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People crowd Sixth Street in Austin, Texas, March 15, 2019.<\/p>\n
Austin prides itself on being the \u201cLive Music Capital of the World,\u201d but residents of the Texas capital could find themselves singing the rent-hike blues if predictions from some real estate analysts hold true.<\/p>\n
Currently, Austin\u2019s rental landscape sounds like a dream. Realtor.com<\/a>, for one, crowed about the city\u2019s 33 consecutive months of rent price drops as of January (1), while Zillow put the average rental price of a one-bedroom apartment at $1,272 \u2014 down $78 year-over-year and 15% below the national average as of March (2).<\/p>\n Must Read<\/p>\n Such low rents may be partly credited to the city\u2019s 10-year plan<\/a> to construct 135,000 housing units, including 60,000 affordable units, starting in 2018. A surge of new residents during the pandemic also spurred development, reports The Wall Street Journal, as waves of white-collar workers arrived seeking more favorable tax laws and a low cost of living (3).<\/p>\n But the rental supply is beginning to run dry. According to The Journal, citing data from real estate info firm CoStar, fewer than 9,000 new apartment units are expected in Austin this year \u2014 roughly half of last year\u2019s total and 72% lower than the 2024 peak. Housing demand, however, appears stable.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re starting to turn a corner,\u201d Platte Canyon Capital co-founder Brennen Degner told the publication in an article published Feb. 24. \u201cNext, you\u2019ll start to see rents pick up, you\u2019ll start to see concessions burn off.\u201d<\/p>\n Bursting Austin’s bubble<\/p>\n Analysts predict rents in Austin will remain flat in 2026 or possibly increase, reports The Journal. One local renter, Jeremy Homol, said the rental perks he previously enjoyed had evaporated, and that \u201ca lot less builders are coming to town.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s not these insane new apartment complexes becoming available every other day,\u201d he told the news outlet.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, a January report from real estate firm Matthews found that Austin\u2019s residential market \u201cis seeing demand outpace supply for the first time since 2021\u201d while forecasting that \u201cthe combination of moderating supply, sustained demand and a narrowing gap between deliveries and absorption suggests the market is moving past its worst imbalance\u201d (4) The same report also predicts \u201cpotential rent growth by 2027.\u201d<\/p>\n Read More: Non-millionaires can now invest in this $1B private real estate fund starting at just $10<\/a><\/p>\n Read More: Warren Buffett\u2019s 8 simple and repeatable rules to get rich (and stay rich) in America<\/a><\/p>\n A change in rents is one thing, but housing affordability is a separate issue for many. A local report by Fox 7 Austin, citing government data, noted the median family income in the Austin metro area was $133,800 in fiscal year 2025, up nearly 40% since 2019 (5). That increase is largely attributed to a growth in high-paying workers, and has had an impact on affordable housing.<\/p>\n \u201cAs rents have gone down, we have seen less of an impact on affordability in affordable housing, because a lot of affordable housing ties rent limits to the area median income,\u201d Shoshana Krieger, project director for Building and Strengthening Tenant Action, told the broadcaster.<\/p>\n Avoiding the affordability illusion<\/p>\n There may still be time for those interested to get in on Austin\u2019s lower-than-average rental market, but it\u2019s key to remain aware of the mirage of affordability. After all, nobody wants to move across the country only to find their new home is not what they expected.<\/p>\n It\u2019s an issue that\u2019s given rise to a new breed of relocators known as \u201chalf backs\u201d \u2014 those who move from northern states to warmer southern ones, only to move \u201chalfway\u201d back north again due to issues such as affordability.<\/p>\n \u201cThere are a wide range of reasons why seniors are moving \u2018half back\u2019 home,\u201d senior living writer Alissa Sauer told National Mortgage Professional (6). \u201cMid-South states still offer the weather that draws seniors to more traditional retirement states, but often without the crowds and the cost.\u201d<\/p>\n Florida is an example. A snowbird haven, many who live in expensive northern cities flock to the Sunshine State to live, work or simply enjoy their golden years.<\/p>\n Many then discover, for example, that Florida is suffering from a homeowner\u2019s insurance<\/a> crisis, with premiums being driven up<\/a> by climate events like flooding and hurricanes. Some providers have even abandoned the state<\/a> altogether. Bankrate ranks Florida as the third-most expensive state for homeowners insurance in the U.S. with an average annual premium of $5,838 for a $300,000 dwelling, compared to the national average of $2,424 (7).<\/p>\n Florida isn\u2019t alone as a \u201chalf back\u201d state, but it does offer a cautionary tale about the illusion of affordability and the importance of taking all expenses into account before moving all the way across the country and then back again.<\/p>\n What To Read Next<\/p>\n Join 250,000+ readers and get Moneywise\u2019s best stories and exclusive interviews first \u2014 clear insights curated and delivered weekly. Subscribe now.<\/a><\/p>\n Article sources<\/p>\n We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our editorial ethics and guidelines<\/a>.<\/p>\n Realtor.com (1<\/a>); Zillow (2<\/a>); The Wall Street Journal (3<\/a>); Matthews (4<\/a>); Fox 7 Austin (5<\/a>); National Mortgage Professional (6<\/a>); Bankrate (7<\/a>)<\/p>\n This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"People crowd Sixth Street in Austin, Texas, March 15, 2019. Austin prides itself on being the \u201cLive Music…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":190682,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[1500,132,134,11338,133,5215,111,11330,75687],"class_list":{"0":"post-190681","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-austin","8":"tag-affordable-housing","9":"tag-austin","10":"tag-austin-headlines","11":"tag-austin-metro","12":"tag-austin-news","13":"tag-dave-ramsey","14":"tag-real-estate","15":"tag-robert-kiyosaki","16":"tag-wall-street-journal"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/190681","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=190681"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/190681\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/190682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=190681"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=190681"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=190681"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}