Hot green tea at the desk tonight, which either means I\u2019m being responsible or the Coffee Almond Toffee finally caught up with me. Either way, the Dallas Mavericks (25-55) close out their last road game of the season Friday against the San Antonio Spurs (61-19), a team that has locked into the two-seed and is preparing for a deep playoff run. This is the fourth and final meeting between these clubs, and the previous three weren\u2019t close \u2014 San Antonio won all of them by double digits. Meanwhile, Wednesday night in Phoenix, Jason Kidd pulled his starters with 4:37 left in a five-point game and closed with a lineup of Poulakidas, Tyler Smith, Cisse, Dwight Powell, and AJ Johnson. The tank, long an open secret, is now officially on the record.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s scan the lines in search of value.<\/p>\n
\ud83c\udfc0 Fixture: Dallas Mavericks (25-55) @ San Antonio Spurs (61-19) \ud83d\udccd Frost Bank Center \u2014 San Antonio, TX \ud83d\udd56 7:00 PM CST, Friday, April 10, 2026 \ud83d\udcfa KFAA Channel 29 \/ MavsTV \/ NBA League Pass<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udcca DraftKings Snapshot (as of 12:15 AM CST) Spread: SAS -17.5 (-110) | DAL +17.5 (-110) Total: 236.5 (O -110 \/ U -110) Moneyline: SAS -1600 | DAL +900<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udcc9 Game Side Lean: San Antonio -17.5<\/p>\n
Kidd showed his hand Wednesday. With the lottery standings razor-thin \u2014 Dallas tied with Memphis for sixth-best odds, one game behind New Orleans \u2014 every loss matters, and Kidd has stopped pretending otherwise. The Spurs, even without Wembanyama (questionable with a rib contusion), are 61-19 and playing with playoff intensity. Stephon Castle is also questionable with a left foot issue, but San Antonio has depth to absorb that. Dallas is showing up with a depleted roster, a coaching staff that just publicly waved the white flag, and approximately zero motivation to cover a number. Lay the points.<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udd2e Total Lean: Under 236.5<\/p>\n
When a team is actively not trying to win, they tend to not score very much either. Dallas has already demonstrated a willingness to deploy lineups that couldn\u2019t beat a good G League squad, and San Antonio \u2014 even in playoff prep mode \u2014 isn\u2019t going to go out of its way to run up the score. The Spurs will control pace, manage their rotation with one eye on the postseason, and this game settles into something quiet and ugly. Under is the play.<\/p>\n
\ud83c\udfaf Player Props We Like<\/p>\n
De\u2019Aaron Fox Over 14.5 Points (-122) If Castle sits with the foot soreness, Fox becomes San Antonio\u2019s unquestioned offensive engine without a secondary playmaker to share the load. Even with Castle available, Fox has been the heartbeat of this Spurs offense all season \u2014 and Dallas\u2019s backcourt defense, never a strength, has been further gutted by attrition. Against a team that just benched its starters in a close game to chase lottery odds, Fox should be operating in cruise control by the third quarter. The number is modest for a player of his caliber in this spot.<\/p>\n
Cooper Flagg Over 24.5 Points (-113) Flagg is playing for something real right now \u2014 the Rookie of the Year award, a closing argument after a 51-point performance against Orlando that should have settled the debate but apparently hasn\u2019t. He\u2019s in that mode where every game feels like a statement, and statement games against bad defenses tend to produce numbers. San Antonio will be focused on their own playoff preparation, not on stopping a rookie on a bad team. Flagg gets his. This is his season to put an exclamation point on.<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udca1 Summary: San Antonio -17.5 against a team that stopped trying Wednesday night. Under 236.5 for a game that figures to be controlled and quiet. Fox feasting with Castle potentially out, Flagg closing his ROY case one bucket at a time. Four picks, one cup of green tea. Go Lottery Odds Go.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Hot green tea at the desk tonight, which either means I\u2019m being responsible or the Coffee Almond Toffee…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":243786,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[11326,102,104,103,2663,11325],"class_list":{"0":"post-243785","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-dallas","8":"tag-betting-and-daily-fantasy","9":"tag-dallas","10":"tag-dallas-headlines","11":"tag-dallas-news","12":"tag-mavericks-game-coverage","13":"tag-mavericks-odds"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/243785","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=243785"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/243785\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/243786"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=243785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=243785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=243785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}