I don’t know what the future holds for conference championship games. With further playoff expansion seemingly always on the horizon, as well as changes to the format that may or may not include multiple automatic qualifiers per some conferences, or maybe even other leagues not getting them at all, the future is murky.
If we look at the nine games scheduled this weekend, only three have “win and in” ramifications when it comes to the college football playoff: the ACC, American and Big 12. And even the Big 12 is probably only “win and in” for one of the two participants, as Texas Tech seems locked into the field.
But you know what? While the entire world focuses on the College Football Playoff, we glance over the fact that every single one of these teams wants to win its league. You don’t put in all the time and effort these players and coaches do to not care about winning a championship, even if it isn’t the national kind.
Playoff ramifications or not, we’ve got nine games between 18 teams fighting for a trophy and the right to call themselves champions. I hope I can match their effort with my picks this weekend. God knows this is the only way The Six Pack will get close to sniffing a title this year.
Games of the Week
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Indiana: Indiana is a better team this year than the version we saw last season. I know that’s some hard-hitting analysis, but it’s worth stating upfront: these Hoosiers are far more capable of beating Ohio State than they were a year ago — even though I believe this Ohio State team is better, too.
When the spread opened at Ohio State -5.5, I thought it would shrink. Power ratings show the Buckeyes have separated from the rest of the country, but they’re typically only about a field goal better than Indiana. Factor in that the game is in Indianapolis and that gives the Hoosiers a slight boost, even if Ohio State fans will pack the building. Then there’s Ohio State’s performance against the spread, which suggests the Buckeyes have actually been underrated. They’re 12-0 straight up and 10-2 against the number, covering by an average of 6.3 points per game. So while I’d take Indiana and the points if forced to pick — even now that it’s moved to 4.5 — I still don’t want to.
I’d rather rely on the most reliable thing in college football: the Ohio State defense. The Buckeyes haven’t allowed more than 16 points in a game all season. Indiana is the best team Ohio State has faced since Texas, but I don’t think it matters. This defense is that good. We’ve seen Indiana’s offense struggle against the best units on its schedule, putting up just 20 on Iowa and failing to dominate despite scoring 30 and 27 against Oregon and Penn State. Ohio State’s defense is better than all three. It might be one of the best in the sport’s modern era.
Indiana might win. Indiana could definitely cover. But how often does it score more than 21 points? The Pick: Indiana Team Total Under 21.5 (-120) at Fanduel
No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 9 Alabama: There is no team in the country that’s been better at making adjustments in-game than Georgia. We saw an example of this in the first meeting between these two. Alabama jumped out to a 24-14 lead in the first half, putting together not one, but two 14-play touchdown drives along the way. Then halftime came, and that was a wrap for the Tide offense. Georgia shut them out in the second half, which has been the theme of their season.
Georgia has allowed 9.3 points per game before halftime and 7.1 afterward. They go into the locker room, identify the problem area, and fix it. I expect a similar approach to this game based on what happened in the first one.
I’m not sure who will win. History suggests it will be Alabama because this is the fifth time these two have met in the SEC Championship, and Alabama has won the first four, as well as 10 of the last 11 meetings overall. Georgia clearly has an Alabama Problem. Still, I think it’s hard to beat the same team twice in the same season, so maybe Georgia gets a bit of an edge here.
Regardless, I expect the first half of the game to be something of a feeling-out period. Plus, Alabama’s offense has not been at its best for about a month now. I like the first half under here more than anything. The Pick: 1st Half Under 23.5 (-102) at DraftKings
Lock of the Week
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 BYU: Another rematch, and one I’m not expecting to look all that different from the original. The first meeting, which took place in Lubbock, finished with a total of 50, and the game came in comfortably under, with Texas Tech winning 29-7. BYU’s offense couldn’t do anything in the game because the offense is built around its run game, and Texas Tech has one of the best rush defenses in the country. It also has a defensive line that overpowered BYU’s offensive line in every way imaginable, and BYU is bringing the same offensive line to this matchup. I don’t know how it will improve because it wasn’t anything schematic that Tech did. It simply beat the Cougars up.
At the same time, it’s not as if BYU’s defense struggled. The Cougars’ offense turned the ball over three times to put the defense in bad spots, but it did an excellent job of holding Texas Tech to field goals instead of touchdowns. That’s been a sore spot for the Red Raiders all season. I don’t know if this one will feel like it’s as big a blowout as the first meeting did, but I expect it’ll feature roughly the same number of points. The Pick: Under 49.5 (-112) at Draftkings
Over of the Week
No. 17 Virginia vs. Duke: Given the ACC’s longstanding tradition of doing the worst thing possible for the ACC, we should fully expect Duke to win this game and cause the league to be left out of the field entirely. But for those who want to pick Duke, you have to come to grips with the fact that Virginia led Duke 31-3 after three quarters in their first meeting before Duke tacked on a couple of touchdowns in the final minutes to make the game look like it was something resembling competitive. Not easy to do!
Virginia’s offense tore Duke apart in the first meeting, and that’s been the case with most teams Duke has faced lately. The Blue Devils defense allowed 3.04 points per drive in November, which ranked 120th nationally. Its 51.8% success rate was even worse at 126th. The Hoos should be able to move the ball pretty well here again, but I think the Blue Devils will have more success there, too. I just get a tennis match vibe from this one. The Pick: Over 57.5 at Fanduel
Playoff Game of the Week
No. 20 Tulane vs. No. 24 North Texas (Friday): Tulane’s Jon Sumrall is leaving for Florida. North Texas’ Eric Morris is heading to Oklahoma State. The winner moves on to the College Football Playoff. The loser gets a head start on the new job. Both would love one more game where they are, but only one gets it.
This line opened with Tulane favored and quickly swung the other way. I completely agree with the movement. Yes, North Texas was blown out by USF in its biggest game of the season, but that was a full-on nightmare, and the Mean Green should be far more competitive here. If they are, I’m not convinced Tulane’s offense can keep pace.
North Texas’ 3.90 points per possession leads the nation, and its 22.1% explosive pass rate ranks second. Tulane’s defense, meanwhile, sits 76th in EPA per dropback and 55th in explosive-pass-rate allowed. That’s not an ideal matchup for the Green Wave. The Green is Meaner on North Texas’ side. The Pick: North Texas -2.5 (-110) at Fanduel
Upset of the Week
Western Michigan vs. Miami OH: There aren’t many obvious choices for Upset of the Week, but Miami (Ohio) is a solid bet to knock off Western Michigan in the MAC Championship. The RedHawks were blown out by Ohio 38-3 in this game last season, but this marks their third straight trip to Ford Field for the title. Western Michigan hasn’t played in the championship since 2016, when Corey Davis helped P.J. Fleck’s Broncos row all the way to the Cotton Bowl.
The Broncos have had a strong season, going 7-1 in MAC play, but they already lost to Miami earlier this year. The scoreboard showed only a nine-point difference, but the game felt more lopsided. Miami has made a quarterback change since then, and it’s worked out well. History could easily repeat itself. The Pick: Miami OH (+110) at Draftkings
Games of the Week
1-1
14-14
-2.44
Lock of the Week
0-1
5-9
-4.96
Upset of the Week0-11-13-11.07
Overall
2-4
36-48
-17.16
Who will win and cover in each conference championship game? Legendary Vegas expert Bruce Marshall is on a 43-36 roll on college football picks. Visit SportsLine now to see all his college football picks.