Charlie Cook wrote on Wednesday: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/unicorn-election-red-america

“Next Tuesday will be a unicorn election, certainly unlike any of the 11 midterm and 11 presidential elections I have covered. The dynamics are fundamentally different. The most critical segment is not “pure independents.” Nor is it “soft Democrats” or, for that matter, “soft Republicans.” Furthermore, unlike many elections, it doesn’t hinge on the behavior of swingy suburban voters.

Instead, the critical group in this election consists of normally reliable Republicans, many of whom would never normally consider voting for a Democrat. Many of them live in small towns and cities, mountain areas, wooded areas, deserts, and especially farmland. Many drive mid-sized or full-sized pickup trucks, and do so over longer distances than urban and suburban voters. They are also involved in or adjacent to the agricultural economy. They see high gas prices, tariffs, and trade wars, particularly with longtime allies and neighbors, as particularly irksome.

This group sees President Trump as having made some colossally bad decisions, particularly the attack on Iran and trade policies that have made it hard for them to keep their farms and businesses afloat.”

In Colorado the Secretary of State releases daily ballots cast each day at or about Noon totaling the count from the preceding day. It identifies categories of registered active voters who cast by party affiliation (or unaffiliated) and also provides tabs to look at county returns.

Yesterday I dug through and made comparisons to 2022 turnout by state cumulative returns and found

Statewide returns 10/29/2026 https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/newsRoom/pressReleases/2026/20261029GeneralElectionBallotReturn.pdf

Unaffiliated voters: 519,813 cast, which is roughly 72% greater than 2022 same days

Democratic voters: 390,992 cast, which is roughly 24% greater than 2022 same days

Republican: 210,916 cast, which is roughly 6% greater than 2022 same days

I live in Colorado Springs which comprises 98% of CD-5, historically never elected a Democratic candidate county-wide or a Democratic candidate for CD-5 (which used to encompass large swaths of mountain counties but because of population influx over the last twenty-five years, Colorado now has eight CD’s as El Paso County is practically a self contained CD.) CD-5 has now emerged as a toss-up race where a one-term Republican incumbent candidate faces Captain Jessica Killin-Ret a well funded and highly capable candidate.

El Paso County returns ( I don’t have comparable 2022 data, but I do know that turnout same day numbers are ) but I know on Wednesday it was reported that county turnout is running about 50% greater than 2022.

UFA: 64,640 cast

Dems: 34,540 votes cast

Reps: 48,220 votes cast

3rds: 2,339 votes cast

Now let cut into the data: UFA’s in El Paso County over the last three election cycles continue to split Democratic and in 2024 it split at 55-45%. In El Paso County the UFA’s comprise 52%+ of the registered active voter universe while Republicans comprise 32% and Democrats 17% and the rest are 3rd party registrants. Here is where the UNICORN year arrives both for the nation and our county.

Polling data from both Democratic and Republican campaigns have revealed that UFA’s in the county are splitting 60-65%, and a former conservative consultant polling friend told me that this year that universe can reach 70%; he was truly scared, as he said both campaigns are talking about the 7 to 3 split. Take that with what Charlie Cook is seeing in the Republican voter universe that I have heard that 1 in 5 “reliable and traditional” Republicans are either voting Democratic or not at all (abstaining). Inherent in all elections are party registrant voters who split usually less than 1 in 10, running between 5-9% depending on candidates and election cycles. This is baked in, so in GOTV operations is why they focus on their own party registrations to move these numbers in single digits in toss up close elections.

This is why Charlie Cook has identified this year as a Unicorn Year (AKA (or a seminal moment), generally refers to a rare, exceptional outlier period where market or political conditions align in a once-in-a-generation moment). It suggests a big power change. I am ahead of myself saying its suggesting a realignment (1930-1936 for the FDR generation, 1980-1984 the Reagan generation), that takes three plus election cycles to cement. This could be as temporary as 2006-2008, only time will tell but the unicorn is appearing in the data six days out from election closing closing date.

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