Houston \u2013 New research from Rice University is raising new concerns about flood risk across Houston, suggesting some neighborhoods long considered safe may still be vulnerable.<\/p>\n
The study comes 10 years after the Tax Day Flood, a storm researchers say is often overshadowed by Hurricane Harvey, but remains one of the most dangerous scenarios for the region.<\/p>\n
Researchers at Rice\u2019s Center for Coastal Futures and Adaptive Resilience say the Tax Day flood is especially concerning because of how quickly it developed.<\/p>\n
\u201cHouston really should take possible storms as seriously as probable storms,\u201d said co-director Dominic Boyer.<\/p>\n
Unlike hurricanes, which come with days of warning, the Tax Day storm dumped nearly two feet of rain overnight in parts of the region, catching many off guard.<\/p>\n
Researchers say that kind of fast-moving storm could be even more dangerous today.<\/p>\n
What the new maps show<\/p>\n
Using advanced modeling, researchers simulated what would happen if a Tax Day-level storm hit different parts of Houston today.<\/p>\n
They found that shifting the storm just miles could dramatically increase the number of homes impacted.<\/p>\n
In one example, about 3,600 homes would have flooded in a Clear Creek scenario\u2014but if the storm\u2019s center shifted, that number jumps to more than 13,000.<\/p>\n
In denser areas like Hunting Bayou, nearly half of homes in the watershed could see flooding.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis could happen overnight without a whole lot of warning,\u201d said co-director Jim Elliott.<\/p>\n
A \u201cdangerous illusion\u201d about flood risk<\/p>\n
Researchers say one of the biggest concerns is a widespread misunderstanding about who is at risk.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur data shows a massive blind spot. 92% of at-risk homes do not have flood insurance coverage,\u201d said researcher Yilei Yu. \u201cIt\u2019s a very dangerous illusion.\u201d<\/p>\n
Many homeowners rely on FEMA flood maps, but experts warn those maps don\u2019t tell the full story.<\/p>\n
\u201cFloodwaters are not going to respect the boundaries,\u201d Elliott said. \u201cThey\u2019re going to extend beyond.\u201d<\/p>\n
In fact, during Hurricane Harvey, about 75% of flooded homes were outside designated flood zones.<\/p>\n
A Meyerland family\u2019s reality<\/p>\n
For one Meyerland family, that risk became reality.<\/p>\n
Michael and Freda Wadler say their home had never flooded when they bought it 30 years ago.<\/p>\n
Then, in less than a decade, it flooded three times, during the Memorial Day flood, the Tax Day flood, and Hurricane Harvey.<\/p>\n
\u201cI don\u2019t know if anybody\u2019s really safe in Houston, you never know,\u201d Michael Wadler said.<\/p>\n
Living with the anxiety of flood season<\/p>\n
The couple says flood season used to bring constant stress\u2014not just for them, but for their family.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou don\u2019t realize the post-traumatic stress that you\u2019ve got,\u201d Wadler said. \u201cIt was always nerve-racking.\u201d<\/p>\n
Even their children would call and warn them when storms were approaching.<\/p>\n
Now, their home is being elevated six feet above ground with the help of a FEMA grant.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt feels like a miracle. It\u2019s long overdue,\u201d Wadler said.<\/p>\n
The change is already making a difference.<\/p>\n
With more intense storms, rapid development, and aging infrastructure, researchers warn that risk is growing.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve had multiple \u2018500-year\u2019 events in just a few years,\u201d Boyer said. \u201cWe\u2019re moving outside the boundaries of prediction.\u201d<\/p>\n
What homeowners should do<\/p>\n
Researchers urge residents not to rely solely on flood maps, and to take steps to understand their individual risk.<\/p>\n
\u201cDo not rely solely on FEMA flood maps,\u201d Elliott said. \u201cEven if you think you\u2019re outside the floodplain\u2026 think seriously about protection.\u201d<\/p>\n
That includes considering flood insurance and using new tools, like Rice\u2019s interactive maps, to assess potential risk.<\/p>\n