One way or another, this year’s gubernatorial race will be one to remember.
If incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott prevails, he’ll be the first governor in Texas elected to a fourth term. If the victory goes to his Democratic challenger, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin), Texas will have its first Democratic governor since Ann Richards left office in 1995.
Here’s some background on the March primary, the most recent polling, fundraising information, and top issues in the race.
Unlike the 2022 gubernatorial election, which saw a melee between Abbott and several Republican contenders challenging him from the right, this year’s primary election ended with a comfortable margin of victory for the governor. Abbott won the Republican primary with about 82 percent of the vote, according to the Texas Secretary of State. Meanwhile, Hinojosa beat eight other contenders in the Democratic primary and secured almost 59 percent of the vote.
Survey respondents have named economic issues, such as inflation and jobs, as their foremost concern in several major Texas polls, and both gubernatorial candidates have responded accordingly.
Abbott’s platform includes several proposals intended to lower costs associated with insurance, homebuying, and health care. Concrete legislative ideas include establishing a roof fortification grant program, allowing developers to build pre-approved house designs, and capping monthly co-pays for inhalers and epinephrine at $25.
Abbott’s platform also includes property tax reforms, such as ending school district property taxes for homeowners, requiring two-thirds voter approval for rate hikes, and creating a new petition process to force an election to lower rates.
Hinojosa, who has cast herself as an economic populist, frequently criticizes Abbott for high average property taxes, no-bid state contracts, and the state’s new education savings account program, which she calls “the voucher scam.”
Hinojosa has proposed distributing $1,500 checks to each Texas household from the state’s Economic Stabilization Fund, colloquially called the Rainy Day Fund. She has also called for an end to tax breaks for big corporations and vowed to “preserve homeownership for Texans by stopping private equity firms from buying up housing.”
Data center development has been a major issue in the race. Hinojosa has called for a total moratorium on new build approvals and for a special legislative session on the issue. In turn, Abbott has directed executive branch agencies to rigorously regulate data center development, culminating in a September order to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality to temporarily halt all permits sought by data centers.
Mirroring other statewide races, Abbott has blasted Hinojosa for her stance on social issues, especially on gender ideology, while Hinojosa has generally focused more on affordability.
All recent polls show Abbott leading. Surveys conducted by YouGov, ActiVote, Verasight, Beacon Research, Emerson College, Slingshot Strategies, and the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs — the most recent major polls, with survey dates ranging from October 10 to October 21 — all put Abbott ahead by a range of 1 to 5 percentage points, according to the New York Times.
Some polls conducted in September put Hinojosa ahead, including surveys by ReconMR, Marist Poll, and the New York Times.