In the clearest sign yet of the changing political winds, this month former Bexar GOP chair Kyle Sinclair said he was ending his campaign<\/a> to support Trump\u2019s newly endorsed candidate, former MLB player Mark Teixeira<\/a>, in Texas\u2019 21st Congressional District.<\/p>\n It\u2019s a district Republicans should have no problem holding with any of 12 candidates<\/a> seeking their party\u2019s nomination, but they\u2019re now taking no chances after a Fort Worth state Senate seat swung 31 points<\/a> to support Democrat Taylor Rehmet in a Jan. 30 special election.<\/p>\n In the fallout after that upset, Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson and other GOP leaders have all rallied around Teixeira, who put $2.5 million of his own money<\/a> into the race and who they hope will head off growing enthusiasm among Democrats.<\/p>\n \u201cNot only with what happened in North Texas, but also just in the landscape across America with midterm elections \u2026 [the President shouldn\u2019t have to] worry about TX21,\u201d said Sinclair, who spoke with both the White House\u2019s political team and congressional Republicans\u2019 campaign arm before making his decision.<\/p>\n Midterms do typically yield losses for the party that just took control of the White House \u2014 something Texas GOP leaders already sought to mitigate on their home turf with redrawn congressional districts this year.<\/p>\n But backlash to the President\u2019s immigration enforcement tactics, big national money flowing into the Lone Star State<\/a>, plus new maps that redistributed voters in major urban centers, have combined to give Democrats new optimism about districts once considered out of reach.<\/p>\n Roughly 43% of Bexar County residents are now in a new congressional district in 2026, according to the Bexar County Elections Department.\u00a0<\/p>\n That\u2019s already created some unusual interest in districts Democrats haven\u2019t paid much attention to in the past.\u00a0<\/p>\n On a Saturday afternoon this month, roughly 100 people turned out to a Democratic primary forum to assess their own party\u2019s candidates in Texas\u2019 21st Congressional District.<\/p>\n The deeply conservative district stretches from San Antonio\u2019s North Side up into the Hill Country, where voters sent House Freedom Caucus leader U.S. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Dripping Springs)<\/a> to represent them in D.C. <\/p>\n Roy is leaving the seat open to run for Texas Attorney General this year, but even after redistricting grew the district\u2019s reach into Bexar County, its voters still would have given Trump roughly 60% of the vote<\/a>.<\/p>\n Nevertheless, Bexar County Democratic Party Chair Michelle Lowe Solis addressed an audience that was eager to believe that Rehmet\u2019s special election victory could be the first domino to fall in a much larger rejection of Trump\u2019s policies this November.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cI want to make sure that everybody realizes that flipping this seat is more important than ever,\u201d Lowe Solis said. \u201cWith the win that we had in Tarrant County \u2026 this is a winnable seat.\u201d<\/p>\n \u2018Nobody can tell what\u2019s winnable\u2019<\/p>\n In a state where decades of GOP dominance has steadily drawn most swing districts out of existence, the March primary is typically when Texas Republicans fight their biggest battles among each other \u2014 before cruising on to relatively safe general elections.\u00a0<\/p>\n But across Texas this year, congressional districts that were crafted around Trump\u2019s high-water mark 2024 performance<\/a> have created some widely differing viewpoints about what might be competitive.<\/p>\n For comparison, the last midterm of a Trump presidency in 2018 saw districts he carried drop by about 11 percentage points for Republicans when Trump himself wasn\u2019t on the ballot.<\/p>\n Now a number of Republicans are trying to bill themselves as the most electable candidate against a Democrat at a time when others in their primary insist there\u2019s no risk of the seat flipping.<\/p>\n \u201cNobody can tell what\u2019s winnable and what\u2019s not winnable,\u201d said Republican consultant Craig Murphy, a longtime aide to former Texas House Speaker Joe Straus who\u2019s working for several San Antonio-area candidates this cycle.\u00a0<\/p>\n Such conflicts were on full display at a Jan. 26 gathering of the Alamo Pachyderm Club, where the group\u2019s Vice President Karen Marshall introduced GOP candidates for the newly created 35th Congressional District on San Antonio\u2019s Southeast side, which Trump would have carried by more than 10 percentage points in 2024.<\/p>\n \u201cFor those who don\u2019t know, that\u2019s a brand-new district created by redistricting, and it is known that it is going to be essentially Republican, so it\u2019s going to be pretty much decided in the primary,\u201d Marshall told the crowd.<\/p>\n But Republicans in that race have different opinions about how red it actually is.\u00a0<\/p>\n Many political watchers believe it was drawn specifically for moderate state House Rep. John Lujan<\/a> (R-San Antonio), who flipped a Democrat-held state legislative seat<\/a> within the new district\u2019s boundaries, and has the backing of Gov. Greg Abbott.<\/p>\n Yet this week Trump sent shockwaves through that 11-way primary, rallying D.C. leaders around a political newcomer, Carlos De La Cruz<\/a>, whose sister is U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Edinburg).<\/p>\n At the Pachyderm Club gathering, Lujan tried to stress the advantages of being a known quantity when defending a tough district.\u00a0<\/p>\n The former firefighter and sheriff\u2019s deputy was the first Republican ever to carry his state legislative district \u2014\u00a0 the type of general election experience most of his party\u2019s up-and-coming talent has never had to contend with.\u00a0<\/p>\n He even helped recruit a former Democrat<\/a> he believes gives his party their best chances at holding his swingy former 118th Texas House District, and opened a shared campaign office together on the South Side.<\/p>\n \u201cAt the White House, they even asked me, \u2018We looked at the numbers. Not even Gov. Abbott has won [the 118th] \u2026 How did you do it?\u201d Lujan told the crowd. \u201cI didn\u2019t have an answer. \u2026 But if we don\u2019t get the right person in [the congressional opening], \u2026 we could lose this race.\u201d<\/p>\n The race is now almost certain to go to a runoff, at a time when GOP leaders want to head off such potentially draining fights.<\/p>\n Meanwhile in Texas\u2019 23rd Congressional District, national Republicans are sticking by a moderate incumbent who conservatives have long wanted to replace, but who national party leaders have long believed is more prepared to defend a massive district in November.<\/p>\n U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales<\/a> (R-San Antonio) was battling rumors about his relationship with a staff member<\/a> last year when Democrats recruited a candidate with national fundraising experience, San Antonio attorney Katy Padilla Stout<\/a>, to capitalize on potential fallout.<\/p>\n Now text messages released this week<\/a> state the staffer had an affair with Gonzales before she died by suicide \u2014 just as voters are heading to the polls for his primary rematch with 30-year-old YouTube creator Brandon Herrera<\/a>, who fell roughly 400 votes<\/a> short of Gonzales in a primary runoff last cycle.<\/p>\n At the Pachyderm Club gathering last month, Herrera made the case that the massive San Antonio-to-El Paso district hasn\u2019t been in danger of turning blue for several cycles now, thanks to redistricting after the 2020 Census.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cA lot of people have voiced concerns over, \u2018Oh well, this was a purple district.\u2019 It used to be, [but] last cycle, even though Tony was a wounded candidate \u2026 he carried the vote in the general by 20%, because of redistricting,\u201d Herrera said.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cIf you ever wanted to get Tony out of office, now is the time.\u201d<\/p>\n In a tough year, however, party leaders are leaving nothing to chance. Trump endorsed Gonzales for reelection, and last month even filed a cease-and-desist asking Herrera to stop using<\/a> his name and likeness in advertisements.<\/p>\n \u201cThere is voter apathy going on across this nation. \u2026 So the messaging has got to be on target, [and the candidates] have got to understand how to reach voters,\u201d Sinclair said of the national GOP\u2019s efforts to use limited resources strategically. <\/p>\n \u201cThat often takes a lot of money, especially for new districts or candidates who\u2019ve never been involved.\u201d<\/p>\n Unbridled Democratic enthusiasm<\/p>\n Generally speaking, the GOP\u2019s mid-cycle redistricting took Bexar County from five members of Congress to four, and left the blue stronghold with a single safe Democratic congressional seat<\/a>.<\/p>\n Similar dynamics have played out across the country in other red-state urban centers since the 2020 Census, where Democrats who flipped 40 seats in that 2018 wave election have far fewer targets to capitalize on in 2026<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cOftentimes, when red states are fully in charge of redistricting and they\u2019re trying to maximize potential partisan gains, a tactic is to basically crack the bluest areas into districts that are red enough, into a bunch of other red districts, or pack the Democratic voters all into one district, which is essentially what they did with San Antonio,\u201d said Erin Covey, who oversees U.S. House race coverage for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.<\/p>\n The Democrats only need to net three seats to flip the U.S. House this year. <\/p>\n But given the lack of prospects across the national landscape, the Democratic Party is now also scrambling to ensure its primaries produce candidates who can take advantage of a favorable environment.<\/p>\n In Texas\u2019 21st Congressional District, local Democrats want to see their party renominate their 2024 candidate, Kristin Hook,<\/a> a former scientist for the National Institutes of Health who worked for U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and moved to San Antonio during the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n But Hook is in a three-way primary with a candidate from Bandera, VA trauma therapist Regina Vanburg<\/a>, who other Democrats believe has more ability to connect with the district\u2019s Hill Country territory.<\/p>\n \u201cI think if this was going to be as simple as who has political experience, that would have already worked,\u201d Vanburg said in an interview after the TX21 forum. \u201cThe incredible position that our nation is in right now is based largely on people\u2019s feelings about things\u2026 [so] I can see how my skillset is exactly what is needed.\u201d<\/p>\n In TX23, Democrats recruited a candidate with national fundraising experience in Padilla Stout, who they hope could take advantage of a good year for their party and a damaging GOP primary.<\/p>\n \u201cCongressional District 23, I think, has a real opportunity for Democrats,\u201d Texas Democratic Party Chair Kendall Scudder said on a call with reporters after the special election victory. \u201cWe are leaving no stone unturned in this election.\u201d<\/p>\n But Padilla Stout now faces a four-way primary with candidates from all across the district, including 2024 contender Santos Limon<\/a>, who recently picked up the backing of the North East Bexar County Democrats.<\/p>\n Perhaps the biggest opportunity this cycle, Texas Democrats say, is now shaping up on San Antonio\u2019s South Side, where a lack of early enthusiasm about the district now has party leaders spending money to boost one of four primary contenders they think has the best shot in November.<\/p>\n Last summer the largest super PAC helping Democrats in Texas produced an analysis<\/a> that said the new TX35 likely wasn\u2019t winnable this cycle, and despite a county full of elected Democrats, no big-name candidates put themselves up for the job, including Sheriff Javier Salazar and Beto Altamirano, who were considered top recruits.<\/p>\n On the Feb. 3 call, however, the PAC\u2019s Executive Director Katherine Fischer said TX35 is \u201cmore flippable\u201d than she initially thought, given the evidence she\u2019s seen about Hispanic voters turning away from the party.<\/p>\n Now that Democrats believe the race is in play, they\u2019re hanging their hopes on Salazar\u2019s public information officer Johnny Garcia<\/a>, whose old-school Democratic values they say match a tough district but whose law enforcement background has been a challenge to sell in a Democratic primary with three other candidates.<\/p>\n A PAC aligned with the Blue Dogs Coalition in Congress is putting $300,000 behind<\/a> Garcia, while several local Democratic groups, including the NEBCD, have put their support behind another candidate, U.S. Marine Corps veteran John Lira<\/a>, who worked in the Biden Administration and ran against Gonzales in 2022, when his home was still in TX23.<\/p>\n In a nod to the gap between national and local leaders in these races, former San Antonio City Councilman John Courage (D9) led the effort to endorse Lira \u2014 stressing loyalty to those who\u2019ve been on the ground with the party through tough times.<\/p>\n \u201cI think many of us met John when he started running a few years ago, and he\u2019s stuck with us,\u201d Courage said. \u201cHe\u2019s not the kind of candidate who shows up at election time, and I think that\u2019s important.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In the final heat of the Texas primary, signs of a potential wave election have GOP leaders scrambling…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":172195,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[8519,82,84,83,2566,92,3028],"class_list":["post-172194","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-san-antonio","tag-2026-election","tag-san-antonio","tag-san-antonio-headlines","tag-san-antonio-news","tag-tony-gonzales","tag-top-story","tag-typedaily"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172194","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=172194"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172194\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/172195"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=172194"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=172194"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=172194"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/TexasCongressional_District21_RepublicanForum_25_01.22.2026_AmberEsparza.jpg\")
Former Major League Baseball player Mark Teixeira speaks at a TX21 debate hosted by the Republican Party of Bexar County at the Norris Event Center Thursday night. Credit: Amber Esparza \/ San Antonio Report<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/TX21-Dem-Forum_jn_15.jpg\")
Candidate Regina Vanburg (D) answers a question during a TX21 candidate forum put on by the Bexar County Democratic Party at Kinected Coworking on Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026 in San Antonio, Texas. Credit: Jo E. Norris for the San Antonio Report<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/john-lujan.jpg\")
State Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) speaks to the Alamo Pachyderm Club at the Schertz Civic Center on Jan. 26. Credit: Andrea Drusch \/ San Antonio Report<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/20260203_SAReport_TX35RepublicanCandidates_SW_0084_A.jpg\")
Carlos De La Cruz, Republican candidate for U.S. House Texas District 35, speaks at a debate hosted by the Republican Party of Bexar County at Norris Conference Centers on Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026 in San Antonio. Credit: Salgu Wissmath for the San Antonio Report<\/p>\n![\"Brandon](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Brenda-Bazan-Bexar-County-Republican-debate-5.jpg\")
Brandon Herrera, candidate for Texas 23rd Congressional District, speaks during the Republican Party of Bexar County debate in February. Credit: Brenda Baz\u00e1n \/ San Antonio Report<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/TX21-Dem-Forum_jn_14.jpg\")
Candidate Kristin Hook (D) answers a question during a TX21 candidate forum put on by the Bexar County Democratic Party on Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026. Credit: Jo E. Norris for the San Antonio Report<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/TX21-Dem-Forum_jn_18.jpg\")
TX21 candidate Regina Vanburg (D) talks with Roger Hughes after a forum put on by the Bexar County Democratic Party at Kinected Co-Working Space. Credit: Jo E. Norris for the San Antonio Report<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/20260110_SAReport_EndorsementForum_SW_0188_A.jpg\")
Katy Padilla Stout, candidate for U.S. House Texas District 23, speaks at the Tejano Democrats SD26 endorsement forum at Luby\u2019s on Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026 in San Antonio. Credit: Salgu Wissmath for the San Antonio Report<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/20260110_SAReport_EndorsementForum_SW_0307_A.jpg\")
Santos Limon, candidate for U.S. House Texas District 35, speaks at the Tejano Democrats SD26 endorsement forum at Luby\u2019s on Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026 in San Antonio. Credit: Salgu Wissmath for the San Antonio Report<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/john-lira-1.jpg\")
North East Bexar County Democrats vote to nominate U.S. Marine Corps veteran John LIra, who ran for TX23 in 2022, as their nominee in TX35, Saturday, Feb. 14 at the Unity Church of San Antonio. Credit: Andrea Drusch \/ San Antonio Report<\/p>\n