AUSTIN, Tx., December 19, 2025: According to The Texas Tribune, Texas Democrats have fielded candidates “in every state and federal race” in the 2026 elections for “the first time in modern state history.” El Paso voters, meanwhile, have a solid slate of Democrats running for most seats, except for County Commissioner 4, County Judge, Texas House 74, 75 & 79, and both congressional seats.
The Tribune credits Beto O’Rourke as one of the people behind the recruiting efforts to fill Texas ballots with Democratic Party contenders. The push to fill every ballot with Democrats is to ensure that “no Republican gets a free ride in Texas,” Texas Democratic Chair Kendall Scudder told the Tribune. Democrats have not won a statewide office since 1994. But that has not stopped some from hoping 2026 is the year that Texas turns blue.
The idea that Texas can turn blue in 2026 is bolstered by recent wins by Democrats like Zohran Mamdani and Eileen Higgins. Although the recent Democrat wins have alarmed the Republicans, there is an underlining divide among the Democrats that weakens their chances for turning Texas blue next year.
Most of the recent Democrat ballot wins are from younger progressives in the party challenging the “old guard” Democratic Party leadership who want to mold the party leadership along the lines of up-and-coming social Democrats.
On the surface, “the strategy for turning Texas blue” by maximizing “Democratic turnout” that can help “flip the state” ignores that for it to work, the Democrats need to work cohesively towards that goal. Infighting among the old guard and the younger progressives distracts from that goal.
Can the two Democrat factions agree on the common goal and work together remains an unanswered question today.
The Cannon Fodder for the “Trickle-Up” Effect the Democrats Are Banking On
The Democrats are banking on the “trickle-up” effect that O’Rourke benefited from in 2018 to come close to unseating Ted Cruz. The effect relies on bottom ballot Democrats running to bolster Democrat turnout to help up-ballot Democrats in their races.
But Democrats experience a higher rate of roll-off voters, voters who skip down-ballot races, than their Republican counterparts suggesting that the strategy of down-ballot candidates mobilizing voters is not likely to be effective.
If the Democrats succeed in mobilizing Democrats to the polls at the expense of down ballot Democrats, doesn’t the plan depend on down-ballot Democrats willing to be cannon fodder for their better-healed Democrats at the top of the ballot? Better yet, are the younger progressive Democrats willing to allow themselves to be the cannon fodder for the good of the party?
Or will they chart their own course like Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX-30) is doing in her race for Texas senator? Her Senate candidacy complicates the election calculus for the Democrat’s wish to turn Texas blue because she is ignoring the party’s need to keep her in play at the House.
Therein lies the problem for the Democrats’ plan to turn Texas blue next year. Recent Democratic candidates’ wins are mostly by young progressives, yet the turn Texas blue plan depends on them being used to bolster voter turn out among the Democrats. Would they be willing to do so is the open question today.
However, the proponents of the plan to turn Texas blue have already invested millions in the plan.
Former O’Rourke campaign team members have come together under the Texas Majority PAC and raised a little over $2 million, mostly from George Soros to turn Texas blue.
The Texas Majority PAC was founded in 2022 with the stated goal “to permanently flip Texas blue.” Their analysis suggest that it will take “1 million new Democrats to flip Texas permanently by 2032.”
In other words, the PAC argues that 1 million new voters must register to vote and cast ballots in Texas elections to turn Texas blue.
To do so, they organized “large-scale voter turn out programs” in nine Texas counties, including El Paso. The PAC credits O’Rourke and takes credit for putting Democratic candidates in the 2026 ballots.
But like the lack of cohesion among the progressive younger Democrats and the party’s leadership, the PAC faces hostile responses from traditional party chapters in several Texas counties, including the Harris County Democratic Party who refused to cede control as the PAC required.
The underlining point of contention is about who controls the voter data – the party, the PAC or some other group. Party officials are weary of the PAC and its motives. They released a report on February suggested that the PAC’s use of paid canvassers was leading to skewed canvassing results showing success where one may not have existed. According to the report, “financial incentives” rather than volunteer passion left “doubt on the contacts that are supposedly happening.” (emphasis in original)
Party officials later clarified that their report did not intend to single out the PAC, but rather that their analysis of voter canvassing used the PAC to illustrate their concerns. Nonethless, the initial report and the corrected report signals that there is no cohesion between party officials, the PAC and the up-and-coming young progressives that have led to Democrats winning in recent elections.
At the end of the day, the PAC’s plan to turn Texas blue has floundered and the ongoing disconnect within the Democratic Party, its leadership and the younger party progressives, not to mention the mistrust in the PAC by other party groups only ensures that turning Texas blue in 2026 is untenable as long as the various Democratic Party groups are unable to reconcile their difference and work cohesively together.
As for El Paso, there is some evidence that Veronica Escobar is weaker than before but the calculus for a Republican upset of Escobar is just not there in this election cycle. This is because Escobar doesn’t need to run in the primary, while the political fallout between the Republicans in their primary can lead to talking points for Escobar to use in November. Escobar can simply build up her profile between now and November with stories of her accomplishments through the news media. Adding to the weakening of the Republican candidates in El Paso is the weakening economy that the Trump administration unsuccessfully tried to spin in his latest television broadcast.
With a low approval rating of 36% in how Donald Trump has handled the economy, El Paso’s Republicans cannot depend on Trump for attracting El Paso’s voters to the Republican side in November. American voters vote on how they perceive the economy. Unless the economy drastically changes during the first quarter next year, the voters are likely to place the blame on the Republicans weakening any chances that El Paso’s voters would vote for a Republican candidate to replace Escobar, or in the County Judge’s race.
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