{"id":160110,"date":"2026-02-11T15:20:09","date_gmt":"2026-02-11T15:20:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/160110\/"},"modified":"2026-02-11T15:20:09","modified_gmt":"2026-02-11T15:20:09","slug":"after-a-flat-2025-texas-will-add-some-jobs-this-year-dallas-fed-projects","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/160110\/","title":{"rendered":"After a flat 2025, Texas will add some jobs this year, Dallas Fed projects"},"content":{"rendered":"

After a virtually flat 2025<\/a>, Texas will again add jobs in 2026, according to a new employment forecast by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas<\/a>, although at a pace still notably below the state\u2019s historical growth rate. <\/p>\n

This year, the bank\u2019s forecast projected, Texas employment will grow by 1.1%, implying the addition of around 155,000 new jobs. Historically the state \u2014 which has ranked among the country\u2019s fastest growing for years \u2014 has added jobs at an annual rate of around 2%. <\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve run our models. We\u2019re going with the 1.1% growth, so that is a significant increase from zero, certainly,\u201d said Pia Orrenius, a senior economist at the Dallas Fed, during a presentation at the bank on Friday. <\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not back to trend growth,\u201d she continued. \u201cI don\u2019t think that trend growth is really achievable given the labor supply constraints that we\u2019re experiencing right now. So I think 1% is a good goal, and that\u2019s still a pretty good outlook for this year.\u201d <\/p>\n

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The Texas jobs forecast, Orrenius added, was also in line with national projections. <\/p>\n

In 2025, the U.S. labor market settled into what economists characterize as a \u201clow hiring, low firing\u201d environment, with relatively few layoffs, even as the country experienced its weakest year of employment growth since 2020. This year, forecasters are predicting modest jobs growth. <\/p>\n

Nationally \u2014 and especially in Texas \u2014 the slower than normal employment growth is largely attributable to the Trump administration\u2019s restrictive immigration policies and aggressive enforcement operations, economists say. That has reduced the size of the labor market, and made it harder for firms to retain workers. <\/p>\n

\u2018Chilling effect\u2019<\/p>\n

In a report published by the Dallas Fed in October, researchers at the bank determined that recent immigration policy changes were negatively impacting one in five Texas businesses<\/a>. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe stepped-up visibility and intensity of enforcement has produced a chilling effect,\u201d the authors wrote. \u201cAs fear spreads in immigrant communities, foreign-born individuals are more likely to miss work or school and less likely to venture out to shops and restaurants.\u201d<\/p>\n

North Texas in particular is already seeing a dramatic impact from recent changes to the H-1B visa program, Orrenius pointed out in an interview with The Dallas Morning News, which provides work permits for highly skilled immigrants, and is frequently utilized by tech firms and research organizations. <\/p>\n

Last fall, President Donald Trump signed a proclamation<\/a> imposing a new $100,000 fee on new visas under the program, igniting a local panic<\/a> among D-FW immigrant communities. In late January, Gov. Greg Abbott issued another directive freezing H-1B petitions<\/a> at state universities and public agencies until the spring of 2027, claiming that some Texas employers had failed to make \u201cgood-faith efforts\u201d to hire Texans before turning to foreign workers. <\/p>\n

Soon after, in Frisco, a booming D-FW city with a large South Asian population, the unfolding H-1B changes also spurred a broader, contentious debate about diversity, population growth and patriotism, The News reported<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Some area residents \u2014 including some wearing \u201cAmerica First\u201d hats \u2014 blamed the visa program for changing the region\u2019s character, crowding schools and harming job prospects for Americans. Before the meeting, social media posts had urged residents to resist an \u201cIndian takeover.\u201d <\/p>\n

\u201cI understand there\u2019s a lot of people who are upset the American Dream has been stolen,\u201d Burt Thakur, Frisco\u2019s first Indian American council member, said during the meeting. \u201cEverybody in this room is full of love \u2026 we may approach it in a different way, but we\u2019re [all] Americans.\u201d <\/p>\n

\"Frisco<\/p>\n

Frisco City Council men and women listen to people who spoke out about the growing number of immigrants on H1B visas in Frisco during a Council meeting at the George A. Purefoy Municipal Center in Frisco, February 3, 2026. Those of Indian decent spoke as well. The activists have called the surge of South Asians immigrants on H1B visas an “Indian takeover” of the city. <\/p>\n

Tom Fox \/ Staff Photographer<\/p>\n

The H-1B uncertainty, Orrenius said, is already hitting some North Texas single family home builders, who have cited drops in demand, while the broader ongoing immigration reduction continues to take a larger toll on both the North Texas and Texas economies. <\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s the disruption to kind of the growth model that we have,\u201d she said. \u201cBecause even in a normal year, immigration and migration into the state is more than 50% of our growth.\u201d <\/p>\n

The decline in new arrivals has been dramatic: In 2024, according to Census data cited by the bank, Texas added 355,000 new residents from abroad and 86,000 from other states. <\/p>\n

Last year, the state received 167,000 new international arrivals, and 67,000 domestic arrivals. This year, the bank projects, the numbers will dip to 37,000 and 53,000. <\/p>\n

The slowing population growth has led to lower residential construction throughout Texas \u2014 although the state has actually been adding a significant number of construction jobs, largely because of the explosive growth in new data centers. Last year, construction contracts for Texas data centers added up to nearly $11 billion, according to Dallas Fed data, more than double the figure from just a year earlier. <\/p>\n

Related<\/p>\n

\"Nehemiah<\/p>\n

For several years, Texas has ranked second nationally in the metric, behind only Virginia, with Dallas-Fort Worth accounting for about half the state\u2019s estimated 388 facilities. The industry is projected to continue growing rapidly in Texas, even as it\u2019s also sparked criticism for its heavy energy<\/a> and water consumption and impact on nearby residents\u2019 quality of life. <\/p>\n

\u201cI think about [data centers] almost like the highways and the airports that are the fundamental infrastructure of the future,\u201d Mike Rosa, senior vice president of economic development at the Dallas Regional Chamber, told The News last year<\/a>. <\/p>\n

More broadly, the ongoing AI boom will also continue to boost Texas companies\u2019 productivity, the Dallas Fed projected, while the state \u2014 and particularly North Texas \u2014 will also see a notable economic lift from the upcoming World Cup. <\/p>\n

On the other hand, after the recent expiration<\/a> of Covid-era healthcare subsidies, the state\u2019s uninsured rate \u2014 already the highest in the U.S. \u2014 is expected to rise, representing an upcoming economic drag for the state. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe real underlying strengths, the things that really make the economy grow in the long run, [are] things like human capital, whether it\u2019s education or health,\u201d Orrenius said last week. \u201cSo those are really important factors for us to watch as well.\u201d <\/p>\n

The bank\u2019s 2026 employment growth projection comes after Texas last year added less than 11,000 net jobs, according to Dallas Fed data, but still managed a GDP increase, likely because of companies\u2019 increasing integration of AI<\/a>. It was the first time in more than 20 years that the state\u2019s economic output expanded even as it mostly failed to add jobs. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"After a virtually flat 2025, Texas will again add jobs in 2026, according to a new employment forecast…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":160111,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[910,11837,918,27,29,28],"class_list":["post-160110","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-texas","tag-business","tag-dallas-fed","tag-economy","tag-texas","tag-texas-headlines","tag-texas-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160110","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=160110"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160110\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/160111"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=160110"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=160110"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=160110"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}