Top DFS Picks and Strategies for Houston<\/p>\n
DFS plays for this weekend’s UFC Houston card are live. Included in this preview are profiles for each fighter and breakdowns of my DFS strategy for every bout on the card. Welcome to Drake’s Takes.<\/p>\n
Top UFC Houston Picks & Career Results:<\/p>\n
2026 Overall Picks: 28-10-0\u00a0 Sean Strickland (29-7-0) v. Anthony Hernandez (15-2-0)<\/p>\n Sean Strickland<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 6’1″ \u2013 Reach: 76″ \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 29-7 (11 KO\/TKO, 4 submissions)Elite jab, pressure, and defensive shell with high striking volumeCan struggle when forced into heavy grappling and prolonged scrambles<\/p>\n Anthony Hernandez<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 6’0″ \u2013 Reach: 75″ \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 15-2 (3 KO\/TKO, 9 submissions)Relentless pace grappler with cardio, pressure, and chain wrestlingInjury concern exists, but when healthy, he overwhelms opponents with volume and control<\/p>\n DFS Perspective: The injury is the only real concern, but if Hernandez is truly healthy, this is a very strong stylistic spot for him. His relentless grappling, pace, and ability to force scrambles directly challenge Strickland’s more boxing-heavy approach. Over three rounds, Hernandez’s control time, takedowns, and pressure create a much higher DFS ceiling than Strickland’s volume-based striking. If he tests the injury well and pushes his usual pace, Hernandez is a premium DFS play and one of the most attractive options on the Houston card.<\/p>\n UFC Houston Pick: Hernandez<\/p>\n Interested in backing this or other picks seen here on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets<\/a> by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.\u00a0<\/p>\n Geoff Neal (16-7-0) v. Uros Medic (12-3-0)<\/p>\n Geoff Neal<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 5’11” \u2013 Reach: 75″ \u2013 Stance: SouthpawRecord: 16-7 (10 KO\/TKO, 2 submissions)Powerful boxer with clean counters and knockout abilityHas shown limited progression recently and can be hittable in early exchanges<\/p>\n Uros Medic<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 6’1″ \u2013 Reach: 71″ \u2013 Stance: SouthpawRecord: 12-3 (10 KO\/TKO, 2 submissions)Explosive striker with improving composure and finishing instinctsAggressive early starter who looks to overwhelm opponents quickly<\/p>\n DFS Perspective: This is a must-target fight for DFS given the strong likelihood of an early finish. Neal still carries power, but his recent stagnation and defensive openings make him vulnerable to fast starters. Medi\u0107’s aggression, improvement, and willingness to push the pace early give him a clear path to an early knockout. He profiles as a high-ceiling tournament play with strong first-round finish equity and slate-breaking upside if this ends quickly.<\/p>\n UFC Houston Pick: Medic<\/p>\n Like this underdog pick? Try it out with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer<\/a> to see what openings you can create with this salary relief.<\/p>\n Dan Ige (19-10-0) v. Melquizael Costa (25-7-0)<\/p>\n Dan Ige<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 5’7″ \u2013 Reach: 71″ \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 19-10 (7 KO\/TKO, 5 submissions)Extremely durable and always competitive against high-level opponentsTough to finish but can be outworked by higher-volume fighters<\/p>\n Melquizael Costa<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 5’10” \u2013 Reach: 71″ \u2013 Stance: SouthpawRecord: 25-7 (8 KO\/TKO, 8 submissions)Riding strong momentum with improving confidence and activityAggressive, well-rounded offense with the ability to mix striking and grappling<\/p>\n DFS Perspective: Ige is always live due to his durability and experience, but Costa’s current run and higher activity level give him the DFS edge. Costa’s willingness to push pace and mix in offense across all phases should allow him to outwork Ige over three rounds. While Ige’s toughness limits pure finishing upside, Costa still offers solid volume-based scoring with potential late-finish equity, making him the preferred DFS play.<\/p>\n UFC Houston Pick: Costa<\/p>\n Serghei Spivac (17-6-0) v. Ante Delija (26-7-0)<\/p>\n Serghei Spivac<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 6’3″ \u2013 Reach: 78″ \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 17-6 (7 KO\/TKO, 8 submissions)Grappling-heavy heavyweight with strong takedowns and top controlStriking defense is limited and he struggles when forced to fight at range<\/p>\n Ante Delija<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 6’3″ \u2013 Reach: 78″ \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 26-7 (12 KO\/TKO, 7 submissions)Powerful striker with good size and finishing abilityMost dangerous when fights stay standing and at striking range<\/p>\n DFS Perspective: This fight largely hinges on whether Spivac can secure early control. If he establishes takedowns and top position, he has a clear path to strong DFS scoring through control time and potential submission threats. However, if he is unable to control the grappling exchanges, Delija’s size, power, and striking volume could allow him to piece Spivac up on the feet. From a DFS standpoint, this is a volatile heavyweight matchup where the winner is very likely to score well, making it a strong tournament target on both sides.<\/p>\n UFC Houston Pick: Delija<\/p>\n Jacobe Smith (11-0-0) v. Josiah Harrell (11-0-0)<\/p>\n Jacobe Smith<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 5’10” \u2013 Reach: 72″ \u2013 Stance: SouthpawRecord: 11-0 (8 KO\/TKO, 1 submission)Undefeated prospect with strong finishing instincts and physicalityDangerous once he settles into rhythm and begins dictating pace<\/p>\n Josiah Harrell<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 5’7″ \u2013 Reach: 68″ \u2013 Stance: SouthpawRecord: 11-0 (6 KO\/TKO, 4 submissions)Well-rounded undefeated fighter with solid composureTaking the fight on short notice, which raises cardio and preparation concerns<\/p>\n DFS Perspective: This fight may look competitive early, especially given both fighters’ undefeated records, but the short-notice factor heavily favors Smith as the fight progresses. Harrell’s durability and skill set could keep things close in the opening exchanges, but Smith’s preparation, power, and ability to dictate pace should take over. Smith is the preferred DFS play with strong finishing upside and a realistic path to handing Harrell his first loss, particularly if the fight extends beyond the early rounds.<\/p>\n UFC Houston Pick: Smith<\/p>\n Zachary Reese (10-2-0) v. Michel Pereira (31-14-0)<\/p>\n Zachary Reese<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 6’4″ \u2013 Reach: 77″ \u2013 Stance: SwitchRecord: 10-2 (5 KO\/TKO, 3 submission)Explosive finisher with size, power, and early aggressionDefensive durability and composure remain question marks against experienced opponents<\/p>\n Michel Pereira<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 6’1″ \u2013 Reach: 73″ \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 31-14 (11 KO\/TKO, 8 submissions)Extremely experienced and dangerous finisher with creativity across all phasesThree-fight losing streak is a concern, but skill set and finishing ability remain high<\/p>\n DFS Perspective: Pereira’s losing streak makes him risky, but his experience gap and finishing upside make him very live in this matchup. Reese is dangerous early and carries real power, yet he can be hittable and chaotic, which plays into Pereira’s opportunistic style. If Pereira shows up at full potential, he has clear paths to a finish via striking or submission. He profiles as a high-variance tournament play with strong upside, while Reese remains a volatile boom-or-bust option.<\/p>\n UFC Houston Pick: Pereira<\/p>\n Chidi Njokuani (25-11-0) v. Carlos Leal (22-7-0)<\/p>\n Chidi Njokuani<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 6’3″ \u2013 Reach: 80″ \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 25-11 (15 KO\/TKO, 1 submission)Long, technical striker with real power at rangeDurability and consistency issues have shown in prolonged, high-paced fights<\/p>\n Carlos Leal<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 5’11” \u2013 Reach: 74″ \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 22-7 (11 KO\/TKO, 2 submissions)Tough, high-volume fighter who thrives in gritty exchangesWilling to absorb damage to maintain pressure and output<\/p>\n DFS Perspective: Both fighters are likely to have their moments, especially early with Njokuani’s length and striking danger. However, Leal’s toughness, pace, and willingness to push volume over three rounds give him the clearer DFS path. If he can close distance and force extended exchanges, he should be able to outwork Njokuani as the fight progresses. Leal profiles as the preferred DFS play with strong volume-based scoring and potential late-fight momentum.<\/p>\n UFC Houston Pick: Leal\u00a0<\/p>\n Ode Osbourne (13-9-0) v. Alibi Idiris (10-1-0)<\/p>\n Ode Osbourne<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 5’7″ \u2013 Reach: 73″ \u2013 Stance: SouthpawRecord: 13-9 (5 KO\/TKO, 5 submissions)Lengthy, athletic striker who prefers range and measured exchangesCan be hesitant and low-output in slower-paced fights<\/p>\n Alibi Idiris<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 5’6″ \u2013 Reach: 68″ \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 10-1 (4 KO\/TKO, 1 submissions)Pressure-oriented fighter but still relatively untested at higher levelsMay struggle to force consistent engagements against longer, range-based opponents<\/p>\n DFS Perspective: This projects as a potential slow, low-output matchup and is shaping up as more of a fade spot for DFS. Both fighters could have moments, but the pacing risk is high if Osbourne stays at range and Idiris fails to consistently close distance. Without sustained grappling or high-volume striking, the scoring ceiling on both sides looks limited. Unless salary or ownership creates a unique leverage angle, this fight is best treated as a fade in most DFS builds.<\/p>\n UFC Houston Pick: Idiris<\/p>\n Alden Coria (11-3-0) v. Luis Gurule (10-2-0)<\/p>\n Alden Coria<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 5’8″ \u2013 Reach: 67″ \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 11-3 (5 KO\/TKO, 4 submissions)Coming off an upset debut win with strong composure and confidenceWell-rounded skill set that allows him to control fights across multiple phases<\/p>\n Luis Gurule<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 5’5″ \u2013 Reach: 64″ \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 10-2 (5 KO\/TKO, 1 submission)Scrappy and willing to engage, but limited experience at higher levelsCan be outmatched technically against more complete opponents<\/p>\n DFS Perspective: Coria is in a strong spot following his upset debut win and should have clear advantages in composure, experience, and overall skill set. Gurule may have moments early, but this looks like a matchup where Coria can dictate pace, control exchanges, and separate as the fight goes on. He profiles as a solid DFS play with a strong win probability and potential for either a clear decision or late finish if the skill gap shows.<\/p>\n UFC Houston Pick: Coria<\/p>\n Nora Cornolle (9-3-0) v. Joselyne Edwards (16-6-0)<\/p>\n Nora Cornolle<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 5’7″ \u2013 Reach: 67″ \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 9-3 (6 KO\/TKO, 2 submission)Physical striker with real power and finishing intent earlyCan slow down if unable to secure an early finish<\/p>\n Joselyne Edwards<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 5’8″ \u2013 Reach: 70″ \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 16-6 (7 KO\/TKO, 4 submissions)Noticeable defensive improvements and more composed striking approachIncreasingly well-rounded with the ability to win competitive rounds<\/p>\n DFS Perspective: The Edwards of a couple years ago may have been at real risk of getting knocked out here, but her defensive growth and composure make this a much more manageable matchup now. She has shown better durability, smarter shot selection, and flashes of developing power, which should allow her to edge exchanges over time. However, this projects as a lower-scoring fight unless there is an early finish. Edwards is the preferred DFS side, but more as a moderate floor, low-ceiling play rather than a slate-breaking option.<\/p>\n UFC Houston Pick: Edwards<\/p>\n Ramiz Brahimaj (13-5-0) v. Punahele Soriano (12-4-0)<\/p>\n Ramiz Brahimaj<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 5’10” \u2013 Reach: 72″ \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 13-5 (1 KO\/TKO, 12 submissions)Dangerous submission specialist with strong grappling instinctsAlways a live threat if the fight hits the mat or enters scrambles<\/p>\n Punahele Soriano<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 5’11” \u2013 Reach: 72″ \u2013 Stance: SouthpawRecord: 12-4 (7 KO\/TKO, 2 submission)Powerful striker with explosive early offenseCan struggle if fights become grappling-heavy or extend into deeper rounds<\/p>\n DFS Perspective: This is a difficult fight to call and highly dependent on where it takes place. Brahimaj is always a considerable submission threat and could end the fight quickly if he secures top position or catches a scramble. Soriano, meanwhile, has the power and explosiveness to do serious damage on the feet early. From a DFS standpoint, this is a volatile matchup with real finish equity on both sides, making it a strong tournament target rather than a safe play. The winner is very likely to score well, especially if a finish materializes.<\/p>\n UFC Houston Pick: Soriano<\/p>\n Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (9-2-0) v. Phil Rowe (11-6-0)<\/p>\n Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 5’11” \u2013 Reach: 74″ \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 9-2 (3 KO\/TKO, 5 submissions)Well-rounded fighter with solid fundamentals across all phasesComposed approach that allows him to dictate pace and control exchanges<\/p>\n Phil Rowe<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 6’3″ \u2013 Reach: 80″ \u2013 Stance: SwitchRecord: 11-6 (7 KO\/TKO, 4 submission)Long striker with knockout power and reach advantageRelies heavily on striking and can be outmatched in well-rounded matchups<\/p>\n DFS Perspective: Rowe’s length and power always give him a puncher’s chance, but this matchup looks unfavorable if he cannot keep the fight purely on the feet. Lebosnoyani’s more complete skill set and ability to mix phases should allow him to neutralize Rowe’s striking advantage over time. If Rowe cannot impose his range consistently, he may struggle to get this done. Lebosnoyani profiles as the preferred DFS side with a solid path to a decision win or late finish through control and composure.<\/p>\n UFC Houston Pick: Lebosnoyani<\/p>\n Yadier del Valle (10-0-0) v. Jordan Leavitt (12-3-0)<\/p>\n Yadier Del Valle<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 5’9″ \u2013 Reach: 69″ \u2013 Stance: SouthpawRecord: 10-0 (2 KO\/TKO, 4 submissions)Aggressive finisher with solid striking pressure and physicalityDangerous when dictating pace and forcing opponents into exchanges<\/p>\n Jordan Leavitt<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 5’9″ \u2013 Reach: 71″ \u2013 Stance: SouthpawRecord: 12-3 (2 KO\/TKO, 7 submissions)Grappling-focused fighter with strong takedown and submission gameLimited striking output and relies heavily on control-based victories<\/p>\n DFS Perspective: This matchup likely comes down to whether Leavitt can impose his grappling or if del Valle keeps the fight standing. Leavitt’s submission threat is always real and gives him a clear path if he secures early takedowns. However, if del Valle is able to defend entries and force striking exchanges, his pressure and finishing upside become much more dangerous. From a DFS standpoint, this is a stylistic fight with finish equity on both sides, making it a solid tournament target rather than a safe, high-floor play.<\/p>\n UFC Houston Pick: del Valle<\/p>\n Carli Judice (5-2-0) v. Juliana Miller (4-3-0)<\/p>\n Carli Judice<\/a><\/p>\n Height: 5’7″ \u2013 Reach: 68″ \u2013 Stance: SouthpawRecord: 5-2 (5 KO\/TKO)Technical striker with good composure and range managementPrefers to keep fights standing and control the pace<\/p>\n
2025 Overall Picks:\u00a0345-152-2\u00a0
DFS Lock of the Week:\u00a0Alden Coria<\/a>
Fanduel Captain: Hernandez\/Coria<\/p>\n