North Texas’ population is set to boom.
Between 2013 and 2023, the population of seven counties (Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Kaufman, Rockwall and Tarrant) added 1 million residents. In the next decade, the North Texas population is expected to grow from 8.3 million to 10 million, according to the Texas Demographic Center.
As more people move into the region, families may have fewer neighborhood schools. Grapevine-Colleyville ISD is pushing forward on a proposal to close two elementary schools. McKinney ISD has decided to close three elementary campuses. Fort Worth ISD is shuttering 18 schools by June 2029.
Reader Richard Burgess submitted a question to Curious Texas about this confusing phenomenon: With the population increasing in North Texas, why are so many school districts closing schools?
Curious Texas
Experts point to declining enrollment and budget strains.
Public schools are struggling to fill their seats as competition with other modes of schooling — charter, private and home schooling — escalates. Birth rates are decreasing, and the cost of housing is pushing young families out.
School districts are also dealing with deepening financial pressures. Consolidation presents a viable option to help ease monetary burdens.
Declining enrollment
The people coming into Texas are coming to join the workforce. They’re coming with their families. And they aren’t sending their kids to neighborhood schools.
They’re looking at options like charter, private and homeschooling, said Bob Templeton. He is the vice president of the School Segment at Zonda Education, a team that calculates enrollment projections.
He said the expansion of school choice has been the biggest driver of declining enrollment. Twenty years ago, neighborhood schools held the “monopoly” over student attendance, Templeton said. Now, Texas parents have more choices than ever.
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In the 2024-25 school year, about 436,000 students were enrolled in charter schools, and 334,000 were enrolled in private schools, according to the Texas Private Schools Association. Another 500,000 to 620,000 Texas students were homeschooled, according to Texas Home School Coalition estimates.
The most seismic change in enrollment patterns comes from homeschooling, according to Templeton. The pandemic reshaped parents’ minds about what learning at home could look like, he noted.
From spring 2020 to fall 2020, the percentage of Texas homeschooled students increased from 4.5% to 12.3%, according to the U.S. census data. With hybrid work schedules, parents don’t have to go into the office as often, which offers more flexibility with their kids’ education, he said.
“[During the pandemic], families saw that this could work. We can survive at home together and have the resources available through technology and online curriculums to do schooling at home,” he said.
These trends left a dent in public school enrollment. Numbers indicate that student enrollment in neighborhood schools is declining in both urban and suburban areas.
In the 2014-15 school year, almost 160,000 students were enrolled in Dallas ISD schools, which dropped to about 140,000 in the 2024-25 school year. In Fort Worth ISD, there were about 86,000 students in 2014-15; almost a decade later, that number hovered around 70,000. Arlington ISD had 64,000 students in the 2014-15 school year. Ten years later, there were 53,000 students.
Sometimes, as a neighborhood ages, closing a school is a natural choice. But “this is a new era for these kinds of enrollment patterns,” Templeton said.
In all seven counties, the birth rate declined from 2007 to 2020, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. In Collin County, it fell from 15.53 in 2007 to 10.64 in 2020. In Denton County, the birth rate dropped from 15.43 in 2007 to 10.84 by 2020. Dallas County saw the birth rate go from 19.38 to 13.7 in the same time frame. Across the state, the birth rate fell by almost 21% between 2007 and 2019, according to Children at Risk, a Texas education advocacy group.
The trend, which has been unfolding worldwide, signals women now have better opportunities in the labor force, said Lloyd Potter, Texas state demographer. Birth control has reduced unintended pregnancies and fewer couples are choosing to have kids.
People are also relocating out of Dallas and Tarrant counties — where there have been several school closures — into the suburban ring counties, Potter said. Younger families are looking for more affordable housing and lower costs of living.
Lower-priced houses tend to yield higher elementary school enrollment, while expensive houses attract an older family, Templeton said.
The enrollment crisis doesn’t hold true for all North Texas school districts, experts noted. Dallas ISD’s enrollment exceeded projections for the 2024-25 school year, over 1,500 more students than the district had anticipated. In Grayson County — where the population is “growing like crazy,” as Potter described — Celina ISD is looking to build 10 new schools. Its enrollment is set to triple by the 2033-34 school year.
In Tarrant County, Grapevine-Colleyville ISD, which is moving to close two elementary schools, has seen its enrollment fall by 12% since 2019. Fort Worth ISD’s enrollment dropped by 15%, compared to the 2019-20 school year. In Collin County, McKinney ISD has the capacity to serve 9,500 students, but only about 6,000 are enrolled, according to the district website.
Financial challenges
School districts that are strapped for cash see closures as an avenue to ease their financial challenges.
For example, for Grapevine-Colleyville ISD, closing up to three schools could save the district about $3 million, as the district faces a budget shortfall that could mount to over $6 million by fiscal year 2029. For the past five years, McKinney ISD has been operating at a budget deficit, and though they reduced expenditures by $15 million this year, school officials still say campus consolidation is the only option. In Frisco ISD, district officials estimated that shuttering Staley Middle School will save about $4 million in maintenance and operations costs.
Districts have grappled with stagnant funding from the state, which directs money based on a per-student allotment. Since 2019, the basic allotment remained at $6,160 per student. Earlier this year, the state raised the base amount by $55 per student for the 2026-27 school year. Even so, district leaders point out the $55 increase is not enough to keep up with inflation. The increase would need to be more than $1,000 to keep up.
“It was a good start, but they still have a long way to go just to keep up with those inflationary pressures,” said Bob Popinski , dean of policy for Raise Your Hand Texas, a public education advocacy group. “The bump, although great for school districts, didn’t give them nearly what they needed.”
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School districts are “incredibly constrained” on how to generate revenue, Popinski said. They have some options — but they’re not enough to solve the money problems.
To save funds, districts can increase class sizes, lay off staff or rid programs. Districts also can ask voters for bonds. In November, Richardson ISD, where four elementary schools consolidated, received voter approval for school bond projects that would give $1.4 billion worth of improvements to programs and facilities. Dallas ISD is compiling a $6 billion bond package wish list, spanning facility renovations, equipment upgrades and construction. The proposal could be voted on in May or November 2026.
Opting into TEA programs offers a “little boost,” like the Teacher Incentive Allotment, a program that rewards effective educators. Schools that use Bluebonnet Learning, state-developed instructional materials, receive additional state funding.
“I think every school board would love to keep open their neighborhood campuses for all sorts of reasons, but in some instances, they just don’t have the funds to do it,” Popinski said.
Texas’ new education savings account program, scheduled to launch in the 2026-27 school year, could intensify school districts’ financial predicament. The school voucher-style plan will let parents use state dollars to fund their kids’ private schooling and homeschooling.
Public school advocates worry money will be funneled away from public schools and turn families away from neighborhood schools.
“There is a potential that the school district budget will take a severe hit because of this voucher program,” Popinski said.
Families wonder. What now?
For those attending neighborhood schools, the prospect of a closure is painful. Schools serve as community hubs, where lineages of families have passed through hallways and students have befriended one another.
As uncertainty looms, some North Texas community members have urged their school boards to find solutions. Parents have packed school board meetings, and others have organized rallies and meetings, all in the hope of saving their schools.
In Grapevine-Colleyville ISD, parents huddled in a room and on posters taped on the walls, they wrote down questions about and alternatives to school consolidation. In Coppell ISD, parents organized a walk and ride to school as a protest to emphasize the accessibility of their elementary school, which was slated to close. Trustees eventually voted against its consolidation.
“You need a strong plan,” Paul Heeg, a Coppell ISD parent, said in an interview. “Cutting an elementary school — the heart of the community — is not the right move. It’s stabbing the heart of what matters.”
As North Texas’ demographics shift and population grows, experts say public schools need to start getting creative. Historically, public schools have not touted their achievements, but they need to start campaigning to draw in students, said Templeton, who tracks data on schools for Zonda Education.
“The school districts are really going to need to really promote their success, and that’s kind of a new thing for school districts,” Templeton said.
The DMN Education Lab deepens the coverage and conversation about urgent education issues critical to the future of North Texas.
The DMN Education Lab is a community-funded journalism initiative, with support from Bobby and Lottye Lyle, Communities Foundation of Texas, The Dallas Foundation, Dallas Regional Chamber, Deedie Rose, Garrett and Cecilia Boone, Judy and Jim Gibbs, The Meadows Foundation, The Murrell Foundation, Ron and Phyllis Steinhart, Solutions Journalism Network, Southern Methodist University, Sydney Smith Hicks, and the University of Texas at Dallas. The Dallas Morning News retains full editorial control of the Education Lab’s journalism.