The 12-team College Football Playoff bracket will be revealed Sunday afternoon after conference championships are decided. How is Saturday impacting the postseason? Our experts are here to break down the Playoff implications of the Power 4 conference championship games as they finish.

As of 7:45 p.m. ET Saturday, our Playoff projections model viewed Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia and Texas Tech as locks to get first-round byes, with Oregon, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Oklahoma and Tulane safely in the field and Notre Dame and Alabama favored over Miami for the final at-large bids. Check back for updates throughout the day and follow our live coverage of Ohio State-Indiana.

SEC: No. 3 Georgia 28, No. 9 Alabama 8

Georgia avenged a September loss to Alabama to win its third SEC title in four years and lock up a first-round bye. The Bulldogs controlled the game and didn’t allow Alabama to score until the fourth quarter, which will spark a second consecutive bubble debate about Alabama after the Crimson Tide were the first team out last year. Read more about the game here.

What does the win say about Georgia?

The Bulldogs should be a lock for the No. 2 seed behind the Big Ten champion, which would send them to the Sugar Bowl for a Jan. 1 quarterfinal. The SEC Championship Game victory puts Georgia at 12-1, and a win against Alabama in a rematch means the Bulldogs have beaten every team they’ve faced this season.

Georgia’s defense is peaking as it heads into the Playoff, too. The Bulldogs have held their past four opponents (Texas, Charlotte, Georgia Tech and Alabama) to 10 points or less, and Alabama finished with negative rushing yards. No opponent has scored more than 21 points against Georgia since Oct. 18. So the Bulldogs are heading toward a first-round bye, their defense will be a difficult test in any potential Playoff matchup and Georgia has proven it will be one of the favorites to win a third national championship under Kirby Smart. — Antonio Morales

Why Alabama might still be safe

The best argument for keeping Alabama in the Playoff with an at-large bid, should the committee (or anyone) choose to make it, is one college football has historically struggled with: valuing the quality of victories over the number of losses. Yes, the Tide (10-3) now have three losses after their no-show in the SEC Championship Game, one more than No. 10 Notre Dame (10-2), No. 12 Miami (10-2) and No. 11 BYU (11-2). Alabama also has the better overall resume than each of those teams when you factor in who it beat.

A pair of wins against No. 3 Georgia (on the road) and No. 14 Vanderbilt, plus victories over Missouri and Tennessee to finish out that run, are stronger than No. 10 Notre Dame and Pitt (Miami), No. 16 USC and Pitt (Notre Dame) or No. 15 Utah and No. 18 Arizona (BYU). And two of Bama’s three losses were against Playoff teams in Georgia (neutral site) and Oklahoma. We’ll see how the metrics adjust in light of Saturday’s loss, but entering the weekend, Alabama had a better strength of schedule than Notre Dame, Miami and BYU, and a better strength of record than the Fighting Irish and Hurricanes.

The committee has stated teams that lose a conference title can drop in the rankings, though it does seem unfair to penalize a team too harshly for reaching championship weekend — something Miami failed to do and Notre Dame has chosen not to be able to do — and falling to a top-three opponent. It is more than fair to ding the Tide for losing to seven-loss Florida State in what is easily the worst defeat among the at-large bubble teams. But the committee has had no problem distancing its rankings from a Week 1 result between Notre Dame and Miami, so there’s no reason to believe it won’t extend that same courtesy to Alabama.

Our projections agree, giving Alabama an 83 percent chance to get a bid compared to just 17 percent for Miami.

For the second year in a row, there will be little sympathy for a three-loss Alabama team that gets left out of the Playoff, outside of Tuscaloosa and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey. But if the committee decides to keep them in, the strength of the Tide’s victories is the only defensible reason why. — Justin Williams

Why Alabama should be left out

The CFP selection committee wouldn’t really punish conference finalists last year but changed its tune this year. That could (and should) be bad news for Alabama.

The Crimson Tide will likely find themselves battling Notre Dame and Miami for the final two at-large spots. I think Alabama’s case is the weakest. The Crimson Tide’s best win (24-21 at Georgia in September) was just avenged. Their two-score victory over Vanderbilt still holds up, but wins over Missouri and Tennessee are no longer against ranked opponents.

Not only does Alabama now have more losses (three) than the Hurricanes and Irish (two each), but the Crimson Tide have bookended their season with the two worst defeats of the bunch. Saturday’s SEC championship showing was rough. Notre Dame and Miami lost their four games by a combined 13 points. Alabama lost by 21 while finishing with negative rushing yards for the first time ever.

Don’t forget about Alabama’s season-opening 31-17 defeat at Florida State, either. The 5-7 Seminoles were among the nation’s most disappointing teams. CFP selection committee chairman Hunter Yurachek said this week that Texas’ loss to a similarly bad Florida team was “holding them back.” The same logic should apply to Alabama’s loss to Florida State … whom the Gators beat last week. The committee is supposed to consider results against common opponents, which weakens Alabama’s case even more. A month after the Tide fell to FSU in Tallahassee, Miami beat FSU in that same stadium in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates (28-22).  — Matt Baker

Big 12: No. 4 Texas Tech 34, No. 11 BYU 7

Texas Tech fell behind 7-0 in the first quarter but easily captured its first Big 12 championship, scoring 34 unanswered points to punch its ticket to the Playoff. Read more about the game here.

Notre Dame (and Miami) couldn’t have asked for better results

First, Texas Tech removed the most important obstacle from Notre Dame’s Playoff path on championship weekend: two Big 12 teams getting in. The Red Raiders’ blowout win means BYU probably won’t even be a talking point on selection Sunday.

Then, if the committee counts the results of conference championship games and standard data points in its final rankings, it’s hard to imagine another better result for Notre Dame than Georgia blowing out Alabama. Last week, committee chair Hunter Yurachek said the Notre Dame-Alabama debate was on the razor’s edge and some committee members still had the Irish above the Crimson Tide.

Now?

Notre Dame came to its own defense before the weekend, believing that Alabama’s tight win at Auburn shouldn’t have flipped the teams last week. Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said there was “confusion” in how the committee described the flip of their No. 9 and No. 10 teams. Athletic director Pete Bevacqua seconded that sentiment on “The Pat McAfee Show” on Friday. If the Irish and Tide really were that close, Georgia’s decisive win felt like a tiebreaker, which, on top of BYU’s loss, could not only send Notre Dame into the CFP, but make the sport’s breathless debate of the past month moot.

Miami won a Week 1 head-to-head meeting, but Notre Dame has been ahead of Miami since the CFP rankings began — though the gap continues to close and could shrink even more if Saturday’s results are enough for BYU, and maybe even Alabama, to slip behind both. In the end, maybe the answer will be Notre Dame and Miami, not or. At the very least, our projections say Notre Dame should feel confident. — Pete Sampson

How far can Texas Tech go?

Texas Tech and its $25-million roster came into the season with Big 12 title and CFP-or-bust expectations. Mission accomplished. And the Red Raiders are good enough to do more than just qualify for the Playoff.

Texas Tech appears to have secured a first-round bye with its dominant win in which it held the Cougars to 200 total yards and forced four turnovers. It should be the No. 3 or No. 4 seed, depending on how far the Big Ten title game loser falls. An in-state Dec. 31 quarterfinal in the Cotton Bowl is possible, especially if the Red Raiders move up to No. 3.

Regardless of seed, Tech is talented and balanced enough to compete with anyone in the country, with a dominant, top-three defense that gets after the quarterback and an offense that leads the FBS in plays of 20-plus yards. The biggest question mark has been the health of quarterback Behren Morton, who missed two games and parts of others with a nagging leg injury, including the lone loss to Arizona State. Morton, who finished 20 for 33 for 215 yards and two touchdowns against BYU, entered the championship game as healthy as he’s felt all season, and now gets a three-week break before the next game.

The defense will be the equalizer in Texas Tech’s title pursuit, led by FBS sack leader David Bailey (12.5 sacks) and Butkus Award-winning linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. The Red Raiders have allowed fewer than 11 points per game this season, with each win coming by at least 22 points.

Tech won’t be the CFP favorite, but no one in the field wants to line up across from that unit. — Williams

BYU is on the outside looking in

BYU entered Saturday’s game on the outside looking in, as the first team outside of the bracket in the latest CFP rankings. A win would have gotten the Cougars in, but even a narrow loss to a top-five Texas Tech team — had the Cougars played well — could have given BYU at least an argument for sneaking into the field.

The Cougars’ performance left them no outs. They had an impressive opening drive, covering 90 yards in 14 plays to take an early 7-0 lead. But that was pretty much all BYU could muster against Texas Tech’s elite defense. No possession after the Cougars’ first went more than 47 yards, and BYU got sloppy, turning the ball over four times. It managed just 110 yards in the final 53 minutes, 10 seconds of the game.

The game played out a lot like Texas Tech and BYU’s first meeting on Nov. 8, when the Cougars were suffocated and couldn’t get much going at all against the Red Raiders’ defensive front.

For the second straight year, BYU had an impressive season worthy of CFP consideration. Last year, BYU went 10-2 before winning the Alamo Bowl, and this year the Cougars are 11-2. Their resume isn’t bad; they have good wins over No. 15 Utah and No. 18 Arizona. But given that the committee had them outside the bracket before Saturday’s Big 12 championship, it’s unrealistic to imagine a path for them to get in after losing by 24 points and looking as rough as they did. — Sam Khan Jr.

Big Ten: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Indiana

Time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis

What to watch: The hottest ticket in Indy pits No. 1 versus No. 2 in the Big Ten matchup we’ve been craving for months. Ohio State, though largely untested, has been dominant and looks poised to defend its national title after finally vanquishing Michigan. Indiana has an impressive road win at Oregon and was pushed to the brink at Penn State, but the real test is how the Hoosiers and Curt Cignetti stack up against a Buckeyes team that pummeled them 38-15 in Columbus last season. This Indiana team is better than last year’s, with a Heisman-level quarterback, but there are still some questions about whether they are on Ohio State’s level. Both of these teams are locks for the Playoff, and probably for first-round byes, but it’s still the can’t-miss game of a can’t-miss weekend. —  Williams

Follow live coverage of Ohio State-Indiana here.

ACC: No. 17 Virginia vs. Duke

Time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte

What to watch: The ACC Chaos Scenario is real, and it’s spectacular … unless you’re the ACC. Five-loss Duke snuck in the back door of this championship game, the result of only two of those five losses coming in conference play. A Blue Devils win on Saturday night could potentially knock the conference out of the Playoff altogether. A Virginia win would avoid all of that pandemonium and send the Hoos to the CFP while delivering their first ACC title since 1995. It’s another title-game rematch, this one of a Nov. 15 meeting in Durham that Virginia won 34-17, outgaining Duke 540 yards to 255 and holding the Blue Devils to just 42 rushing yards. — Williams

Group of 5 championship results

American: No. 20 Tulane 34, No. 24 North Texas 21

Tulane (11-2) all but locked up a spot by winning what was effectively a play-in game for a College Football Playoff bid, either as the No. 11 (if Duke wins the ACC title) or No. 12 seed (if Virginia wins), meaning a first-round road game — perhaps at Oregon or Ole Miss, pending Saturday’s results.

Sun Belt: No. 25 James Madison 31, Troy 14

James Madison (12-1) has a chance for an unlikely second Group of 5 bid to the Playoff, which grants automatic spots to the five highest-ranked conference champions. JMU could earn that last automatic bid if Duke (7-5) beats Virginia and stays behind JMU in the committee’s rankings.

Conference USA: Kennesaw State 19, Jacksonville State 15

Kennesaw State improved from 2-10 in its first FBS season last year to 10-3 in Year 2 with a conference championship under first-year coach Jerry Mack, who will take the Owls to their first bowl game.

Mountain West: Boise State 38, UNLV 21

Boise State won its third consecutive Mountain West title under Spencer Danielson after beating UNLV for the second time this season. The Broncos are 9-4 and won’t be heading to the Playoff for the second year in a row, with the LA Bowl instead their probable postseason destination.

MAC: Western Michigan 23, Miami (OH) 13

Western Michigan (9-4) earned its first MAC championship since P.J. Fleck was the coach in 2016, while the RedHawks fell to 7-6.

This story will be updated.