Cowboys-Lions on Thursday night: Why it’s a must-win for both teams, predictions

A lot happened since the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys met last season.

First, the Lions dominated the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium, 47-9. It started a five-game losing streak for Dallas. For Detroit, it was the third consecutive victory in what turned out to be an 11-game winning streak. It was also when Aidan Hutchinson suffered a season-ending injury. The Cowboys finished 7-10, missed the playoffs and head coach Mike McCarthy was not retained. The injuries continued piling up for the Lions and although they went 15-2, they lost to the Washington Commanders in the divisional round.

Entering the game Thursday night, the Cowboys (6-5-1) and Lions (7-5) find themselves in similar situations in the NFC playoff hunt.

We asked The Athletic’s Jon Machota and Colton Pouncy their thoughts on the prime-time matchup before kickoff tonight at Ford Field (8:15 ET on Amazon).

Would you consider this a must-win game for the team you cover?

Machota: Absolutely. Starting 3-5-1 put the Cowboys in such a hole that a loss Thursday night would drop them to less than a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs even if they won their remaining four games. Dallas is in playoff mode and has been for the last three weeks. Every game is a must-win the rest of the way. And that might be a good thing for the Cowboys. Playing with such a small margin for error has seemed to bring out the best of them.

Pouncy: The Lions called contests against the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers “must-win” games. So, uh, what would that make this? If the Lions drop this one, their playoff hopes will fall from 30 percent to 12 percent, per The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator. The Lions really need this one, and they can’t afford to fall behind yet another team in the wild-card race. It’s absolutely a must-win.

What matchup do both teams absolutely have to win in order to come out on top?

Machota: The Cowboys’ front 7 vs. Jahmyr Gibbs. Since trading for three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, Dallas’ run defense has drastically improved. They went from giving up 143 rushing yards per game the first nine weeks to 70 per game over their last three. The addition of Williams has meant more five-man fronts where the Cowboys play with three defensive tackles, limiting how much opposing teams look to run. But all it takes is one play where Gibbs finds a small hole and turns it into a huge play. The Lions are 5-0 when Gibbs rushes for at least 90 yards. Dallas hasn’t allowed more than 58 yards to a runner the last three games.

Pouncy: I’m curious to see if Detroit’s defensive line can be more disruptive. They have just four sacks in their last four games, and there’s been a noticeable drop-off in production. The Lions are allowing an average of just 2.9 yards of separation in coverage per Next Gen Stats, which is the lowest in the NFL. But when the pass rush is taking too long to pressure (2.92 seconds — slowest in the NFL) and quarterbacks have too much time to throw (2.99 seconds — highest in the NFL), it creates explosive plays. That’s not what you want when facing Lamb and Pickens.

Which player on offense needs to step up most?

Machota: Dak Prescott. He really doesn’t need to elevate his game much. He has played well all season and is back in the MVP conversation. But it’s difficult to see the Cowboys winning if Prescott doesn’t play well. He struggled last year against the Lions, throwing for only 178 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. His 42.2 passer rating in that game is the second-lowest in 134 career games. Of course, he didn’t have George Pickens at that time. Dallas’ last true road game was at Denver in Week 8. That was Prescott’s worst game this season. How he and the Dallas offense handle the Ford Field crowd noise will be an important factor in this game.

Pouncy: Isaac TeSlaa. The Lions parted ways with notable draft capital to select TeSlaa in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft. They’re going to need him now. The offense will likely be without Amon-Ra St. Brown — he’s recovering from a low ankle sprain — on Thursday night. Jameson Williams has already stepped up (seven catches for 144 yards and a touchdown last week), but it’s time to see more from TeSlaa. He caught a touchdown vs. the Packers last week and showed some promise. Jared Goff needs to continue getting comfortable with TeSlaa — both in the short and long term. He’ll be needed to generate offense.

Which player on defense?

Machota: Quinnen Williams. Like Prescott, he really just needs to continue doing what he has been doing. But he’s the pick because he is Dallas’ most important defender. Everything has changed with the defense since the trade for Williams a month ago. He’s been the Cowboys’ most disruptive defender but he’s also opened up things for others to make plays, significantly impacting opposing quarterbacks. His presence has brought confidence to a group that needed it badly. According to Pro Football Focus, Williams had 19 pressures in eight games with the New York Jets before being traded. He has 21 pressures in his three games with the Cowboys.

Pouncy: Aidan Hutchinson. From Weeks 1-9, Hutchinson ranked 11th in the NFL in splash-play rate at 16.1 percent. From Week 10 and on, that number has fallen to 9.8 percent — 101st over the last four weeks. Hutchinson is seeing chips at one of the highest rates in the league and is likely feeling the effects of a high-usage rate in his first full season since 2023. However, the Lions need more from him. Their sack rate since Week 10 is just 3.3 percent — 27th during that stretch.

Prediction?

Machota: Cowboys 24, Lions 20. These two seem to be heading in opposite directions. Dallas has played its best football of the last two seasons over the last six quarters. The Lions have played their worst football of the last three years over their last three games.

Pouncy: Cowboys 27, Lions 24. The Lions haven’t lost two games in a row since the 2022 season, but it certainly feels like that badge is hanging by a thread. Dallas is surging at the right time, Williams and Kenny Clark could be disruptive vs. this interior offensive line, these receivers torch man coverage and the lack of pressure could again be a problem.