EL PASO, Tx., December 17, 2025: As we close out 2025, the most recent economic data shows that El Paso’s regional economy is growing but at a much lower rate than other U.S. cities. Leading El Paso’s stagnating economy is a rising unemployment rate and wages that are now stagnating. El Paso’s job market is decelerating leading to a slightly higher unemployment rate than the national and Texas average. Although job growth across the nation remains uneven, they remain higher than El Paso’s job growth in recent months.
Helping El Pasoans weather the stagnant economy is El Paso’s affordability, which is below the national average. But the affordability creates the false perception among El Pasoans that the economy is stable, when, in reality, it is stagnating to the point of falling behind the state and national averages.
Coupled with El Paso’s high property taxes and overreliance on government jobs, the stagnant economy will make it more difficult for the city to recover once the national economy begins to recover.
But the news isn’t all bad, El Paso’s economy going into 2026 isn’t all bad, nor is it all good. It is stable. The biggest challenge in 2026 will likely be continued job and wage stagnation. Couple with the city’s affordability, El Pasoans aren’t likely to see a different economy in 2026 than it did this year.
El Paso’s benefits continue to be a good cost of living index. But that comes at the cost of below average wage growth, a weak job market, especially when compared to cities like Albuquerque and Tucson, and continued job centralization around government work.
Pressure against El Paso’s economy in 2026 will be further government budget tightening among local, state and federal agencies, especially in the school districts, and consumer spending declines as prices in consumables continue to rise.
However, if consumable pricing is stabilized going into the midterm elections and spending on government agencies increases, El Pasoans will experience a stronger economy.
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