It’s the most wonderful time of the year. That time, of course, is College Football Playoff season, and the 12-team bracket kicked off with an Alabama comeback win over Oklahoma Friday night. The Tide fell behind 17-0 early but rallied for a 34-24 win and now will face Indiana in the Rose Bowl in the second round. 

The action continues Saturday with three more games, including a massive clash between Miami and Texas A&M in the first game of the day. Miami snuck into the playoff thanks largely to an early-season win over Notre Dame. The Aggies went 11-1 but lost their last game of the year to Texas during Rivalry Week. 

The Aggies opened at -4, but as of Saturday, they’re -2.5. 

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So what should you make of that line movement? Is it a market correction or an overreaction? Here’s a look at the point spread and line movement for all three of Saturday’s CFP games. All times Eastern.

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No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M (noon Saturday)

Open: Texas A&M -4
Last week: Texas A&M -3.5
Current: Texas A&M -2.5

This line opened at -5.5 in some places but has moved in favor of the Hurricanes (10-2). This likely is a reaction to the Aggies’ last game, a 27-17 loss at No. 16 Texas, which really put A&M’s season in a different light; the Longhorns were the only SEC team in the top half of the conference standings that the Aggies (11-1) played. A&M’s best win this season, by far, came against Notre Dame, but Miami beat the Irish, too. The point shift seems like a market correction.

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No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m. Saturday)

Open: Ole Miss -16
Last week: Ole Miss -17.5
Current: Ole Miss -17.5

This is another rematch of a game played earlier this season. On Sept. 20, the Rebels blew out the Green Wave 45-10 in Oxford in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score suggests. Ole Miss outgained Tulane 548 yards to 282 and led 45-3 that day before giving up a meaningless touchdown with 3:42 left in the game. That 35-point margin is certainly a major reason why the early money came in on Ole Miss (11-1) despite the Rebels losing coach Lane Kiffin to LSU. Obviously, bettors don’t believe Kiffin is worth 19 points on the point spread over new coach Pete Golding. The Tulane side of the spread is heavily juiced, so this number is more likely to drop to -17 than jump to -18.

No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon (7:30 p.m. Saturday)

Open: Oregon -20
Last week: Oregon -21.5
Current: Oregon -20.5

This is the kind of game in which the Ducks usually roll. Since Dan Lanning took over as coach in 2022, Oregon is 10-0 against non-major conference teams, with an average margin of victory of 36.3 points per game. However, this game may be a little different. First, James Madison is not your run-of-the-mill Group of Five team. The Dukes can run the ball (245.8 rushing yards per game, sixth in the country) and stop the run (76.2 rushing yards allowed per game, second in the nation). Also, even if this game gets out of hand, will the Ducks want to keep running their starters out there knowing they have a quarterfinal matchup against Texas Tech ahead? Oregon deserves to be a big favorite against a team that’s losing coach Bob Chesney to UCLA after the season, but a backdoor cover is a possibility.