{"id":18856,"date":"2025-10-24T05:55:17","date_gmt":"2025-10-24T05:55:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/18856\/"},"modified":"2025-10-24T05:55:17","modified_gmt":"2025-10-24T05:55:17","slug":"immigration-crackdown-likely-slowing-texas-job-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/18856\/","title":{"rendered":"Immigration crackdown likely slowing Texas job growth"},"content":{"rendered":"

AUSTIN (Nexstar) \u2014 In 2025, job growth in Texas is at 1.2%. Nationwide, job growth is at 0.6%. Both of those numbers are the lowest they\u2019ve been since the pandemic, and according to a report<\/a> authored by three Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas employees and a University of North Florida (UNF) professor, immigration crackdown is likely a contributing factor.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is very clear that a lot of immigrants \u2014 and even some U.S. natives \u2014 are very worried about the crackdown that is occurring,\u201d UNF Economics Professor and survey co-author Madeline Zavodny said. \u201cThe heavy presence of ICE in lots of cities and even some rural areas is making lots of people afraid to go to work, afraid to take their children to school, afraid to go shopping and so on.\u201d<\/p>\n

The report uses a mixture of economic data and findings from the Dallas Fed\u2019s Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS).<\/a> The report said it may underestimate the impact on Texas businesses, because TBOS only tracks the manufacturing, service and retail sectors \u2014 leaving out the immigrant-heavy sectors of construction and agriculture.<\/p>\n

One of the largest impacts on businesses this year has been their ability to retain workers, according to the Dallas Fed. In their July survey, a majority of executives in the manufacturing, services and retail spaces all reported having a worsened ability to retain workers over the past three months, a sharp decline from just six months prior.<\/p>\n

\"Chart<\/p>\n

Chart 2<\/p>\n

The impact isn\u2019t just limited to the workforce.<\/p>\n

\u201cImmigrants are consumers as well,\u201d Zavodny noted. \u201c[We\u2019re] seeing a drop in labor demand, ultimately, that\u2019s just as concerning as the drip in labor supply. If people aren\u2019t spending money, then employers don\u2019t need as many workers and they\u2019re not going to sell as many goods.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018Americans care a lot that we change immigration policy\u2019<\/p>\n

A separate University of Houston\/Texas Southern University<\/a> poll showed 51% of Texans support President Donald Trump\u2019s immigration policies, with 80% support from those who voted for him.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think it was pretty clear from the last election that Americans care a lot that we change immigration policy,\u201d Zavodny said.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, 47% of Texans believe his immigration policies are making the economy weaker, while only 41% believe they\u2019re making it stronger.<\/p>\n

\u201cOverall, Texans have a nuanced view on the Trump administration\u2019s immigration policy,\u201d Rice University Political Science Professor and co-author of the UH\/TSU poll Mark P. Jones, said. \u201cA plurality think that it has reduced the amount of crime in Texas, but a plurality also think that it has weakened or reduced the Texas economy.\u201d<\/p>\n

In the TBOS, anonymous executives gave comments<\/a> on Trump\u2019s immigration enforcement.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are very concerned over employees that have worked for 10, 12, 15 years that may or may not be subject to deportation,\u201d a furniture manufacturing executive wrote.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe were required to fire over 40 employees that had been with the company for over 20 years or face severe penalties,\u201d a wood product manufacturing executive wrote. \u201cThe law and reality are in direct conflict. The government punishes the wrong people.\u201d<\/p>\n

In addition to cracking down on those who entered the country illegally, the Trump administration has also removed temporary protective status for millions of immigrants who were legally able to work.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor the past few years most of the growth in our labor force and in our population [was] coming from immigrants who had some form of legal right to be in the United States and a legal right to work,\u201d Zavodny said. \u201cThese are being rapidly revoked by the Trump administration, and I think that leaves employers in a bind.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some of those employers are represented by the Texas Restaurant Association (TRA), who joined onto the \u2018Seat the Table\u2019 movement<\/a> with other hospitality leaders and American Business Immigration Coalition Action.<\/p>\n

\u201cLabor shortages, rising costs, and softening consumer traffic are creating significant challenges for Texas restaurants. Increased immigration enforcement activity is exacerbating all three of these pressure points for the industry,\u201d TRA Chief Public Affairs Officer Kelsey Erickson Streufert, said in a statement. \u201cTo address these challenges, the Texas Restaurant Association is partnering with the American Business Immigration Coalition Action and hospitality leaders from all 50 states in Seat the Table, a national campaign urging the federal government to create work permits for long-term, trusted immigrants who are essential to our food system.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018All businesses want is reliability\u2019<\/p>\n

The report noted that immigration enforcement is just one piece of a complicated economic puzzle \u2014 another key piece being uncertainty over tariffs.<\/p>\n

\u201cBroadly speaking, Texas\u2019s growth model relies on people moving here\u2026 whether that\u2019s coming from other states or other countries,\u201d Angelou Economics Executive Vice President Matt Patton, said. \u201cThe Federal Reserve piece also cites things like tariffs [and] interest rates. It\u2019s a combination of all of those policies and then macro-level economic pieces in motion together.\u201d<\/p>\n

The lack of clarity on these issues, with many tariffs constantly changing and being announced through various channels of communication, limits how far out businesses can plan.<\/p>\n

\u201cAll businesses want is reliability,\u201d Patton said. \u201cIt\u2019s just an unknown now to look at long-term planning, everything becomes much more short-term. How do we go day-to-day?\u201d<\/p>\n

Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to KXAN Austin. <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"AUSTIN (Nexstar) \u2014 In 2025, job growth in Texas is at 1.2%. Nationwide, job growth is at 0.6%.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":18857,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[14483,145,14482,8003,14481,14485,14484,27,29,28,14486,14487],"class_list":["post-18856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-texas","tag-american-business-immigration-coalition","tag-donald-trump","tag-federal-reserve-bank-of-dallas","tag-job-growth","tag-madeline-zavodny","tag-retail-sectors","tag-rice-university-political-science-professor","tag-texas","tag-texas-headlines","tag-texas-news","tag-unf-economics-professor","tag-university-of-north-florida"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18856","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18856"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18856\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18857"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18856"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18856"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18856"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}