Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for Sunday’s game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys in Week 12.
Perhaps the biggest game of NFL Week 12 takes place in the afternoon window as an NFC East showdown takes center stage. The Philadelphia Eagles are still atop the conference standings as they push for another Super Bowl, but the Dallas Cowboys are finally showing signs of growth that could keep them in the mix for a Wild Card berth if everything breaks right. These sides hate each other, and with some added drama after the infamous spitting incident in Week 1, this matchup has likely been circled on both calendars.
Read on for an Eagles vs. Cowboys prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Week 12 duel.
Eagles vs. Cowboys prediction, preview
Philadelphia Eagles
Is there much doubt the Eagles are the NFC’s best team? As it turns out, very little… which is why it’s so frustrating to see this offense trip over itself week in and week out. Philly has an 8-2 record thus far with some standout wins and an offense that averages 23.4 PPG (16th), but only posts 300.1 yards per contest (25th). The play calling from first-year coordinator Kevin Patullo leaves much to be desired with questionable deployment of A.J. Brown and uninspiring usage of Saquon Barkley, even if the offensive line is banged up to lower the ceiling of this rushing attack. The Eagles are sixth in rushes per game but only 17th in average rushing yards, and there’s still not much to talk about via the air with the second-fewest pass attempts. Jalen Hurts does protect the football well, but the Dallas offense may challenge Philadelphia enough to force a more uptempo attack. Defensively, things are looking much better as of late with 20.1 PPG allowed (eighth) along with 326.8 yards per game conceded (17th). The Eagles are getting healthier on that side and the infusion of Jaelan Phillips at the trade deadline added a much-needed pass-rushing threat as well. Philadelphia has pressured the quarterback at a high rate lately, but still doesn’t force many turnovers with just 1.0 takeaways per game.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are a conundrum of sorts. On a view purely based on record, they’re objectively mid at best with a 4-5-1 figure by their name. However, there’s so much context to view this team with. Dallas’ defense was banged up for much of the season and has gotten healthier, and the addition of Quennin Williams also plays a massive role in boosting the outlook on that side of the ball. They allow 29.3 PPG this year (31st) as well as 381.3 yards (30th), but looked much better this past week coming out of the bye against the Raiders and held Las Vegas to 16 points and 236 yards of offense. Small sample against a bad team, but there’s reason to believe the defense will look at least passable moving forward. If it can, Dallas could be worth keeping an eye on to close the season. The offense averages 29.6 PPG (second-most) and 378.7 yards (third-most) behind top-10 caliber play from Dak Prescott and his elite receiver duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. The Cowboys post a league-best 258.7 yards through the air per contest and throw at the third-highest rate, meaning they’ll put this Philadelphia secondary to the test. Dallas can also run the ball behind a strong offensive line though with 120.0 rushing yards per game thanks to a still-resurgent Javonte Williams. Again, if the defense can even become slightly below average, this could be a team that sneaks into the postseason if all breaks in its favor.
Eagles vs. Cowboys pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Eagles are three-point road favorites with -162 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Cowboys are listed at +136 to win outright with a game total of 47.5 points.
To be clear, Philadelphia should be favored in this contest. After all, the Eagles have a far superior defense that’s only gotten stronger as the season progresses and can survive games when the offense doesn’t click into place on the backs of that unit. Dallas, however, must score a ton of points week in and week out until proven otherwise. If the offense falters for even a moment, it could mean instant points for the opponent.
Granted, that could be changing slightly if there truly are some improvements for the Cowboys. A defensive interior with Kenny Clark and Quinnen Williams should challenge Barkley on inside runs and keep him from regaining the efficiency we saw last year. That lack of long runs has been a concerning trend for Philadelphia’s run game all season. However, if the Eagles decide to let loose and throw a little more than usual, Jalen Hurts can easily pick on this secondary and A.J. Brown could show flashes of his alpha self rather than the subdued performances in recent memory. Dallas did play a zone on every dropback last time these teams played though, so it’s possible the Eagles still don’t manage to unleash the intermediate and deep passing game, instead relying on the short throw to dink-and-dunk their way downfield.
If the Cowboys’ offense can show up from the opening kickoff, they’ll need to jump out to an early lead and keep their foot on the gas to have a chance. Lamb and Pickens are nearly impossible to guard, and while Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper Dejean and Andrew Mukuba are all talented defensive backs, the Eagles’ opponents have constantly picked on Adoree’ Jackson as the weak link. In a perfect world, he doesn’t see many matchups with the two elite receivers… but that’s unlikely. Expect Prescott to take advantage of that matchup and orchestrate a high-volume passing attack, but the name of the game will be avoiding sacks and turnovers against this group. If Dallas plays a clean game, I like them on the alt line at +3.5.
Best bet: DAL Cowboys -3.5 (-138)