It\u2019s the latest example of Democrats\u2019 significantly outperforming Republicans compared with the 2024 election result in elections across the country in the last year-plus. A handful of those elections have flipped state legislative districts, like this one, in addition to big Democratic wins in the 2025 governor\u2019s races in New Jersey and Virginia.<\/p>\n
In Texas, the result raises questions about whether Republicans\u2019 new congressional map, which was designed to help the party net five additional House seats, can actually deliver victories in seats that weren\u2019t as red in 2024 as the one Rehmet flipped. He can now claim to have been the first Democrat to flip his deep-red seat since 1991, upsetting a conservative political activist Leigh Wambsganss, who outspent him by millions of dollars. <\/p>\n
![\"Leigh](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/260202-Leigh-Wambsganss-ew-217p-2263d7.jpg\")
Leigh Wambsganss speaks to NBC Dallas-Fort Worth.NBC Dallas Fort Worth<\/p>\n
But if you ask Rehmet, he won\u2019t frame it in such partisan terms.<\/p>\n
\u201cMaybe my success is I didn\u2019t see things that way,\u201d Rehmet told NBC News. \u201cI saw it as an opportunity to unify Texans. … We look out for our neighbors, and that means our neighbors and our schools and our communities that are not being able to pay their medication or choosing between medication, food or rent. These are things that are a five-alarm fire. We have to address these issues, and voters are looking for something different. I\u2019m not focused on partisanship.\u201d<\/p>\n
On the Republican side, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who was a vocal supporter of Wambsganss\u2019, called it a \u201clow-turnout\u201d special election that should be a \u201cwake-up call for Republicans.\u201d <\/p>\n
But election analysis may show that Republicans didn\u2019t have a problem only with turnout, but also with retainment. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe No. 1 takeaway is Republicans did not lose because of low turnout, not primarily. They lost it because a large number of independents and some Republicans voted for the Democratic candidate,\u201d Republican data analyst Ross Hunt of Hunt Research told NBC News. \u201cThis election is definitely a warning bell for the Republicans this fall.\u201d<\/p>\n
According to Hunt\u2019s data analysis of the special-election electorate in the 9th Senate District, only 35% of voters in the election were Democratic base voters, compared with 51% who were Republican base voters.<\/p>\n
For Rehmet to reach his 57% vote share, many Republicans and right-leaning independents defected, Hunt said.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou don\u2019t have to be a genius in math to figure out what happened. We have a lot of independents, and some Republicans, voting for the Democrat,\u201d Hunt said.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not yet clear what exact dynamics from this race could bleed over into the midterms, which will have significantly higher turnout. It\u2019s also possible that some of the specifics of Wambsganss\u2019 candidacy, including her local school board activism, triggered an unusual degree of backlash that wouldn\u2019t translate to other races.<\/p>\n
But Saturday\u2019s results could be another sign, in addition to the 2025 election results<\/a>, of Hispanic and suburban voters\u2019 turning sharply against the GOP after they helped contribute to the party\u2019s strong 2024 election. <\/p>\n Democrats\u2019 margin of victory in the Texas special election amounted to a 32-point swing left compared with the 2024 presidential results and a 28-point swing from the 2020 result, according to The Downballot<\/a>.<\/p>\n A midterm swing of even a small fraction of that size would be a massive boon for Democrats, nationally and in Texas, where state Republicans put themselves on the front lines of the GOP drive to keep the House majority in 2026. <\/p>\n Republican lawmakers carved up the state\u2019s congressional map in hope of netting their party up to five more seats in Congress. When Republicans redrew the maps, they made a bet<\/a> that they could hold onto the gains Trump and the party have been making among Hispanic voters. But if that support is crumbling, they might not be able to squeeze as much political gain out of the gerrymandered map. <\/p>\n Netting five seats requires toppling Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez, two South Texas Democrats in overwhelmingly Hispanic districts who have won tough races before. And Republicans also have to win a new, majority-Hispanic district that runs outside Austin to San Antonio. Trump won all three districts in 2024 by about 10 points \u2014 less than his 2024 margin in Texas\u2019 9th Senate District. <\/p>\n Some local activists cautioned against overinterpreting Wambsganss\u2019 loss as a national political signal, arguing instead that it reflected distinctly local fallout from her role in contentious school board fights that reshaped public education politics in North Texas.<\/p>\n In 2020, Wambsganss co-founded Southlake Families PAC<\/a> to back school board candidates who pledged to root out critical race theory, which centers on the idea that racism is systemic in the nation\u2019s institutions, and what they described as \u201cwoke\u201d diversity initiatives in local schools. She later expanded that work as director of Patriot Mobile Action, the political arm of a right-wing Christian cellphone company<\/a>, which poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into school board races across the region, helping elect slates of anti-DEI Republicans.<\/p>\n