Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 11’s game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas walks in off a bye with grief still fresh, trying to turn mourning for Marshawn Kneeland into purpose and structure, not just speeches. The Raiders stagger in from another prime-time gut punch, a blocked punt and a missed kick costing them Denver and a coach his job. Under the lights it is less fireworks, more fluorescent grind: two new coaching staffs, two wounded units, one season hanging by a thread on each sideline. These are the nights where all that midnight film and quiet roster churn either cashes or gets exposed. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 11’s game between the the Las Vegas Raiders and the Dallas Cowboys.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
On one side is Brian Schottenheimer’s offense, which has quietly become a top-shelf machine: fourth in points with 263 and over 3,400 yards already, living near the top 10 in both third-down conversions and red-zone touchdown rate. Dak Prescott’s 17-6 touchdown-to-interception line frames intentional aggression, and his third-down rhythm is the hinge that keeps drives alive. George Pickens is playing like a true alpha, sitting top five in receiving yards with six scores and a silly contested-catch hit rate north of 60%. That profile stresses a Raiders defense allowing 45% conversions on third down, living middle of the league in points but constantly bailing water. Up front, Tyler Booker and Tyler Smith give Dallas plus run blocking, while Raiders lineman Jonah Laulu owns a sub-baseline run-defense grade and a thin pass-rush win rate. If Schottenheimer leans into 11 personnel, tempo and layered play-action, Dallas should still find efficiency even if the explosives come in waves, not avalanches.
The cleanest Raiders case lives on the other matchup card: the league’s 31st offense against the league’s 31st defense. Pete Carroll’s unit has managed only 139 points, a meager 15.4 per game, yet it sits 15th in third-down rate, which hints at a functional skeleton under the ugly headlines. Ashton Jeanty gives them real gravity; he owns more than 70% of the Raiders’ rushing yards, sits over 70% of team carries and has stacked 20-plus red-zone attempts with six rushing touchdowns. Brock Bowers leads the team in red-zone targets despite missed time, and Dallas has allowed 25 touchdowns on 36 red-zone trips, almost 70%, with 14 of the last 20 arriving through the air. Geno Smith just got sacked six times and held under 200 yards in Denver, but he also has Kelly’s blessing to cut it loose and chase a turnover margin that is starting to normalize. Against a Cowboys defense allowing 30.8 points per game and bleeding more than 52% on third down, that is a real path to competence and a cover.
But the more I weigh it, the Raiders side depends on clean pockets behind a compromised interior and a rookie guard drawing Quinnen Williams in his first real start. Williams arrives with an elite run-defense grade, more than 20 stops and a history of top-tier pressure numbers, now dropped right over the weak link in this line. Dallas can pair him with Kenny Clark and a refreshed Logan Wilson to rebuild the spine of a unit that has been soft in the middle. Matt Eberflus can live in five-man fronts and simulated pressure, trusting Lamb, Pickens and Javonte Williams to keep the scoreboard moving enough that he can trade some underneath completions for negative plays later. Meanwhile, the Raiders offense still falls apart inside the 20, sitting bottom five in red-zone touchdown rate; that is a bad pairing with a coach who wants four-down aggression but has not solved protection. Add in a special-teams group that just got its coordinator fired after multiple blocks and a crucial miss, and the hidden yardage tilts away from the underdog quickly.
Cowboys vs. Raiders pick, best bet
Market-wise, we are sitting with Dallas laying 3.5 on the road and a total parked around 49.5, near the top of the Week 11 board. The Cowboys are just 4-5 against the number and win only 40% of the time as favorites, with an ugly 1-4 road mark. They are also winless against the spread in games laying at least 3.5, while the Raiders have quietly gone 4-5 ATS and covered once already in this underdog band. Dallas games have cleared the total in six of nine, with their average combined score hovering right at this number, while Vegas has only three overs, dragged down by offensive anemia. Splits show public money gravitating toward the Cowboys and a chunk of models nudging toward Raiders plus the points, often with a correlated over. I see why, but the on-field matchups still grade as Dallas by more than a field goal unless their defense stays historically bad on money downs.
Game-flow wise, I expect Schottenheimer to lean into spread-and-shallow rhythm throws early, living in 11 personnel to isolate Pickens and CeeDee Lamb on a rotating corner group and to force Patrick Graham into lighter boxes. That should let Javonte Williams hammer duo and inside zone behind Booker and Smith once the front starts to widen, building drive length and holding Kelly’s offense on the sideline. On defense, Eberflus can deploy more five-man structures with Clark and Williams collapsing the A-gaps, Wilson carrying Jeanty on angle and option routes and the back end sitting on the quick game while daring Geno to hitch into interior pressure. The Raiders will land some shots—Bowers on seams against a red-zone unit that has been torched, Jeanty punching in one drive on volume—but their protection and special teams still invite the back-breaking moment. Dallas plays with Kneeland’s name on their minds, the offense carries the weight and the reshaped front seven does just enough.
I am on Cowboys -3.5, with Dallas winning 31-24.
Best bet: Cowboys -3.5 (-105) at Raiders
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For a prop lean, If I’m hunting a prop, I’d rather ride Jake Ferguson 5+ receptions (-120) than lean into any fragile side. The matchup funnels volume toward his role: Las Vegas has allowed 25 touchdowns on 36 red-zone trips and more than 52% conversions on third down, which keeps Ferguson’s underneath workload active whenever Schottenheimer spreads the field in 11 personnel. The Raiders’ coverage rules tilt toward bracketing Lamb and protecting the boundary against Pickens, and that rotation opens the stick, option and pivot calls that Ferguson eats through. He’s cleared five catches in five of his last seven, and this script favors steady targets if Dallas leans on tempo and early-down rhythm throws. I like 5+ at -120.
Best prop lean: Jake Ferguson 5+ receptions (-120)
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