Tarrant County\u2019s primary elections saw unusually high turnout, with Democrats out-mobilizing Republicans for the second time in recent years and outpacing their party\u2019s statewide turnout.<\/p>\n
High turnout in the March 3 primaries can be a strong indicator of voter interest and momentum as attention shifts to the general election in November, political experts and local officials say.<\/p>\n
Just under 26% of Tarrant\u2019s 1.3 million registered voters participated in the March 3 primaries, according to unofficial returns from the county elections office. About 56% of those voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary.<\/p>\n
\u201cPeople are going to turn out in November,\u201d said Keith Gaddie, a political science professor at Texas Christian University. \u201cAngry voters are motivated voters. And right now, Democrats are really angry. That\u2019s why you got the turnout you\u2019ve got.\u201d<\/p>\n
Historically a GOP stronghold, Tarrant County has shown occasional signs of trending purple, with voters supporting a handful of Democrats at the top of the ballot during recent elections. Political analysts have long hailed the county as a \u201cbellwether\u201d for national elections but more recently agreed<\/a> either party could win under the right circumstances.<\/p>\n So, has a \u201cblue wave\u201d washed over Tarrant?<\/p>\n While it\u2019s too early to tell, the \u201cstars really aligned\u201d for Democratic wins this year, said Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University.<\/p>\n \u201cIf Democrats don\u2019t produce a blue wave in this cycle and don\u2019t make major gains in Texas in this cycle, then I think they\u2019re not going to for the foreseeable future,\u201d Wilson said.<\/p>\n The primary turnout is a hopeful sign for Democrats, he said, but likely not an indicator of a \u201cslam dunk electoral rampage\u201d for Nov. 3\u2019s general election, which consistently has higher turnout than March elections.<\/p>\n Statewide, about 52% of the nearly 4.3 million Texas primary voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary\u2019s U.S. Senate race while 48% did in the GOP primary, according to unofficial results.<\/p>\n Allison Campolo, chair of the Tarrant County Democratic Party, attributed her party\u2019s turnout to well-coordinated block walking and door knocking to mobilize people to the polls. She believes Democrats also were energized by the \u201ctactics and antics\u201d of local Republicans such as County Judge Tim O\u2019Hare, who did not return a request for comment.<\/p>\n \u201cVoters are really ready for a change, ready to see Democrats in office, and we saw that in the primary voting numbers,\u201d Campolo said.<\/p>\n The turnout in Tarrant County follows a nationwide trend over the past decade of increased voter engagement, Wilson said. He noted that the primary turnout \u2014 while high \u2014 still only represents a small fraction of registered voters. Recent years have seen combined primary turnout hover between 15% and 20%.<\/p>\n Primaries are often \u201cdisproportionately\u201d influenced by activist groups \u2014 in both Republican and Democratic races \u2014 who are more plugged in and engaged with local politics, Wilson said. The November election draws a broader turnout with more diverse interests, he added.<\/p>\n Tim Davis, chair of the Tarrant County Republican Party, isn\u2019t worried about what the Democratic turnout could mean for November. He views the two parties\u2019 primaries as \u201capples and oranges.\u201d He believes the Democratic ballot featured more competitive races than the Republican one.<\/p>\n \u201cNo, we\u2019re not experiencing a blue wave,\u201d Davis said. \u201cWhat we\u2019re seeing is enthusiasm among voters on their side for a race that they\u2019ve had no equivalent for in recent history, in their Senate race.\u201d<\/p>\n Anything could happen in November, Davis said. He pointed to Tarrant County primaries in 2008, which saw 200,317 Democratic voters and 101,761 GOP voters. That year, about 21% of the county\u2019s registered voters cast Democratic ballots and 10.5% cast GOP ballots.<\/p>\n Despite Democrats initially out-mobilizing the GOP, then-Republican presidential candidate John McCain would go on to take 55% of Tarrant County\u2019s vote in November to Barack Obama\u2019s 44%.<\/p>\n Wilson, the political science professor, rejected Davis\u2019 notion that Democratic turnout in the primaries wouldn\u2019t last into November, while still acknowledging the 2008 results.<\/p>\n Going into March, Democrats had momentum after Taylor Rehmet flipped a historically GOP-held Texas Senate seat<\/a> in a January runoff.<\/p>\n Wilson said he feels confident that Democrats will have \u201cstrong turnout and a fair bit of energy\u201d in the general election.<\/p>\n \u201cThe wild card is how well Republicans are able to match them. If Republicans show lackluster, listless turnout, it could be a really catastrophic year for them,\u201d Wilson said. \u201cIf, on the other hand, they\u2019re able to generate some energy of their own \u2014 either positive energy or negative energy to counteract Democrats \u2014 then they could mitigate the losses.\u201d<\/p>\n The day after Rehmet\u2019s win, the county judge urged Republicans to get civically engaged<\/a> and prevent losing what he called \u201cthe most important county in the entire country.\u201d<\/p>\n At the local GOP\u2019s election night watch party March 3, O\u2019Hare said many can get complacent when their party is in control. However, he said local Republicans are going to have \u201ca more robust ground game than we\u2019ve ever had in Tarrant County.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cAnd I\u2019m confident \u2014 when all is said and done \u2014 in November, Tarrant County will still be a bright red flag.\u201d<\/p>\n In primary elections, voters choose a Republican candidate and Democratic candidate to face off in the November election. Texas primaries are open, meaning voters are not required to register in either party to vote in a primary.<\/p>\n Texas GOP officials have long sought to close the primaries, which would block Democrats from voting in Republican primaries and vice versa.<\/p>\n Although he understands the concern around open primaries, Gaddie said he doesn\u2019t buy the argument that Republicans could have significantly impacted Democratic turnout by voting in the opposite primary. Infiltrating another party\u2019s primary successfully is an \u201cexceedingly difficult coordination game to play off,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Plus, Gaddie added, both primaries saw packed races at the top of the ballot.<\/p>\n \u201cRepublican voters had every motivation possible to go to the Republican primary and cast their preferences,\u201d Gaddie said. \u201cDemocratic voters had every motivation possible to vote in the Democratic primary.\u201d<\/p>\n In the high-profile primaries for U.S. Senate, Tarrant County Democrats swung about 11 percentage points for U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett over Texas Rep. James Talarico, who ultimately won the party\u2019s nomination for November. Meanwhile, Republicans gave 45% of their vote to incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and 38% to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who are now in a runoff to be the GOP\u2019s nominee this fall.<\/p>\n Gaddie said the county\u2019s Senate votes are fitting given its demographics.<\/p>\n Tarrant is composed mostly of communities of color. On the Democratic side, Crockett, who is Black, likely appealed more to the county\u2019s diverse Democratic base than Talarico, who is white.<\/p>\n On the GOP side, statewide results saw \u201cold-city Republicans\u201d prefer Cornyn, who has held the seat since 2002. However, new-generation Republicans in rural communities preferred Paxton, who has painted himself as a political outsider and passionate supporter of President Donald Trump<\/a>, Gaddie noted.<\/p>\n None of the local GOP races are going to a runoff, which Davis said indicates his party is united behind candidates. He describes primary elections as a \u201cfamily fight\u201d \u2014 one that he\u2019s thankful is now behind him.<\/p>\n \u201cWe have a very united party, despite the fact that we just went through the family fight that we did,\u201d Davis said. \u201cRepublicans are excited to move forward toward November.\u201d<\/p>\n Campolo said she\u2019s heartened by the support she witnessed Wednesday among Democratic candidates congratulating each others\u2019 wins and conceding losses. She doesn\u2019t see it as a loss that multiple Democratic races are going to a runoff.<\/p>\n \u201cI see a lot of unity,\u201d Campolo said of her party. \u201cJust because we have a lot of candidates to choose from this time doesn\u2019t mean there\u2019s a fracturing of the party by any means.\u201d<\/p>\n But she\u2019s not taking primary turnout for granted. Democrats must \u201cwork extremely hard and stay very focused\u201d to continue mobilizing voters to successfully flip seats in November, Campolo said.<\/p>\n Davis said he expects Republicans to be mobilized in the fall over fear that Tarrant County could change into a place they don\u2019t recognize. Davis said his party\u2019s job is now to express GOP values, convince people they\u2019re better than what Democrats are offering, and inspire them to vote red.<\/p>\n \u201cThat doesn\u2019t mean that we can rest. That doesn\u2019t mean that we can take anything for granted,\u201d Davis said. \u201cOur party has made that mistake in the past, both locally, even in the state and certainly nationally.\u201d<\/p>\n Cecilia Lenzen and Drew Shaw are government accountability reporters for the Fort Worth Report. Contact them at cecilia.lenzen@fortworthreport.org<\/a>and drew.shaw@fortworthreport.org<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n At the Fort Worth Report, news decisions are made independently of our board members and financial supporters. Read more about our editorial independence policy here<\/a>.<\/p>\n This article<\/a> first appeared on Fort Worth Report<\/a> and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Tarrant County\u2019s primary elections saw unusually high turnout, with Democrats out-mobilizing Republicans for the second time in recent…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":192563,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[116,118,117],"class_list":{"0":"post-192562","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-fort-worth","8":"tag-fort-worth","9":"tag-fort-worth-headlines","10":"tag-fort-worth-news"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/192562","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=192562"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/192562\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/192563"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=192562"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=192562"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=192562"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}