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Homes are seen under construction on East Riverside Drive in Austin on Feb. 9. Online brokerage Redfin says Austin sellers outnumber buyers by 124%, one of the widest imbalances in the U.S.<\/p>\n
Jay Janner\/Austin American-Statesman<\/p>\n
During the inaugural 2026 Central Texas Growth Forum<\/a>, Travis County Judge Andy Brown commemorated the Austin Board of Realtors\u2019 100th anniversary \u2014 a somewhat unusual milestone to mark at a first-time event, but the juxtaposition seemed fitting.<\/p>\n The Central Texas housing market is hitting the reset button, too.\u00a0After years of rapid growth, a pandemic-era surge and a sharp cooling period, it’s entering 2026 in recalibration mode.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Homes under construction in a 2022 file photo. Austin-area homebuilding has declined after a peak reached that year.<\/p>\n Austin American-Statesman file photo Homes for sale in a 2023 file photo.<\/p>\n Austin American-Statesman file photo Travis County Judge Andy Brown presents a proclamation marking the Austin Board of Realtors\u2019 100th anniversary to 2026 president John Crowe at the Central Texas Growth Forum. Crowe said he is \u201ccautiously optimistic\u201d about the Austin housing market in 2026.<\/p>\n Austin Board of Realtors<\/p>\n At the January forum, Unlock\u00a0MLS researcher Vaike O\u2019Grady<\/a> cautioned that residential real estate is likely to be more competitive this year than during the pandemic-era surge. Still, she highlighted several bright spots as the market moves into the new year.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are not in panic mode in Austin by any stretch of the imagination,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n Housing policy shifts, Texas\u2019 continued population growth, Austin\u2019s demographics and the region\u2019s healthy technology sector were all noted as positives heading into 2026. The biggest challenge, O\u2019Grady said, will be consumer confidence.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n \u201cWe have some large global shifts and uncertainties right now,\u201d she said. \u201cIf people aren\u2019t confident they\u2019re going to have a job, they\u2019re not going to buy a house.\u201d<\/p>\n DECEMBER STATS: Central Texas housing market saw slight uptick at year\u2019s end<\/a><\/p>\n Looking back on 2025<\/p>\n Austin\u2019s once red-hot housing market\u00a0cooled to room temperature in 2025<\/a>, with the number of closed sales across the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro falling 3.2% to 29,383 transactions.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Sales trailed 2024 levels through much of the year and November closings were down nearly 16% year over year before rebounding 1.9% in December. Inventory climbed above six months — the industry benchmark for balance between buyers and sellers — earlier in the year before settling at 4.2 months by year\u2019s end.<\/p>\n \u201c2025 wasn\u2019t a year defined by urgency. It was defined by adjustment,\u201d O\u2019Grady said.<\/p>\n Prices remained relatively steady. The metro\u2019s median home price for 2025 was $435,000, down 2.4% from 2024, while Travis County\u2019s annual median rose 0.5% to $508,000 as sales dipped 1%.<\/p>\n O\u2019Grady explained that much of the housing stock delivered between 2015 and 2023 was built with higher land and construction costs, which has contributed to stubbornly high prices despite softening demand. \u00a0<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Early signs in 2026<\/p>\n January data suggests the market is beginning the year with renewed buyer activity, even as closings lagged year-ago levels.<\/p>\n Closed sales were down 14.8% but pending sales rose 10.1% year over year to 2,349 transactions \u2014 up more than 23% from December \u2014 according to data from the area’s multiple listing service. \u00a0<\/p>\n The median home price was $400,495, down 2.3%, while active listings totaled 10,083, up 2.3%. Months of inventory came in at 4.0, down 1.4 months year over year.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n In discussing\u00a0January numbers<\/a>, O\u2019Grady described the data as reflective of a market that has moved out of an overheated phase and into one where supply, pricing and demand are interacting more predictably.<\/p>\n Unlock MLS research adviser Vaike O\u2019Grady speaks during the 2026 Central Texas Growth Forum on Jan. 28. O\u2019Grady said 2025 was \u201ca year defined by adjustment\u201d and expressed optimism about housing activity heading into the spring.<\/p>\n Austin Board of Realtors<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re off to a good start this year,\u201d she\u00a0said.<\/p>\n John Crowe<\/a>, 2026 president of Unlock MLS and the Austin Board of Realtors, described the mood as cautiously optimistic.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n \u201cDeals are still happening across Central Texas but they\u2019re taking more time and strategy to get across the finish line,\u201d he said. \u201cNegotiations are more nuanced and pricing decisions matter more than they did in recent years.\u201d<\/p>\n Separate research from Redfin suggests Austin remains one of the strongest buyer\u2019s markets in the country<\/a>. In a new report, the online brokerage estimated that sellers outnumbered buyers across the metro area by 124% in January \u2014 one of the widest gaps among the 50 largest U.S. metros.<\/p>\n Nationally, Redfin found there were 44% more home sellers than buyers<\/a>, the second-largest imbalance on record. By the brokerage\u2019s definition, the country has been in a buyer\u2019s market since mid-2024. That gap has been most pronounced in the South and West, regions that experienced heavy homebuilding during the pandemic surge as remote workers relocated.<\/p>\n The imbalance of supply and demand has shifted leverage toward buyers, creating more negotiating room than in recent years even if prices remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Crowe said sellers who adjust expectations to current conditions can still expect homes to sell.<\/p>\n \u201cSellers who are realistic about where they price their house, the house will move,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Job growth and interest rates<\/p>\n Eldon Rude of 360\u00b0 Real Estate Analytics<\/a> said the health of Austin\u2019s for-sale housing market has traditionally been tied to two primary drivers: job growth and interest rates. Strong job growth fuels domestic and international in-migration, creating housing demand, while lower interest rates enhances affordability for would-be buyers.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Over the past two to three years, Rude said, both forces have worked against the market’s vitality. Job growth has slowed from pandemic-era highs and mortgage rates remain elevated compared to the ultra-low levels of 2020 and 2021.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cUntil one or both of these drivers move in the right direction, I don\u2019t anticipate a sharp rebound in our for-sale housing market,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n A man cycles past a house and an empty lot on East Riverside Drive in Austin, on Feb. 9.<\/p>\n Jay Janner\/Austin American-Statesman<\/p>\n Nationally, rates fell below 6% last week for the first time since 2022 but mortgage data showed sales remained sluggish across the U.S.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n In Austin, closings for previously owned homes have remained relatively flat for three years, Rude noted \u2014 roughly the same period during which job growth slowed and borrowing costs climbed. Many homeowners who refinanced at historically low rates have chosen to stay put. Others are reluctant to sell for less than what their homes were worth at the 2022 pricing peak.<\/p>\n \u201cI expect total available listings in the spring and summer of 2026 to surpass the totals we saw in 2025 as more existing homeowners who have been waiting to sell finally decide to list their homes,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n Crowe added that homeowners who choose to stay put also reduces the number of properties entering the market, tightening supply and influencing overall market balance.<\/p>\n \u201cIn Austin, we\u2019ve always been in a position where we do not have enough homes for people,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n New-home construction<\/p>\n Despite the demand, construction of new homes remained sluggish in 2025, though.<\/p>\n Between mid-2020 and mid-2022, Rude said, homebuilders increased the pace of annual starts by about 25% in response to surging job growth and in-migration. Since then, though, the pace has fallen sharply.<\/p>\n \u201cResponding to slower job growth and sharply higher interest rates, builders have slowed their production pace in recent months to better balance the supply of new homes with current demand,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n RELATED:\u00a0Austin \u2018significantly oversupplied\u2019 with build-ready home lots<\/a><\/p>\n O\u2019Grady’s data also showed a slowdown. She\u00a0said builders spent much of 2025 evaluating land positions, delaying new takedowns and working through their existing inventory of new homes. Luxury custom builders have seen more stability, she said, particularly in western Travis County.<\/p>\n In some submarkets, Rude said, builders are offering price reductions and interest-rate buydowns to move inventory\u00a0\u2014 incentives that can give new homes an advantage over the resale market.<\/p>\n Austin\u2019s housing market enters 2026 in recalibration mode, with rising listings, steadier demand and market experts cautiously optimistic. Here, the Edgewick condo community in South Austin is seen in an aerial file photo.<\/p>\n Jay Janner\/Austin American-Statesman file photo<\/p>\n Beyond interest rates and job growth, immigration policy could also influence both demand and development in the year ahead.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n O\u2019Grady said Austin has historically attracted international buyers but that segment of demand has dropped sharply through the first year of the Trump administration\u00a0as some would-be buyers reassess moves to the United States. She also noted that much of the region\u2019s construction workforce is made up of immigrant labor<\/a>. If enforcement tightens while demand improves, that could affect labor availability.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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