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<\/p>\nANALYSIS \u2014 Republicans aligned with the party establishment are excited that Texas Sen. John Cornyn has closed the gap with primary challenger Ken Paxton in his high-profile reelection race.<\/p>\n
But the four-term incumbent is still extremely vulnerable. The GOP primary, now a three-way race between Cornyn, Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt, offers an example of how data can be presented to paint whatever picture you want to see. And using some of the senator\u2019s past and present colleagues as a guide, Cornyn remains in a politically precarious situation.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Earlier this spring, Senate Leadership Fund, the leading Senate GOP outside group, pulled the fire alarm in the race with a survey showing Cornyn trailing Paxton, the state attorney general, by 16 points, 56 percent to 40 percent. It wasn\u2019t a total surprise to people paying attention, but seeing concrete numbers publicly was jarring for many.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Cornyn and allies have spent nearly $30 million this year seeking to alter the race\u2019s trajectory, with some success. The most recent SLF poll, conducted Sept. 20-22, showed both men running even. Another survey, conducted Sept. 19-21 by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University, had Cornyn at 44 percent and Paxton at 43 percent in the two-way ballot.\u00a0<\/p>\n
But the narrowing of the race is the glass-half-full scenario for Cornyn and his allies. The glass-half-empty case is that despite being in office for more than two decades and benefiting from millions of dollars in positive TV ads, the senator\u2019s support among GOP primary voters has improved only at a glacial pace.<\/p>\n
While Paxton\u2019s initial lead has dissipated, Cornyn\u2019s vote share has not improved dramatically, even according to data from allies. The senator was at 40 percent in the survey that found him trailing by 16 points and 39 percent in the poll that showed him running even. More broadly, in three May polls against Paxton before the bulk of the spending, Cornyn averaged 36 percent in support. In five polls from late August to the end of September, he averaged 38 percent, rounding up.<\/p>\n
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Historical context<\/p>\n
A handful of senators have faced difficult primary challenges over the past decade or so, and most of those results could be concerning for Cornyn, even if they survived.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Republican Sen. Richard G. Lugar lost to Richard Mourdock in Indiana in 2012. Public polling in the race was limited, but Lugar topped 50 percent in just one internal survey out of at least nine publicly released polls. He ended up with 40 percent in the primary. The senator\u2019s polling average was 43 percent over the course of the race, his support among primary voters wasn\u2019t fundamentally different 10 months out from the election compared with right before, and he didn\u2019t outperform the final pre-election polls.<\/p>\n
There were two big Republican Senate primaries in 2014. Mitch McConnell fended off<\/a> a high-profile challenge from Matt Bevin in Kentucky with 60 percent of the vote. But, unlike Cornyn and Lugar, McConnell consistently polled well<\/a> ahead of Bevin by an average of 30 points (he won by 25 points) and was above 50 percent (56 percent, on average) in a dozen polls in the 10 months before the election. Cornyn\u2019s numbers aren\u2019t nearly that strong this cycle, at least not yet.<\/p>\n Thad Cochran\u2019s 2014 race in Mississippi was a bit closer. The senator finished behind state Sen. Chris McDaniel 49.5 percent to 49 percent in the primary before winning the runoff<\/a> 51 percent to 49 percent with rare help from Black voters.<\/p>\n Cochran\u2019s support didn\u2019t improve over the course of the race, which wasn\u2019t surprising for a longtime incumbent. Early polling showed him between 44 percent and 54 percent, compared with between 39 percent and 45 percent in the days leading up to the election. Cochran lost support over the course of the race and only narrowly outperformed pre-election polls<\/a>.<\/p>\n Looking further back, to 2010, GOP incumbent Lisa Murkowski lost her primary in Alaska to Joe Miller, 51 percent to 49 percent, but there\u2019s not enough public polling data to draw comparisons with that race. (She went on to win the general election as a write-in candidate, with 39 percent.) In Pennsylvania, incumbent Arlen Specter lost the Democratic primary to Rep. Joe Sestak. But Specter had recently switched parties; while he was a longtime senator, he was not a longtime Democrat, so the race doesn\u2019t feel as relevant to Cornyn\u2019s situation. And in Utah, Mike Lee knocked off Sen. Robert F. Bennett, but Bennett didn\u2019t garner enough support at the party convention and didn\u2019t even make the primary ballot. So that also isn\u2019t a great comparison.\u00a0<\/p>\n Somewhat surprisingly, Cornyn might be most encouraged by the past primary performance of a Democratic colleague.<\/p>\n Early in the 2020 Massachusetts Senate primary, Sen. Edward J. Markey was polling between 28 percent and 44 percent and trailed Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III by anywhere from a little (between 1 and 6 points) to a lot (14 and 17 points).<\/p>\n But about a month before the election, Markey\u2019s standing started to improve. His polling support ticked up to between 44 percent and 56 percent, and he posted leads of between 2 and 15 points. He ultimately defeated Kennedy by 11 points.\u00a0<\/p>\n It looks like Markey will have another tough primary this cycle, against Rep. Seth Moulton. But his 2020 race appears like an aberration, and incumbents generally struggle to improve their standing.<\/p>\n Back to reality<\/p>\n The good news for Cornyn is that the March 3 primary is still more than four months away. The bad news is that allies have already spent tens of millions of dollars trying to boost his standing, with limited success.\u00a0<\/p>\n While Paxton\u2019s baggage \u2013 a public divorce, past impeachment over bribery allegations, home mortgage questions and other issues \u2013 have received plenty of attention, a majority of the pro-Cornyn TV ad spending has been on positive spots meant to bolster his support among Republicans.\u00a0<\/p>\n That investment seems to have successfully, and potentially necessarily, changed the narrative of the race. Earlier this year, there was discussion about Cornyn dropping out entirely, and it seemed far-fetched that President Donald Trump would back a candidate trailing by double digits. But Cornyn now has to hope future ad spending is more effective.<\/p>\n Hunt\u2019s entrance into the primary on Oct. 6<\/a> changed the dynamic a bit. Cornyn\u2019s allies have been extremely critical of the Houston-area congressman because they want to avoid an extended and expensive primary fight. Hunt\u2019s candidacy increases the chances that no one receives more than 50 percent, leaving the top two candidates to move on to a May 26 runoff.<\/p>\n A three-way race lowers the threshold to make the runoff, but Cornyn\u2019s support has been static in those ballot tests as well. In polls that include Hunt as an option, the incumbent has averaged 31 percent, including 33 percent in the initial SLF poll in May and 32 percent in the September poll.\u00a0<\/p>\n Even if Cornyn secures a spot in the runoff, he\u2019s back to the fundamental challenge of needing to boost his standing to win. In the 2014 Mississippi race, Cochran only improved his standing by 2 points from the primary to the runoff, but it was enough to win. And back in 2012, Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst finished ahead of Ted Cruz in the first round of the GOP Senate primary with 45 percent. He lost the runoff to Cruz, taking 43 percent.\u00a0<\/p>\n That comparison isn\u2019t perfect because Dewhurst was not an incumbent senator. But Dewhurst had been elected statewide four times and had more of an established profile heading into the race. While some Cornyn allies dismiss those comparisons, others admit that a runoff electorate may not favor the establishment-linked senator. Turnout often drops significantly \u2014 in the 2022 GOP primary for state attorney general, fewer than half as many voters showed up for the runoff as did in March \u2014 and Cornyn has struggled among the most partisan and engaged Texas GOP voters.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Trump remains a wild card. His support is often the difference maker in Republican primaries, but he hasn\u2019t made a decision in this race. \u201cI\u2019d rather not comment on it right now,\u201d he said at the end of August<\/a>. \u201cI like both guys. They\u2019re both friends of mine, and they\u2019re both good and very different.\u201d<\/p>\n In their efforts to draw Trump into the race, Cornyn\u2019s allies appear to be leveraging his desire to hold on to the House next year by warning that nominating Paxton could endanger GOP House candidates. The White House is clearly concerned about maintaining control of the House to implement Trump\u2019s agenda and avoid investigations, which is why it directed Republicans in Texas and elsewhere to significantly redraw congressional maps to create more GOP-leaning seats.\u00a0<\/p>\n