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<\/a>The SPC has most of the area in a slight risk (2\/5) for severe weather on Saturday, especially for hail and later in the day. (NOAA SPC)<\/p>\nBased on what I can tell from forecast models and the NWS discussions, the primary driver for the slight risk is potential for isolated large hail. Storms could still carry lightning obviously or isolated strong wind gusts, but from a \u201csevere\u201d perspective, hail seems to be driving the risk. That said, we do not expect hail all over the city\u2026I just want to make that clear. Any large hail would probably be confined to a few neighborhoods only in the strongest storms.<\/p>\n
Use the slider on the image above to compare the 12-3 PM European model precipitation forecast with the 3 PM HRRR model radar forecast. (Pivotal Weather)<\/p>\n
But what about timing? Well, the European model has insisted for days now that a squall line of storms would push through Houston in the afternoon hours. Now that we\u2019re in range of higher resolution model guidance, the picture is a lot murkier. Most high-res models keep most of the area storm free during the daylight hours Saturday. You can compared the Euro to the HRRR model above. However, by later Saturday evening, that may be when you\u2019ve got the chance for stronger storms in a few spots, especially north and west of Houston. So there\u2019s some inherent uncertainty tomorrow, but for the most part I don\u2019t think you\u2019ll have too many issues in the morning or early afternoon. Storm chances will perk up in the later afternoon and evening hours, especially north and west of Houston I think. We\u2019ll update you on this tomorrow morning.<\/p>\n
For Sunday, right now I would say scattered thunderstorms throughout the day, with perhaps a focus north of I-10 in the first half of the day and south of I-10 in the second half of the day. Locally strong storms are possible, and one or two could put down some significant rainfall in a short amount of time, so be mindful of street flooding in areas that see the most persistent storms Sunday. <\/p>\n
Rodeo forecast<\/p>\n
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If you\u2019re headed to the Rodeo this weekend, you\u2019ve got few concerns tonight for Lizzo. It looks good. There will be that chance of a thunderstorm on Saturday, especially upon exiting Dwight Yoakam. Just be aware of the potential, but as noted above, storms will at least be possible. Temps will be in the low to mid-70s each evening. Sunday may be the highest odds of showers and thunderstorms, along with locally heavy rain. Even if it isn\u2019t raining when you leave, if you\u2019re headed to see Forrest Frank, you\u2019ll want the raincoat and a little extra time to get to and from NRG Stadium just in case. Temps should be in the mid to upper-70s.<\/p>\n
Early next week<\/p>\n
Monday and Tuesday look sufficiently quiet right now with nothing worse than a rogue shower. Highs will be in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s and low-70s. <\/p>\n
Wednesday<\/p>\n
After those quieter days Monday and Tuesday, it does look like we get a quick but potent storm system in the area on Wednesday. It\u2019s too soon to speak with much confidence about this system or its potential, but early indications are that there will be at least some strong to perhaps severe storms, especially the first half of Wednesday, especially north of I-10. The SPC has highlighted the north side of the city in Wednesday\u2019s severe weather risk, which is akin to saying a slight risk (2\/5) this far out.<\/p>\n