Markets A.M., Wall Street Journal columnist Spencer Jakab<\/a> noted that similar upheaval once sent prices soaring. In the early 2000s, political turmoil and mass firings at Venezuela\u2019s state oil company slashed output and helped drive crude prices up nearly 40%. At the time, Venezuela produced more than 3% of global supply in a market with little spare capacity.<\/p>\nToday, Venezuela produces roughly 900,000 barrels per day \u2014 less than 1% of global supply \u2014 in a market already weighed down by excess output. Crude prices fell for a third straight year in 2025 as the OPEC+ unwound production cuts and U.S. shale producers maintained high volumes.<\/p>\n
Analysts say the long-term impact depends on what follows Maduro. A rapid transition to a stable, democratic government could eventually allow foreign capital to return and production to recover, putting modest downward pressure on prices over time. A more chaotic outcome \u2014 likened by some analysts to post-Gaddafi Libya \u2014 could add a small geopolitical risk premium in the near term.<\/p>\n
But even a best-case recovery would be slow. Venezuela\u2019s oil infrastructure has suffered decades of underinvestment and brain drain, and rebuilding would require billions in capital and years of work. Chevron remains the only U.S. oil company operating in the country, and only under a limited sanctions waiver.<\/p>\n
Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told Markets A.M. that high costs, unresolved legal disputes, and security concerns make a rapid revival of Venezuelan production with American participation far from assured.<\/p>\n
Underlying it all is a structural shift. The U.S. shale boom has made global oil supply far more responsive to price changes than during past crises. That flexibility has altered both market dynamics and Washington\u2019s calculus.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis isn\u2019t your father\u2019s or grandfather\u2019s oil market,\u201d Jakab wrote \u2014 and Venezuela\u2019s turmoil, dramatic as it is, underscores just how much the industry has changed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"President Donald Trump\u2019s authorization of U.S. military action to capture Venezuelan leader Nicol\u00e1s Maduro has added a new…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":111701,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[451,116,118,866,117,6786,49551,92,23159,49552],"class_list":["post-111700","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-fort-worth","tag-energy","tag-fort-worth","tag-fort-worth-headlines","tag-fort-worth-inc-staff","tag-fort-worth-news","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-oil-market","tag-top-story","tag-venezuela","tag-wti-crude"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111700","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=111700"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111700\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/111701"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111700"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=111700"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=111700"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}