The Long-Run Payoff of Universal ESAs in Texas<\/a>, Dr. Martin Lueken and Dr. Michael McShane estimate what a universal Education Savings Account (ESA) program could mean not just for today\u2019s students\u00a0\u2014\u00a0but for Texas\u2019 long-term economic and social well-being.\u00a0<\/p>\nTheir conclusion: even modest increases in educational attainment could yield substantial long-term benefits for the state.\u00a0<\/p>\n
What We Know About\u00a0Educational\u00a0Choice and Attainment\u00a0<\/p>\n
While test score debates often dominate headlines, a growing body of research examines long-term outcomes like:\u00a0<\/p>\n
High school graduation\u00a0<\/p>\n
College enrollment\u00a0<\/p>\n
College completion\u00a0<\/p>\n
Across nine rigorous studies of private school choice programs\u00a0\u2014\u00a0including\u00a0those\u00a0in Florida, Ohio, Indiana, and Wisconsin\u00a0\u2014\u00a0six\u00a0studies\u00a0find positive effects on attainment for participating students.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The effects range from:\u00a0<\/p>\n
4\u00a0to 15 percentage point increases in college enrollment\u00a0<\/p>\n
1 to 9 percentage point increases in college graduation\u00a0<\/p>\n
Up to 12 percentage point increases in high school graduation\u00a0<\/p>\n
Importantly, recent research also suggests competitive effects: public school students exposed to choice programs may also see gains in college enrollment and graduation.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Attainment matters because it is strongly associated with lifetime earnings, tax contributions, health, and reduced crime.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The Value of a Diploma\u00a0<\/p>\n
Economists have put real numbers behind these outcomes.\u00a0<\/p>\n
High school graduates earn\u00a0substantially more\u00a0over their lifetimes than non-graduates, pay more in taxes, live longer and healthier lives, and are less likely to be incarcerated. When researchers Patrick Wolf and Michael McShane combined these private and public benefits, they estimated that each\u00a0additional\u00a0high school graduate generates roughly:\u00a0<\/p>\n
$716,000\u00a0(2025 USD)\u00a0per\u00a0additional\u00a0graduate\u00a0in total lifetime value\u00a0<\/p>\n
This conservative figure does not even\u00a0take into account\u00a0the students who go to college.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Modeling a Universal ESA in Texas\u00a0<\/p>\n
Lueken and McShane model two realistic participation scenarios for Texas:\u00a0<\/p>\n
A\u00a01.6% take-up rate, aligned with a\u00a0$1 billion\u00a0funding cap (about 90,000 students)\u00a0<\/p>\n
A\u00a05% take-up rate,\u00a0closer to\u00a0participation levels seen\u00a0in\u00a0other states\u2019\u00a0universal programs\u00a0that have been around for several years\u00a0<\/p>\n
They then estimate how even small increases in high school graduation rates would translate into long-term benefits.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The results are significant. Depending on participation levels and graduation gains, the projected long-term impact of a universal ESA in Texas ranges from:\u00a0<\/p>\n
$1.3\u00a0billion\u00a0to\u00a0$19.8\u00a0billion\u00a0in\u00a0steady state.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cSteady state\u201d refers to the\u00a0benefit once the program has matured \u2014 when\u00a0participating\u00a0students span the full K\u201312 pipeline.\u00a0<\/p>\n
And again, this\u00a0projection\u00a0is\u00a0conservative because we know that\u00a0school\u00a0choice programs are not just associated with higher high school graduation rates but also college enrollment and graduation.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Broader\u00a0Public School\u00a0System Effects\u00a0<\/p>\n
The analysis also considers potential benefits for students who\u00a0remain\u00a0in public schools. Drawing on recent research from Ohio, the authors model small increases in college enrollment and graduation among public school students exposed to competition.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Because Texas\u2019 public school system serves hundreds of thousands of students each year, even modest percentage gains could translate into\u00a0very large\u00a0economic returns over time.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In short, the benefits of choice may extend beyond direct participants.\u00a0<\/p>\n
An Investment\u00a0in the Future\u00a0<\/p>\n
Education policy is often debated in terms of immediate costs. This analysis invites Texas policymakers to consider long-term value.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The logic of\u00a0McShane and Lueken\u2019s\u00a0brief is straightforward:\u00a0<\/p>\n
Higher educational attainment leads to better life outcomes.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Private school choice programs are associated with increases in attainment.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Therefore, a universal ESA is likely to generate long-term social and economic benefits.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Of course, forecasting the future involves uncertainty.\u00a0That\u2019s\u00a0why the authors present ranges and model multiple scenarios. But by focusing on steady-state\u00a0impacts and conservative assumptions, they provide a careful estimate of what is possible.\u00a0<\/p>\n
If the goal is higher earnings, greater tax contributions without raising tax rates, longer and healthier lives, and lower crime, increasing educational attainment is one of the most powerful tools available.\u00a0<\/p>\n
A universal ESA\u00a0is\u00a0a\u00a0powerful\u00a0investment\u00a0in just those\u00a0goals.<\/p>\n
Read the full report here.<\/a> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Education policy debates often focus on short-term questions: How much does a program cost? What happened to test…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":221375,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[27,77766,29,28,86193],"class_list":["post-221374","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-texas","tag-texas","tag-texas-esa","tag-texas-headlines","tag-texas-news","tag-universal-choice"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/221374","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=221374"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/221374\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/221375"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=221374"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=221374"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=221374"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}