{"id":238809,"date":"2026-04-07T14:27:07","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T14:27:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/238809\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T14:27:07","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T14:27:07","slug":"el-nino-could-develop-later-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/238809\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o could develop later this year"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Shelby Shank
Field Editor<\/p>\n

A shift in weather patterns could take shape later this year as La Ni\u00f1a weakens and El Ni\u00f1o develops.<\/p>\n

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported below-average sea surface temperatures lingering across the east-central equatorial Pacific through February. Rising subsurface ocean temperatures and weakening trade winds are now signaling a transition toward El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

The CPC predicts a 62% chance El Ni\u00f1o will form between June and August and last through the end of the year. However, the timing and intensity are still uncertain, and some early predictions may be overstated.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not a slam dunk, but there is a decent amount of confidence that we\u2019ll see an El Ni\u00f1o signal,\u201d Tom Bradshaw, meteorologist-in-charge at the National Weather Service told the Texas Farm Bureau Radio Network<\/a>. \u201cWhat becomes more difficult is determining what those impacts actually look like.\u201d<\/p>\n

The transition to El Ni\u00f1o could bring challenges to farmers. A quick shift from La Ni\u00f1a to El Ni\u00f1o can lead to early season dryness in growing regions like the Midwest and Plains.<\/p>\n

In Texas, La Ni\u00f1a conditions will likely continue into spring and bring temperature swings and uneven rainfall. Moisture is expected to start east of I-35 and slowly move west as the season progresses.<\/p>\n

\u201cHow we start the year is not likely how we\u2019ll finish it,\u201d Matt Makens, meteorologist for CattleFax, told the Texas Farm Bureau Radio Network. \u201cWe\u2019ll see that moisture patten slowly shift across the state as we move into the summer months.\u201d<\/p>\n

But El Ni\u00f1o doesn\u2019t guarantee rain for everyone. Parts of West Texas could remain dry due to other weather factors.<\/p>\n

\u201cJust because you hear El Ni\u00f1o doesn\u2019t mean water for everybody,\u201d Makens said. \u201cThe farther west you go, the higher the chance you may stay dry.\u201d<\/p>\n

Questions remain about whether increased rainfall could help recharge Texas\u2019 depleted aquifers. The Ogallala Aquifer in the High Plains and the Edwards Aquifer across Central Texas and the Hill Country have both seen declining water levels in recent years.<\/p>\n

While rainfall could offer some relief, experts say recovery will take time.<\/p>\n

\u201cEl Ni\u00f1o would certainly help the odds of that, but these aquifers are so dry. Lake levels are poor, too. It would take back-to-back, multiple years of this kind of pattern to really have a lasting effect,\u201d Makens said. \u201cWe can\u2019t say it\u2019s going to be a three-year El Ni\u00f1o, but just having it reemerge will help. We need years\u2019 worth of water to catch up, and we\u2019re not getting the river levels up either. It\u2019s a twofold issue, but at least El Ni\u00f1o helps our odds.\u201d<\/p>\n

Farmers are concerned about the potential strength of this El Ni\u00f1o, given its impact on rainfall, drought risk and crop yields.<\/p>\n

Spring rainfall is expected to be near normal but may not provide much relief, according to meteorologists.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf the soil moisture is quite dry, we may see temperatures that are substantially warmer than normal. That\u2019s why what happens this spring is so important for how the summer sets up,\u201d Bradshaw said. \u201cAs we move into late spring and summer, there\u2019s less correlation between El Ni\u00f1o and what we actually see. That makes it harder to pin down exactly how conditions will play out.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"By Shelby ShankField Editor A shift in weather patterns could take shape later this year as La Ni\u00f1a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":238810,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[91777,8272,27,29,28,172],"class_list":{"0":"post-238809","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-texas","8":"tag-el-nino","9":"tag-la-nina","10":"tag-texas","11":"tag-texas-headlines","12":"tag-texas-news","13":"tag-weather"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/238809","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=238809"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/238809\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/238810"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=238809"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=238809"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=238809"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}