{"id":204742,"date":"2026-03-14T17:41:39","date_gmt":"2026-03-14T17:41:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/204742\/"},"modified":"2026-03-14T17:41:39","modified_gmt":"2026-03-14T17:41:39","slug":"top-election-watcher-shifts-rep-tony-gonzales-district-in-democrats-direction-after-he-leaves-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/204742\/","title":{"rendered":"Top election watcher shifts Rep. Tony Gonzales’ district in Democrats’ direction after he leaves race"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"DemocraticDemocratic national operatives are reportedly impressed with the primary performance of Katy Padilla Stout. Credit: Courtesy Photo \/ Katy Padilla Stout for Congress<\/p>\n

In yet another sign that U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales\u2019 political implosion has turned the race for Texas\u2019 23rd District on its head, respected election watcher the Cook Political Report has shifted its rating<\/a> on the once bright-red district in the Democrats\u2019 direction.<\/p>\n

Cook on Thursday notched the 23rd\u2019s rating from \u201cSolid Republican\u201d to \u201cLikely Republican\u201d based on baggage surrounding the race\u2019s new Republican nominee, Brandon Herrera, a so-called \u201cgunfluencer\u201d whose \u201clong history of incendiary comments that could alienate enough independents and Republicans to put this seat in play.\u201d<\/p>\n

Gonzales was set for a runoff with Herrera, a 30-year-old YouTuber and firearms manufacturer, until the three-term congressman ended his reelection campaign<\/a> over revelations he\u2019d had an affair with a staffer who later died by setting herself on fire. <\/p>\n

While the scandal made Gonzales political kryptonite, Herrera comes with problems of his own, according to Cook. He\u2019s used his YouTube platform to make jokes about the Holocaust and veterans\u2019 suicides, and he bragged in one clip about adding Mein Kampf for his book collection. For the record, Herrera told the New York Times<\/a> owning the book doesn\u2019t mean he shares Hitler\u2019s views.<\/p>\n

While Trump carried the 23rd \u2014 a massive border district that stretches from San Antonio to El Paso \u2014 by 15 points in 2024, Cook points out that trends aren\u2019t working in the GOP\u2019s favor \u2014\u00a0even with Herrera\u2019s edgelord persona factored out. <\/p>\n

First, Dems\u2019 primary turnout doubled from two years ago, rising to 59,000 voters from 28,000. That\u2019s also well above the 48,000 voters who showed up for the Republican runoff. Second, Latinos represent 55% of the district\u2019s citizen, voting-age population, and numerous polls show an anti-Trump backlash boiling over in that demographic.<\/p>\n

National Democratic operatives are also impressed by the showing of their party\u2019s candidate, Katy Padilla Stout, a former teacher who now works as an attorney for foster kids, according to Cook\u2019s analysis. She won her primary outright, pulling far ahead of three other contenders.<\/p>\n

Still, it remains to be seen how much additional funding Padilla Stout can pull in \u2014\u00a0and whether that will be enough to build recognition with voters across the sprawling district. As of early February, her war chest stood at less than $50,000, according to Cook.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe combination of a polarizing Republican nominee and an energized Democratic electorate is enough to shift this district out of the Solid Republican column,\u201d wrote Erin Covey, Cook\u2019s U.S. House editor. \u201cBut it\u2019s unclear yet if this will become a truly competitive race. That, in large part, depends on Padilla Stout\u2019s ability to persuade enough Republicans turned off by Herrera\u2019s antics to vote for a Democrat in November.\u201d<\/p>\n

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