{"id":18906,"date":"2025-10-24T06:43:22","date_gmt":"2025-10-24T06:43:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/18906\/"},"modified":"2025-10-24T06:43:22","modified_gmt":"2025-10-24T06:43:22","slug":"mississippi-state-vs-texas-football-week-9-longhorns-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/18906\/","title":{"rendered":"Mississippi State vs Texas football: Week 9 Longhorns predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sure, No. 22\u00a0Texas football<\/a> improved to 5-2 and 2-1 in the SEC last week with a coveted conference\u00a0road win at Kentucky<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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But the 16-13 overtime triumph over the struggling Wildcats didn\u2019t necessarily feel like\u00a0 a victory, despite the assertions of All-American safety Michael Taaffe<\/a>. The offense limped to its lowest production in a decade with 179 total yards, its fewest since picking up 163 yards in a 36-3 loss in 2015 to Notre Dame. And Kentucky managed to win the time -of-possession by nearly a 2-1 margin, a dangerous discrepancy entering a game against a ball-hogging squad like\u00a0Mississippi State<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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RELATED: Arch Manning,\u00a0other projected Heisman candidates share common struggle<\/a><\/p>\n

To make matters worse, Taaffe \u2014 the Longhorns\u2019 leading tackler \u2014 will miss Saturday’s game after undergoing surgery\u00a0earlier this week<\/a> on his thumb.<\/p>\n

Can an inexperienced Longhorns offense line<\/a> enduring its share of hard-earned lessons protect quarterback Arch Manning<\/a> and clear some holes for a backfield that may welcome back CJ Baxter<\/a>? Can Manning make plays downfield when he does get time to throw? And can the Texas defense<\/a> continue to hold up if it has to spend more than 80 plays on the field, which happened against Kentucky?<\/p>\n

The Longhorns need to answer these questions if they hope to fend off a dangerous Mississippi State squad and keep their thin hopes alive<\/a> for a spot in the College Football Playoff.<\/p>\n

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Here’s a full scouting report for the Texas Longhorns vs. the Mississippi State Bulldogs:<\/p>\n

MORE: Texas football coach Steve Sarkisian: Defense, special teams can carry UT as offense struggles<\/a><\/p>\n

Texas (5-2, 2-1 SEC) vs. Mississippi State (4-3, 0-3)\u00a0<\/p>\n

When:\u00a03:15 p.m. Saturday<\/p>\n

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Where:\u00a0Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi<\/p>\n

TV\/radio:\u00a0ESPN, 1300, 98.1, 105.3 (Spanish)<\/p>\n

Weather:\u00a0Cloudy with high in the mid 70s at kickoff and dipping into the 60s in the second half. Pack a poncho; there\u2019s a chance of light rain.<\/p>\n

\"Texas<\/p>\n

Texas Longhorns linebacker Colin Simmons (1) celebrates a sack during the Red River Rivalry between the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners at the Cotton Bowl on Saturday Oct. 11, 2025 in Dallas, Texas.<\/p>\n

Aaron E. Martinez\/Austin American-Statesman<\/p>\n

Texas vs Mississippi State football betting info<\/p>\n

Moneyline:\u00a0 Texas -275, Mississippi State +210<\/p>\n

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Spread: Texas is favored by 7<\/p>\n

Texas history: Mississippi State<\/p>\n

All-time:\u00a0Texas leads 3-2<\/p>\n

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Last meeting: Texas 35, Mississippi State 13<\/a> (Sept. 28, 2024)<\/p>\n

Most memorable meeting:\u00a0 Texas 38, Mississippi State 11 (1999).\u00a0<\/p>\n

The only bowl meeting between the programs and the first bowl game at Texas for coach Mack Brown served as a fond farewell for Heisman Trophy winner Ricky Williams, who rushed for 208 yards and two touchdowns on 30 carries. It was the Longhorns’ first New Year’s Day bowl win since 1981 and it helped jump-start a decade of dominance for Brown at Texas.<\/p>\n

Know the foe: Mississippi State<\/p>\n

Last game:\u00a0Lost at Florida, 23-21, Oct. 11 \u00a0<\/p>\n

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Players to watch:\u00a0Blake Shapen, the Bulldogs\u2019 second-year quarterback who spent four seasons with\u00a0Baylor, renews acquaintances with the Longhorns after missing last year’s matchup. The 6-foot-1, 210-pounder has been efficient with 1,525 yards and nine touchdowns on 67% passing but has tossed five interceptions, including a costly late pick in the loss to Florida.<\/p>\n

WR Brenen Thompson, a former Longhorn<\/a> and high school track star from the West Texas town of Spearman, ranks fourth in the SEC with 533 yards receiving and averages 18.4 yards per catch.<\/p>\n

Safety Brylan Lanier has found a home at his fourth school in five seasons. He\u2019s started 17 games for the Bulldogs over the past two years and leads a resurgent defense with three interceptions to go along with 32 tackles and 1\u00bd tackles for a loss.<\/p>\n

Central Texas connections: Lehman’s Tanner Johnson\u00a0has played in all seven games this season as part of the secondary rotation and has seven tackles and a forced fumble. Sean Pleasant, a freshman defensive back from Connally, has yet to record a tackle and will likely\u00a0redshirt.<\/p>\n

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MORE: How a fourth-and-goal stop against Kentucky showed off Texas Longhorns depth on defense<\/a><\/p>\n

When Texas has the ball<\/p>\n

The Bulldogs ranked last in almost every defensive category a year ago while finishing last in the SEC, but an improved defense has keyed a turnaround of sorts even if Mississippi State still seeks its first conference win. The Bulldogs allow 20.3 points a game \u2014 down from 34.1 in 2024 \u2014 and are especially stingy against the pass. They allow just 59.2% passing and lead the SEC with 10 interceptions. Manning hasn\u2019t turned the ball over in two consecutive games, but he\u2019ll be tested by opportunistic Mississippi State.<\/p>\n

RB CJ Baxter<\/a> practiced this week and will likely join Quintrevion Wisner<\/a> in the Texas backfield, which will give the Longhorns their expected one-two rushing punch for the first time since the season opener at Ohio State<\/a>. Texas running backs accounted for just 50 yards on 15 carries against Kentucky, but a Mississippi State run defense that includes former Texas DT Jaray Bledsoe (15 tackles, 3\u00bd TFL) ranks second-to-last in the SEC by allowing 166.7 yards a game.<\/p>\n

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When Mississippi State has the ball<\/p>\n

A West Texas native from Andrews who\u2019s coached in the Texas high school ranks, coach Jeff Lebby has an offensive background with roots in the spread offense. He coached under both current Tennessee coach Josh Heupel as well as former Baylor head coach Art Briles, who\u2019s his father-in-law. The Bulldogs will spread Texas out and try to take advantage of\u00a0Taaffe\u2019s absence by getting the ball to Thompson and Anthony Evans III (42 catches, 471 yards) in space. \u00a0<\/p>\n

RB Fluff Bothwell was off to a stellar start to the season with 465 yards and six touchdowns on 84 carries before suffering an injury Oct. 5 in a loss to Texas A&M. He missed the Florida game, and Lebby this week said “it\u2019s a stretch” that he\u2019ll suit up against Texas. Davon Booth (22 carries, 105 yards) picked up the slack against the Gators but faces a Texas defense that’s fifth in the nation against the run with 83.3 rushing yards allowed per game.<\/p>\n

MORE: Steve Sarkisian benched Quinn Ewers midgame. Why he hasn’t done the same with Arch Manning<\/a><\/p>\n

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Texas vs Mississippi State key matchup<\/p>\n

Texas safety Derek Williams Jr.\u00a0 vs. Mississippi State receivers<\/p>\n

With Taaffe out, Williams<\/a> will likely fill in at free safety as the Longhorns\u2019 last line of defense. Lebby, the Bulldogs\u2019 play caller, will test Williams with his fleet set of receivers.<\/p>\n

Texas vs Mississippi State predictions<\/p>\n

Danny Davis: Texas. With a November gantlet up next, Texas can\u2019t afford to play with its food in Starkville against a Mississippi State team that has a good win over Arizona State on its resume but is still looking for its first SEC victory after last week\u2019s heartbreaking loss to Florida. Expect a good response from the embattled Arch Manning and Steve Sarkisian and another solid performance from a defense that has kept UT\u2019s title hopes alive.<\/p>\n

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Thomas Jones:\u00a0Mississippi State 23, Texas 20.\u00a0The Bulldogs beat Arizona State and took Tennessee to the wire in a 41-34 loss in front of their cowbell-clanging home crowd, and the absence of Taaffe could help Mississippi State make just enough plays to pull off the upset.<\/p>\n

David Eckert: Mississippi State 24, Texas 21. The Longhorns’ offensive ineptitude catches up with them on the road against the Bulldogs, who are better than their winless SEC record suggests.<\/p>\n

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