The College Football Playoff begins Friday, and SportsDay’s panel of experts (insiders Lia Assimakopulos and Shawn McFarland and columnists Tim Cowlishaw and Kevin Sherrington) share their insights and predictions ahead of the four first-round games.
PREVIEW CONTENT
John Mateer has chance to take Oklahoma to heights revered Sooners QBs of old couldn’t
The gingerbread man: How Marcel Reed’s upbringing prepared him for Playoff with Texas A&M
Sports Roundup
Tim Cowlishaw’s 16-team College Football Playoff proposal for the 2026 season and beyond
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma
Assimakopoulos: Neither team enters the playoff on a particularly strong note. Oklahoma’s offense stumbled through its last two games of the regular season, while Alabama was embarrassed by Georgia in the SEC championship, tarnishing their reputation in maybe everyone’s minds except for the College Football Playoff committee’s. I don’t expect either team to put up a particularly impressive showing in Norman, but rematches often don’t bode well for the team that won the first time. Alabama will get revenge. Alabama 24, Oklahoma 17
Cowlishaw: I don’t know if the mantra of “it’s hard to beat a good team three times” applies here, but Oklahoma has already gotten the best of Alabama in 2024 in Norman and this season in Tuscaloosa. So doing it again back at home at OU seems…doable? I know Ty Simpson actually spent a lot of the last game picking apart Brent Venables’ defense, but it wasn’t enough. And I’m not sure the news that Kalen DeBoer is staying really excites anyone associated with the Crimson Tide. Oklahoma 28, Alabama 20
McFarland: The history of postseason rematches does not favor the regular-season winner. Teams that lost in the regular season are 17-7 all-time in playoff and bowl season rematches and, in the CFP era, are undefeated in sequels. I think I’d feel better about the Sooners if quarterback John Mateer ended his regular season on a better note and posted stronger performances against ranked teams. Alabama 31, Oklahoma 24
Sherrington: Fortunately, Shawn looked up the stat about teams meeting again in the postseason. Good enough for me. Alabama will justify the committee’s confidence despite losing big to Georgia. Here’s everything else you need to know: Ty Simpson is better than John Mateer, and Alabama’s defense is at least in the same league as Oklahoma’s. Alabama 24, Oklahoma 20
No. 10 Miami (Fla.) at No. 7 Texas A&M
Assimakopoulos: Miami is a huge question mark to me. I watched them lose two games in America’s worst power conference this season, but the Hurricanes also have the talent on their roster and defensive line, especially, to compete with anyone in the nation. I think the homefield advantage at Kyle Field, the chance to play in front of a mostly-A&M crowd in the Cotton Bowl and the recent loss to Texas will be enough to motivate the Aggies. Marcel Reed and his receivers will need to win this one in the passing game, but they’ve done it before. Texas A&M 35, Miami 28
Cowlishaw: Someone has to represent the ACC, and Miami is the best team in the league even if they couldn’t show it on a weekly basis. I struggle with their loss to SMU because I don’t think the Aggies lose to SMU if they play them 10 times. Maybe that’s not the case, but A&M has had three weeks to stew about their latest loss to Varsity, and now it’s time to move on. They should do it more comfortably than anticipated.Texas A&M 33, Miami 17
McFarland: Of any first-round game, save for Oregon and James Madison, I think that this one could develop into a lopsided affair the fastest. The Aggies have a tremendous homefield advantage at Kyle Field, a more-dynamic quarterback in Marcel Reed, incredibly athletic offensive weapons on the outside and a couple of weeks to stew on their loss to Texas in the annual rivalry game. Reed performed rather well in big-time settings this year. I think he’ll do that again. Texas A&M 35, Miami 24
Sherrington: Carson Beck is the key in this game. He’s a big-time talent, but he can throw your team right out of a game, as both Georgia and Miami fans can attest. The Hurricanes also have a couple of first-round picks on their roster who could make life difficult for the Aggies. But if Marcel Reed makes enough chunk plays with his feet or by getting the ball to KC Concepcion and Mario Craver, the crowd at Kyle Field should take care of the rest. Texas A&M 31, Miami 27
No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Assimakopoulos: Tulane’s only power-conference wins this season were over a five-loss Duke team that fell to UConn (despite winning the ACC) and an inconsistent Northwestern team. As the beat writer for an ACC team and a Northwestern alum, I think I have the authority to say neither is all that impressive. Lane Kiffin or not, Ole Miss was still one of the best teams in the SEC this year for a reason. Jon Sumrall’s focus is probably more on a different SEC team right now. Ole Miss 31, Tulane 13
Cowlishaw: This is the least inspired matchup in two years of the CFP. A rematch in which Tulane lost by 35 and is forced to go to Oxford again? I know Tulane’s capable of playing better, but the Green Wave is only here because of five Mean Green turnovers a couple weeks back. And Trinidad Chambliss isn’t going to let that happen for Ole Miss. Mississippi 34, Tulane 10
McFarland: I know this isn’t the question here, but, like, how funny would it be if Ole Miss won the national championship after Lane Kiffin’s unceremonious exit? On the topic of head coaches: I’m a little skeptical that Jon Sumrall’s split duties at Tulane and Florida haven’t caused some sort of distraction. That, plus the talent gap, are a little too much for me to put trust in the Green Wave here. Ole Miss 42, Tulane 21
Sherrington: How much fun would this game have been if North Texas hadn’t coughed it up against Tulane? OK, maybe not so much fun. Won’t be for Tulane, either. They know what they’re getting into. Even with Lane Kiffin, the Rebels are still very good. One other thing: If we’re ever going to get college football right, we’ve got to move the transfer portal and signing day until after the playoffs, then maybe coaches will stick around until the season’s actually over. Ole Miss 45, Tulane 10
No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Assimakopoulos: James Madison has had an impressive season in the Sun Belt, and it earned them a spot in the College Football Playoff, but it feels like more of a participation trophy than any real shot at winning a national championship. Oregon has lost two games in the last two seasons — one to the team that won the national championship last year and one to the team that no one has beaten this year. The Ducks could make a run, and JMU should be a good warmup. Oregon 45, James Madison 14.
Cowlishaw: This feels Iike a 12-5 first-round men’s basketball tournament game where the 12 has a somewhat legitimate chance of pulling the upset. Indiana’s Curt Cignetti left a little magic behind when he left the Dukes three years ago. James Madison led Louisville 14-6 in the third quarter earlier this season. On a neutral field, I think this is a close game. But the unfortunate decision to give a huge home-field advantage to first-round teams keeps this from being interesting for four quarters. Oregon 30, James Madison 17.
McFarland: I think Oregon coach Dan Lanning is wired too tight to allow his Ducks to let their guard down against a Group of Five opponent in the playoffs. I also think that James Madison is, indeed, a good team that deserves to be here. Good enough to travel across the country and orchestrate an upset at an incredibly tough venue? I don’t think so. Oregon 45, James Madison 17.
Sherrington: Let’s face it: James Madison may have been the father of the constitution, but he was just a middling president, and his football team should be happy to be included. The only thing that interests me about this game is that it’s between Dukes and Ducks. Just glad it’s not me typing on deadline. Oregon 52, James Madison 10.