Former San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg far from a shoo-in to unseat Bexar County Judge Peter Sakai

Former San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg speaks at his campaign launch party. Credit: Michael Karlis

Last week, after significant speculation, former San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg finally announced he would seek to unseat Peter Sakai in the Democratic primary for Bexar County judge.

“Five months ago, I walked out of the mayor’s office for the last time,” Nirenberg said in front of hundreds of supporters at north-of-downtown gathering spot Backyard on Broadway. “Since then, I’ve heard a lot of rumors about my political future. As you’ve heard, my North Star has always been the people of this community and the work that needs to be done right here.”

Even so, Nirenberg’s announcement came months after he told the Express-News in January that he had “no interest in the county judge position.” To be sure, the former mayor had once been talked about as a possible contender for a Biden White House job, and earlier this fall, the chattering class speculated that he’d set his sights on running for governor or federal office.

So, why the change of heart?

Experts tell the Current county judge is the seat that Nirenberg could feasibly win.

“I think he peered out and realized he didn’t really have a path to federal office, and he wasn’t inclined to go to Washington since Democrats aren’t in charge,” UT-San Antonio political scientist Jon Taylor said. “So, he probably thought if he was going to run for something and leverage something like positive vibes about him as mayor, then the best opportunity is to run for county judge.”

To Taylor’s point, Nirenberg left the mayor’s office with a 56% approval rating, according to an April 2025 survey by UT-San Antonio’s Center for Public Opinion Research. What’s more, political observers argue he has better name recognition than Sakai, who’s remained relatively unknown despite leading one of Texas’s largest counties for the past four years.

‘Not a lot of ideological daylight’

There’s just one problem: it may be difficult for Nirenberg to convince Democratic voters that change is in order when it comes to county judge.

“There’s not a whole lot of ideological daylight between the two,” said political consultant Kelton Morgan, who served as a consultant on Nirenberg’s 2017 and 2019 mayoral races.

“The contrast that Ron is trying to present is that we need strong leadership. That’s not the kind of bullshit that motivates people to vote,” Morgan added. “You can’t be running against an incumbent in a primary and say that without pointing to the failures of leadership of the person you’re running against.”

While the media-shy Sakai hasn’t exactly seized the spotlight, he hasn’t necessarily done anything to turn people against him either. That much is event evident from a recent endorsement from the Deputy Sheriff’s Association of Bexar County, which last week said its members will continue their endorsement of Sakai until “there’s some reason to rescind it.”

Sakai also vocally supported Propositions A and B, which raised the county visitor tax to 2% to publicly finance a new Spurs arena and fund improvements to the area surrounding the Frost Bank Center. Nirenberg also supported the propositions, both of which passed.

“Honestly, the best thing for Ron would have been if those failed,” Morgan said. “If that had failed, people would be pissed at Sakai, donors would be pissed at Sakai and Ron would have an opening. But Ron doesn’t have that.”

Ready to Work?

On the other hand, Nirenberg’s candidacy does come with baggage, most notably San Antonio’s job training program, Ready for Work, which has yet to meet expectations for the number of individuals served and placed in new positions. Ambitious new programs can be slow-building affairs, but opponents still could weaponize the sluggish movement.

“Anybody who wants to [run against Nirenberg] should hang Ready to Work around his neck like an anchor,” Morgan said. “That has been the most disastrous policy failure by any possible metric.”

Sakai’s lack of controversy and the baggage Nirenberg picked up during his years at City Hall suggest it’s the former mayor’s race to lose, according to Democratic political consultant Bert Santibañez.

Most analysts watching the race aren’t taking the top of the Democratic primary ticket into account, Santibañez added. Those include popular candidates who could turn higher turnout, including State Reps. Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico, who are running for governor and the U.S. Senate, respectively.

“I think we’ll see an increase in turnout overall,” Santibañez said. “I think that favors Nirenberg, because it’ll bring out more progressives or younger voters. Sakai, his voting block is typically seniors.”

Further, any upcoming elections, local or national, are expected to be referendums on the Trump presidency. That means Democrats will likely gravitate toward, younger, fierier candidates who appear better able to stand up to the president and his ally, Gov. Greg Abbott, Santibañez said

Looking for leadership

Another factor that may play in Nirenberg’s favor is current Mayor Gina Ortiz Jones, who still appears to be settling into her role and learning the ropes.

The county judge position is elastic and can be modeled in a way that best serves the person who holds office, UTSA’s Taylor said. For example, former Bexar County Judge Nelson Wolff wielded considerable power thanks to his dealmaking prowess, whereas Sakai has taken a more nuanced approach.

Santibañez speculates that voters may be missing Nirenberg’s ability to build coalitions and consensus as mayor. They may yearn to see him bring that skill set to the county judge’s office.

“There is a lack of direction and leadership in the Mayor’s Office and a lack of vision or someone that can build consensus,” Santibañez said. “Ron, when he was mayor, was able to do that really well. So, I think it makes sense in the county judge position that he would approach it the same way, and I think there’s a need for that type of steady, assertive leadership.”

With a little over three months to go before the March 6 Democratic primary, the biggest challenge for Nirenberg may be fundraising, Morgan said.

The political consultant speculates Nirenberg will need at least $1.5 million to run a respectable campaign against a well-liked incumbent. The former mayor had just $7,000 in cash on hand last month, according to his most recent campaign finance report.

As the race heats up, Morgan added, Sakai’s biggest weakness may prove to be his humility.

“Peter should sing his own successes a little bit louder,” Morgan said.

Subscribe to SA Current newsletters.

Former San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg far from a shoo-in to unseat Bexar County Judge Peter Sakai

Tags: