The Dallas Cowboys had a brief moment where they had tricked everyone into thinking they were becoming some unstoppable force. Reality crashed into them against the Lions on Thursday night, but it doesn’t take away from the positives this team has actually exhibited as of late. Lets dive into the analytics as we prepare for one final playoff push.
Cowboys Efficiency at a GlanceDVOADVOA RankDVOA Rank Previous RankWeighted DVOAWeighted DVOA RankOffense10.8%9th9th10.3%8thDefense17.5%31st31st16.5%30thSpecial Teams1.5%13th10th1.2%15thOverall-5.2%19th19th-4.2%18th
The Cowboys are the 19th best team by DVOA, which feels about right. With 14 teams making the playoffs, that means they’re just on the outside of that threshold. It’s worth noting that three of their four remaining opponents all rank below them in DVOA, as do two of the teams ahead of them in the conference standings.
Let’s highlight special teams real quick, because it’s been bad. Not only is Dallas third in special teams penalties, but they’re also 25th in hidden points, a DVOA metric that measures the advantage gained by the opponent’s special teams unit. Things like average starting field position and penalties are big there, and it paints a picture of how bad Nick Sorensen’s unit has been outside of his two star players.
2025 NFL Team Tiers, Weeks 1-14, courtesy of rbsdm.com
The Cowboys remain firmly in the bottom right of the team tiers chart, which just reinforces what we’ve known about this team all year long: really good offense, really bad defense. Again, though, three of their four opponents are far behind them here; the one outlier, the Chargers, are nearly even with Dallas in total EPA, albeit with a better defense and worse offense.
Cowboys Offensive EfficiencyGradeRankOffensive DVOA10.8%9thPass DVOA27.1%9thRun DVOA-2.8%15thEPA/Play0.1165thEPA/Dropback0.1926thEPA/Rush-0.02813th
The Cowboys didn’t have their best offensive performance this past week, with turnovers looming large, but they remain inside the top 10 in most metrics. That’s a testament to how efficient this unit has been all season long. One thing to note: the run game has fallen off a bit recently. Javonte Williams is still playing well, but he hasn’t been the missed tackle machine he was earlier in the year.
Dak Prescott’s EfficiencyGradeRankQBR73.41stEPA/play0.1986thCPOE3.74thEPA+CPOE Composite0.1446thSuccess Rate49.8%8th
Dak Prescott threw two interceptions against the Lions, yes, but both were registered as drops. And 13 games in, only two quarterbacks have had more dropped passes this season, which makes Prescott’s numbers here all the more impressive. He’s having his best season yet, and just needs a defense that can yield fewer than 40 points in a game. Which, apparently, is too much to ask.
Cowboys Offensive Line EfficiencyGradeRankPressure Rate30.9%10thAdjusted Sack Rate4.8%4thPass Block Win Rate65%12thRun Block Win Rate71%17thAdjusted Line Yards4.814th
Prescott was sacked five times on Thursday, yet his adjusted sack rate only dropped from third to fourth. That highlights how good he’s been at avoiding sacks all year, especially as Dallas has battled through a myriad of injuries along the offensive line.
Cowboys Defensive EfficiencyGradeRankDefensive DVOA17.5%31stPass Defense DVOA27.8%30thRun Defense DVOA3.3%29thPressure Rate35.1%14thPass Rush Win Rate39%12thRun Stop Win Rate32%6thEPA/Play0.14029thEPA/Dropback Allowed0.19830thEPA/Rush Allowed0.03529th
Yes, the Lions game will drop the Cowboys back towards the cellar on defense, but it doesn’t erase the positive momentum they made before that. Since the trade deadline, Dallas is 20th in EPA/play allowed and 16th in success rate allowed. Neither of those are going to get Matt Eberflus another head coaching gig, but it’s good enough to win the majority of games played.
And, what do you know, the Cowboys are 3-1 since the trade deadline.
Cowboys Pass CoverageTargetsCompletionsCompletion RatePasser Rating AllowedADOT When TargetedAir Yards AllowedYards After CatchTrevon Diggs151173.3%154.916.917244DaRon Bland724968.1%107.49.7373247Kaiir Elam392461.5%112.612.222391Shavon Revel12866.7%117.772.0210Reddy Steward363186.1%97.83.254215Trikweze Bridges231565.2%115.615.117434Caelen Carson11763.6%101.713.710617Malik Hooker10990.0%152.115.19563Donovan Wilson282175.0%108.210.715473Juanyeh Thomas33100.0%143.82.3720Markquese Bell161381.3%104.26.459105DeMarvion Overshown1515100.0%121.91.218101Logan Wilson131076.9%122.35.31481Jack Sanborn121191.7%107.37.26156Marist Liufau151493.3%137.24.246128Kenneth Murray443477.3%105.04.2101226Shemar James282692.9%128.32.873181Damone Clark7571.4%84.24.71721
Trevon Diggs may be returning this week, though we’ll have to wait until he actually takes the field to believe it. Even if Diggs does return, the numbers here suggest there isn’t much hope in sight for the Cowboys pass defense. The defensive backs appear to not trust the scheme they’re running, which is never a good sign.