<\/p>\n
This weather satellite photo of the Caribbean Sea shows a clearly defined eye in the center of an organized Hurricane Melissa south of Jamaica last October. Melissa was the only major hurricane to make landfall during the 2025 season, reaching Jamaica as a Category 5 in late October.<\/p>\n
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites\/CIRA and NOAA<\/p>\n
One of the nation\u2019s most widely trusted and highly regarded hurricane season forecasts is predicting slightly below-average activity in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season<\/a>, largely because\u00a0of a developing El Ni\u00f1o in the\u00a0equatorial Pacific, where waters are growing much warmer than normal.<\/p>\n The outlook from the hurricane research team at Colorado State University<\/a>\u00a0is calling for only 13 named storms, including six hurricanes\u00a0\u2014 two of which would be \u201cmajor\u201d or packing maximum sustained wind\u00a0speeds of more than 110 mph. This projection, over the six-month hurricane season that runs from June 1 through Nov. 30,\u00a0would fall short of\u00a0the long-term average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.<\/p>\n The CSU forecast, which has been published every April since 1995, was released Thursday and is the first authoritative hurricane season outlook issued this year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration typically releases its official outlook in late May.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n ACCUWEATHER OUTLOOK: AccuWeather\u2019s 2026 hurricane season forecast is out. Here\u2019s what it means for Texas.<\/a><\/p>\n 1. El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o expected to limit storm activity<\/p>\n The primary reason for the muted outlook is the anticipated development of a moderate to strong El Ni\u00f1o, a\u00a0naturally occurring climate pattern that typically suppresses hurricane formation in the Atlantic.<\/p>\n This diagram from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u00a0shows the typical influence El Ni\u00f1o has on hurricane season.<\/p>\n NOAA<\/p>\n Although El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o is marked by above-normal surface temperatures in the Pacific, the world’s largest ocean, it can increase upper-atmospheric winds over the Caribbean and Atlantic. Those winds create vertical wind shear \u2014 a disruptive force that makes it harder for storms to organize and intensify.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n \u201cWhile the average of our analog seasons is somewhat below normal, the large spread in observed activity \u2026 highlights the high levels of uncertainty,\u201d said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at CSU and lead author of the forecast<\/a>.<\/p>\n The tropical Pacific is currently in a weak La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a phase, which is essentially the opposite of El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o. Researchers expect a rapid transition to El Ni\u00f1o in the coming months, with the strongest effects likely occurring between August and October, the peak of hurricane season.<\/p>\n 2. Atlantic waters show mixed signals<\/p>\n Sea-surface temperatures across the Atlantic are sending mixed signals.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Waters in the western Atlantic also are warmer than normal<\/a>, which can fuel storm development. However, parts of the eastern Atlantic, where many tropical cyclones originate, remain slightly cooler, and that tends to suppress activity.<\/p>\n This map of the Atlantic basin shows where sea-surface temperatures are above normal (orange and red) and below-normal (blue and green). The western Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, are running warmer than long-term average\u00a0temperatures there.<\/p>\n WeatherBELL<\/p>\n Taken together with the expected El Ni\u00f1o, those competing factors have led researchers to project a season at about 75% of average activity based on historical data from 1991 to 2020.<\/p>\n 3. Early forecasts carry high uncertainty<\/p>\n CSU researchers emphasized that April forecasts are among the least certain issued each year because ocean and atmospheric conditions can shift significantly before the peak of the\u00a0season.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n The team compared 2026 to past seasons such as 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023\u00a0\u2014 years that ranged from below-average to somewhat above-average activity. One of those seasons, 2023, brought\u00a0Tropical Storm Harold<\/a> to the Texas Gulf Coast, where it made landfall.<\/p>\n \u201cIt takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,\u201d\u00a0CSU atmospheric scientist Michael Bell said.<\/p>\n 4. Landfall risk remains on Gulf Coast<\/p>\n Despite the below-average outlook, the forecast still indicates a 20% chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast, including Texas. The projection is only\u00a0slightly below the historical average of 27%.<\/p>\n PREPARE NOW: Check out the Houston Chronicle\u2019s Hurricane Guide to help you prepare for whatever the season brings Texas.<\/a><\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n The probability for the entire U.S. coastline is 32%, compared with a historical average of 43%.<\/p>\n CSU researchers also noted that El Ni\u00f1o years tend to reduce storm activity in the western Atlantic, where most landfalls occur, further lowering risk compared to La Ni\u00f1a years.<\/p>\n 5. Forecast draws on global models, AI tools<\/p>\n The CSU team used a combination of statistical models and major global forecasting systems, including those from leading international weather agencies.<\/p>\n For the first time, researchers also incorporated a machine learning-based climate model<\/a> known as the Ai2 Climate Emulator, part of a growing effort to use artificial intelligence in seasonal forecasting.<\/p>\n AI AND FLOODING: Will AI help us solve Houston\u2019s flooding issues? Texas A&M researchers hope to find out<\/a><\/p>\n While one statistical model suggested slightly above-average activity, the broader set of models, including the new AI system, pointed toward a quieter season overall.<\/p>\n 6. Residents urged to be prepared, vigilant<\/p>\n Even in a quieter year, Gulf Coast residents are urged not to let their guard down. A single storm can define a season for coastal communities, particularly in Southeast Texas, where rapid intensification and flooding remain persistent risks.<\/p>\n ARE YOU READY?: Here’s what to put in a hurricane emergency kit<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n