Must-read items about elections and politics.<\/p>\n
On Sunday, Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign<\/a> for California governor in the face of multiple allegations of sexual misconduct. Swalwell had been polling ahead<\/a> of other Democratic contenders in California\u2019s crowded top-two primary for governor. But on Friday, the San Francisco Chronicle reported<\/a> that a woman who had worked for Swalwell alleged that he had sexually assaulted her. His standing quickly collapsed after that. CNN reported<\/a> allegations against Swalwell by the same former staffer and three other women, some of Swalwell\u2019s top campaign aides quit<\/a>, and many of his endorsers withdrew their support and called for him to drop out<\/a>. The U.S. House of Representatives is now considering expelling Swalwell<\/a> and the state of New York has opened an investigation<\/a> into him over sexual assault allegations.<\/p>\n With House Republicans pushing a measure to expel Swalwell, House Democrats are also moving to force a vote<\/a> to expel Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas. Gonzales faces a sexual misconduct investigation by the House Ethics Committee, and he recently abandoned his reelection bid<\/a> in the wake of reports about explicit texts he had sent to an aide who later committed suicide. Two other scandal-tarred members from Florida, Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick and GOP Rep. Cory Mills, could also face expulsion votes.<\/p>\n In international election news, Prime Minister Viktor Orb\u00e1n\u2019s right-wing, nationalist Fidesz Party lost its majority<\/a> in Hungary\u2019s parliamentary election on Sunday. The Tisza Party, a center-right and pro-European group led by P\u00e9ter Magyar, decisively won the election. The contest was seen as a referendum on Hungary\u2019s future and Orb\u00e1n\u2019s authoritarian approach during his 16 years as his nation\u2019s leader. The final seat count has not been determined, but Tisza may have garnered two-thirds of all seats, which would allow it to amend the national constitution<\/a>.<\/p>\n Decision Desk HQ is excited to announce the release of Votes<\/a>, our new election data portal!<\/p>\n Dive into the world of election data with DDHQ Votes:<\/p>\n Up-to-date polling on the key issues and races<\/p>\n Track how prediction markets are moving<\/p>\n 25 years of election results at your fingertips<\/p>\n Track election results as they come in<\/p>\n From local to federal, find every race<\/p>\n Coming Soon: DDHQ Forecast<\/p>\n Click here<\/a> to learn more about Votes and sign up now! This Thursday, you can use votes to follow the results from the special election for New Jersey\u2019s 11th Congressional District<\/a>.<\/p>\n Quick summary:<\/p>\n Longtime Texas politics reporter Patrick Svitek explores Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton\u2019s history of success in runoffs. He won by sizable margins in both 2014 and 2022, and can use some of the same strategies against Sen. John Cornyn in Texas\u2019s May 26 runoff for U.S. Senate.<\/p>\n As Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton looks to defeat Sen. John Cornyn for the Republican nomination in Texas\u2019s U.S. Senate race, Paxton is drawing a lot of inspiration from the last two times he was in a primary runoff.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019ve never won by less than 30 points, and I don\u2019t plan on starting now,\u201d Paxton said in his March 3 primary night speech<\/a> after neither he nor Cornyn won a majority<\/a> to clinch the nomination. \u201cThe victory we\u2019re going to secure in this runoff will be even sweeter than the last ones.\u201d<\/p>\n The first runoff Paxton was referring to was in 2014, when he initially ran for attorney general \u2014 it was an open seat \u2014 and defeated<\/a> state Rep. Dan Branch of Dallas by 27 percentage points. And the second runoff was in 2022, when Paxton sought a third term against Land Commissioner George P. Bush and triumphed by a wider margin<\/a> \u2014 36 points.<\/p>\n Those past runoffs are full of both similarities and differences that could help us better understand the current election.<\/p>\n Texas GOP runoffs tend to feature lower turnout that benefits candidates whom voters see as more conservative, a danger sign to incumbents challenged from their right. But not every runoff is the same, and Cornyn, for example, is hoping for unusually high turnout in this one and a more intense focus on Paxton\u2019s history of scandals.<\/p>\n This is the first time, as a statewide officeholder, that Paxton finished second in a primary \u2014 albeit narrowly \u2014 on his way to a runoff, and it is the first time he did so as a challenger. On primary night, he compared himself to Sen. Ted Cruz, who came in second<\/a> in his first primary for Senate back in 2012 before defeating the establishment favorite<\/a>, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, in a runoff.<\/p>\n Of course, the biggest difference between then and now is the political dominance of President Donald Trump, whose endorsement could scramble all conventional wisdom in an election. He said the morning after the primary that he would make an endorsement \u201csoon\u201d but still has not decided between Cornyn and Paxton.<\/p>\n The prospect of a Trump endorsement has appeared to dim further as Republicans increasingly attack the Democratic nominee, James Talarico, as decisively too liberal for the state, undercutting Cornyn\u2019s argument that he is uniquely positioned to defeat Talarico. Trump said in a social media post on March 22<\/a> that he believed \u201cany human being running against\u201d Talarico \u201cwould win.\u201d<\/p>\n Let\u2019s take a trip down memory lane and revisit those past runoffs that are giving Paxton so much optimism.<\/p>\n In 2014, the attorney general\u2019s office was open for the first time in a dozen years because the incumbent, Greg Abbott, was running for governor. The Republican primary drew three candidates: Paxton, a state senator from McKinney; Dan Branch, a state representative from Dallas; and Barry Smitherman, chairman of the Texas Railroad Commission, which regulates the state\u2019s oil and gas industry (and no longer oversees railroads<\/a>).<\/p>\n Paxton was considered a serious candidate out of the gate. He was a star of the ascendant tea party movement and vowed to build on Abbott\u2019s legacy of filing copious lawsuits against the federal government. Paxton\u2019s campaign also emphasized a quasi-endorsement from Cruz, who was an increasingly hot commodity after his own runoff upset two years earlier.<\/p>\n Cruz offered praise for Paxton during a January speech in North Texas before the primary \u2014 remarks that Cruz\u2019s aides said were not an endorsement but nonetheless found their way into multiple Paxton ads. One spot<\/a> replayed Cruz\u2019s remarks after a narrator said, \u201cIn the race for attorney general, there\u2019s only one constitutional conservative like Ted Cruz.\u201d<\/p>\n Paxton finished first<\/a> in the primary, 11 points ahead of Branch.<\/p>\n About two months into the runoff, Paxton got his first taste of legal trouble amid a hotly contested race. The Texas State Securities Board issued a reprimand of Paxton<\/a> and fined him $1,000 for soliciting investment clients two years earlier without registering with the state. Paxton waived his right to appeal, and his campaign said it was \u201cpleased\u201d to reach a resolution.<\/p>\n Branch ran an ad<\/a> exclusively about the incident, extensively excerpting a local TV segment on it and asking whether Texans could \u201ctrust\u201d Paxton to be the state\u2019s top lawyer. Paxton\u2019s commercials were more focused on painting an ideological contrast, criticizing Branch as a \u201cliberal Republican\u201d and reiterating Cruz\u2019s preference for Paxton.<\/p>\n Paxton cruised past<\/a> Branch in the runoff, 63% to 37% \u2014 just short of the 30-point margin Paxton claims to have always won by in runoffs.<\/p>\n Paxton had not only overcome the ethics controversy but also Branch\u2019s fundraising advantage. Branch reported raising $2.8 million on a pre-runoff report; Paxton raised $1.9 million. Branch disclosed spending $3.5 million; Paxton spent $2.3 million.<\/p>\n Paxton won all but a handful of counties. The notable exceptions were Dallas County, Branch\u2019s home base, which he narrowly carried, and bright-blue Travis County, home to Austin, which Branch won by 5 points.<\/p>\n The turnout rate in the primary was 9.4% of all registered voters. It dropped to 5.4% in the runoff.<\/p>\n Paxton dodged any primary opposition<\/a> in 2018, but four years later, his personal scandals had taken enough of a toll that three serious challengers stepped forward. They were Bush, Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman, and Rep. Louie Gohmert.<\/p>\n The race initially centered on whether Bush, the last remaining member of his famous family in elected office, could refashion himself as a Trump-era Republican and maybe even get Trump\u2019s endorsement. But Trump ended the speculation within weeks of Bush\u2019s launch, endorsing Paxton<\/a> in July 2021.<\/p>\n Gohmert made a late entrance as a far-right alternative to Paxton, but it was Guzman who gained traction toward the end, backed by big donations from the tort reform lobby. Paxton\u2019s campaign launched an 11th-hour ad blitz<\/a> against Guzman \u2014 less than a week before the primary \u2014 and successfully boxed her out, effectively picking Bush as a runoff opponent.<\/p>\n In the primary<\/a>, Paxton got 43% of the vote, while Bush ran 20 points behind him. Guzman and Gohmert finished with about 18% and 17%, respectively.<\/p>\n Bush was exactly who Paxton\u2019s campaign wanted. The contrast, to them, could not have been clearer: a Trump-endorsed conservative versus a challenger who embodied the last vestiges of the Texas GOP old guard. \u201cHelp me end the Bush dynasty,\u201d Paxton said from the outset of the runoff.<\/p>\n The runoff opened with hype that Bush would savage Paxton over his legal problems. Paxton remained under indictment for state securities fraud charges and the FBI was reportedly investigating Paxton over claims by former aides that he abused his power to help a donor.<\/p>\n While some of Bush\u2019s messaging took aim at Paxton, Bush had to balance it against his efforts to continue introducing himself to a skeptical GOP base. An April 2022 poll<\/a> from the University of Texas found that 26% of Texas GOP voters had an unfavorable view of Bush, while just 7% said the same of Paxton.<\/p>\n The runoff was ultimately not that competitive<\/a>. With minimal campaigning, Paxton crushed Bush, 68%-32%.<\/p>\n Paxton won just about every county. Travis County was again an outlier, giving Bush its vote by 7 points.<\/p>\n Again, Paxton romped despite being at a financial disadvantage. He raised $2 million on a pre-runoff report filed with the Texas Ethics Commission, while Bush collected $2.3 million and also spent a little more than Paxton did.<\/p>\n The turnout dropoff was also similar to what happened in 2014. The turnout rate in the primary was 11.2% of registered voters, while it slumped to 5.4% in the runoff.<\/p>\n The 2014 and 2022 runoffs show that Paxton can win when turnout is lower than it was in the primary and when he is at a financial disadvantage. But they also carry some deeper lessons that remain relevant today.<\/p>\n For starters, Paxton understands the power of high-profile endorsers who can help voters look past his vulnerabilities. It was Cruz in 2014 and Trump in 2022 \u2014 and Trump again this time, if Paxton has his way. (Interestingly, Cruz has kept more distance from Paxton in recent years, declining to get involved in his 2022 runoff as well as the current one.)<\/p>\n Paxton and his advisers also recognize the importance of having a runoff opponent who provides a strong contrast. They showed that in 2022 when they schemed to ensure Bush, not Guzman, advanced to the runoff. They showed it again in this year\u2019s primary, when they unleashed a wave of negative ads against Rep. Wesley Hunt as it looked like he had a chance to make a runoff. Hunt, who ultimately finished a distant third, would have been a more complicated rival to face in a runoff given his pro-Trump credentials.<\/p>\n One big bet that Cornyn has made in the current race is that the Texas Republican primary runoff electorate has yet to see a well-funded advertising blitz highlighting all of Paxton\u2019s scandals. \u201cJudgment day is coming,\u201d Cornyn said on primary night<\/a>.<\/p>\n In a way, Cornyn is right. Paxton\u2019s scandals had barely begun in the 2014 runoff, with the State Securities Board reprimand amounting to a slap on the wrist. And while Paxton\u2019s problems had mounted by the time he faced Bush in 2022, Bush struggled to capitalize on them because he was a flawed messenger \u2014 disliked by 1 in 4 Republican voters \u2014 and therefore had to focus simultaneously on making a positive case for himself.<\/p>\n In other elections, such as the general elections after those runoffs, Paxton\u2019s opponents were either too underfunded or unknown \u2014 or both \u2014 to fully execute the kind of all-out offensive that Cornyn has been promising. Only in 2018, amid a Democratic wave, did Paxton have a close general election result, winning 51%-47%.<\/p>\n The flip side, of course, is that Cornyn has already had nearly a year \u2014 and tens of millions of dollars at his disposal \u2014 to turn Paxton\u2019s scandals into a political death sentence. Cornyn\u2019s ads attacking Paxton over alleged infidelity were enough to prompt Paxton to counter with positive commercials featuring his daughter<\/a>. But otherwise, Paxton\u2019s standing with the GOP has proven durable. In University of Texas polling, the percentage of Republican voters who viewed him unfavorably actually decreased from December 2025<\/a> to February 2026<\/a>, dipping from 22% to 18%.<\/p>\n Cornyn is also banking on higher turnout than usual in the runoff, boosted by the presence of other primaries that are in overtime. Other statewide primaries are in runoffs, which also happened in 2014 and 2022, but the key difference could be the quantity of congressional primary runoffs \u2014 nine on the Republican side. (The number was set to be even higher \u2014 11 \u2014 before Rep. Tony Gonzales of San Antonio bowed out of his runoff after admitting to an extramarital affair and pastor Ryan Binkley conceded his runoff for an open seat in the Dallas area.)<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s simply just too much at stake for Texas voters to stay home, and I don\u2019t expect them to stay home,\u201d Cornyn said on primary night. \u201cI expect a robust turnout. We\u2019ll certainly be encouraging that.\u201d<\/p>\n ***<\/p>\n Patrick Svitek is a political reporter who has covered Texas politics extensively. He will soon begin working at CNN; previously, he worked at The Washington Post. Before that, he spent nine years at The Texas Tribune, most recently serving as its primary political correspondent. Before that, he was a reporter in the Houston Chronicle\u2019s Austin bureau.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/272cfa08-9745-4473-bcd8-af0386052eed_5563.png\" "\\"\\"")
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