COLLEGE STATION — Texas A&M football‘s chances of making the College Football Playoff appear to be nearly 100%, according to ESPN. However, the likelihood of reaching its first SEC championship game is less certain.
With two weeks remaining in the regular season, multiple teams are still in contention for the Southeastern Conference title game.
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Four teams in the SEC have one loss or fewer, setting the stage for a thrilling finish to the year. The Aggies currently lead the way with a perfect 7-0 conference record, while Georgia (7-1), Ole Miss (6-1) and Alabama (6-1) aren’t far behind.
Understanding how everything could unfold can be quite overwhelming.
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With various tiebreaker rules and several head-to-head matchups still in play, it may be difficult to keep track of it all.
Here’s an explanation of the SEC title-game picture and what Texas A&M must do to ensure a spot:
The National Championship trophy is seen on the field before the Texas A&M Aggies take on the South Carolina Gamecocks during the first quarter at Kyle Field on Nov. 15, 2025 in College Station.
Alex Slitz/Getty Images
Who still has a shot at SEC championship game?
The reason why it is so unclear who will compete for the SEC title is that the four aforementioned teams still have a chance. (Oklahoma and Texas were eliminated this past week.)
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And Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss each play one more conference game.
It looks like it will come down to the wire to determine which two teams will play Dec. 6 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
According to ESPN analytics, Alabama versus Georgia has the highest odds of happening at 38%, followed by Alabama versus Texas A&M (33%), Georgia versus Texas A&M (19%) and Georgia versus Ole Miss (10%). It appears those analytics are predicting an A&M loss (to Texas) and Alabama (over Auburn) win the final week of the season, since that’s the only scenario in which the Aggies don’t make the title game.
ESPN analytics are usually based on its Football Power Index, which uses a variety of metrics to rank college football’s top teams. The network also has the Allstate predictor, which lists 24 teams with the best chance to make the 12-team playoff, ordered from most likely to least likely.
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According to the metric, Ohio State, Indiana and A&M have a greater than 99% chance to make the playoff field.
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How A&M, other teams can clinch spot in SEC championship
The simplest way in for A&M is just to win.
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While a loss would seriously hurt their CFP chances and damage their legitimacy, the Aggies’ Week 13 game against Samford doesn’t impact the SEC championship race.
For A&M, defeating Texas in Austin during the regular season finale is the straightforward route to an SEC title appearance. However, if the Aggies drop that Week 14 matchup, they basically miss out on the title game.
At 7-1 in conference play, A&M would then need both Alabama and Ole Miss to lose in the final week.
For Georgia to be in, it would take an Alabama loss or Texas A&M loss or an Ole Miss win and winning strength of schedule over Alabama, once SOS is finalized as season’s end. For Alabama, it would take a win plus a Texas A&M loss or a win plus an Ole Miss loss or a win plus winning strength of schedule over Georgia.
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Ole Miss’s path is a bit simpler: a win along with a Texas A&M loss and an Alabama loss would secure a spot.
Tie-breaking scenarios
The SEC has a specific set of tiebreaking scenarios to help sort things out.
According to the SEC website, “In the event three or more teams are tied for first place in the Conference standings, the procedure below will be used in descending order.”
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A. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
B. Record versus all common conference opponents among the tied teams
C. Record against highest (best) placed common conference opponent in the conference standings, and proceeding through the conference standings among the tied teams
D. Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among the tied teams
E. Capped relative total scoring margin (see Appendix A) per SportSource Analytics versus all conference opponents among the tied teams
F. Random draw of the tied teams
If a tiebreaker produces standings with two teams tied for first place in league play, they are both selected for the championship game. To decide the seeding of the two teams, they will progress through the two-team tiebreaker procedures, which determine the home and away designation for the SEC Champion
Reach Texas A&M beat reporter Tony Catalina via email at Anthony.Catalina@statesman.com.