![\"spc](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/spc-categorical-outlook-1630z-april-12-to-12z-april-13.webp.webp\")
SPC Categorical Outlook valid 16:30 UTC on April 12 to 12:00 UTC on April 13, 2026. Credit: NOAA\/SPC<\/p>\nThe Storm Prediction Center (SPC) said ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms across central and east Texas are complicating the forecast, with mesoscale factors expected to play a significant role in storm development later today.<\/p>\n
Forecasters expect redevelopment along the southern and western edge of ongoing storms from southeast and south-central Texas into southwest Texas later this afternoon and evening.<\/p>\n
The agency said moist advection, modest daytime heating, and limited low-level convergence will support redevelopment. Moderate to strong instability and moderate vertical shear could support supercells if storms remain discrete, with large hail possible early in the convective cycle.<\/p>\n
Storms may cluster over time, which could limit the persistence and coverage of robust rotating updrafts, but damaging wind gusts may still occur, especially if bowing segments develop.<\/p>\n
SPC Categorical Outlook valid 16:30 UTC on April 12 to 12:00 UTC on April 13, 2026. Credit: NOAA\/SPC<\/p>\n
A broader Marginal Risk also remains in place farther west across parts of west and southwest Texas near the dryline.<\/p>\n
The SPC said the environment there is conditionally supportive of supercells capable of all severe hazards, with mixed-layer CAPE of 1 500\u20132 000 J\/kg and 30\u201340 kt of deep-layer shear. However, mid-level height rises, subsidence, and modest convective inhibition are expected to limit storm initiation across much of that corridor.<\/p>\n
![\"radar](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/radar-texas-centered-1630-utc-april-12-2026-1024x758.webp.webp\")
Radar image valid 16:30 UTC on April 12, 2026. Credit: NWS, The Watchers<\/p>\n
The Day 2 outlook, valid from 12:00 UTC on April 13 to 12:00 UTC on April 14, keeps parts of the southern Plains under a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms, with the Texas component focused from the western and central parts of the state toward the Big Bend.<\/p>\n
A conditional supercell environment will exist along and east of the dryline from western and central Oklahoma southwestward toward the Big Bend on Monday afternoon and evening.<\/p>\n
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SPC Categorical Outlook valid 12:00 UTC on April 13 to 12:00 UTC on April 14, 2026. Credit: NOAA\/SPC<\/p>\n
Large-scale ascent will remain limited across the southern Plains on Monday because stronger height falls will stay displaced farther north. As a result, capping is expected to suppress widespread thunderstorm development for much of the day despite a strongly unstable air mass.<\/p>\n
Strong daytime heating along the dryline will promote boundary-layer mixing, while confluence in the low-level flow and a modest strengthening low-level jet late in the day may be sufficient for a couple of storms to form.<\/p>\n
Storm coverage is expected to remain isolated, but if a storm can develop, the environment would support supercells capable of producing large hail, strong wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado.<\/p>\n
While Monday\u2019s severe risk in Texas remains conditional, the persistence of dryline-related instability means parts of western and central Texas could face another round of late-day severe weather concerns after today\u2019s more mesoscale-driven setup farther east and south.<\/p>\n
References:<\/p>\n
1 Day 1 Convective Outlook \u2013 NWS\/SPC<\/a> \u2013 Issued at 16:29 UTC on April 12, 2026<\/p>\n