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A top Our Lady of the Lake official said the study is based on outdated information and doesn\u2019t reflect the campus\u2019 current reality. Credit: Michael Karlis<\/p>\nA top Our Lady of the Lake official said the study is based on outdated information and doesn\u2019t reflect the campus\u2019 current reality. Credit: Michael Karlis<\/p>\n
Three San Antonio universities face elevated risk of being forced to merge or shut down as a perfect storm of economic problems gathers over the world of higher education, according to a new study.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Our Lady of the Lake University (OLLU), the University of the Incarnate Word (UIW) and Texas A&M University-San Antonio (TAMUSA) are highly susceptible to financial and enrollment shocks, Colorado State University political science professor Kyle L. Saunders found in a new working paper. The schools also perform poorly in placing graduates in the evolving labor market, he found.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Neither UIW nor TAMUSA responded to the Current\u2019s request for comment. However, an OLLU official dismissed the study, saying it was built with outdated numbers.<\/p>\n
Saunders\u2019 analysis examines which schools are best and least prepared to weather threats due to the rise of AI, dwindling enrollment and other market conditions. He categorizes those less able to adapt as \u201cHigh Stress.\u201d<\/p>\n
Although the study doesn\u2019t mean the High Stress institutions are at imminent risk of closure, it does suggest that the three Alamo City schools may face a harder time weathering the economic headwinds.<\/p>\n
\u201cHigh Stress is a structural diagnostic, not a closure prediction,\u201d Saunders told the Current. \u201cWhat it really captures is compound pressure, places where several structural conditions are cutting in the same direction at the same time.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trouble in higher ed<\/p>\n
The threat of university closures amid the current turmoil is real.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Earlier this month, Hampshire College, a liberal arts college in Amherst, Massachusetts, revealed it would close its doors after the fall 2026 semester. The school placed special emphasis on self-directed and alternative educational methods.<\/p>\n
Last week, another small New England liberal arts campus, Anna Maria College, announced it would close at the end of the spring 2026 semester after 80 years of operation.<\/p>\n
Indeed, more than 89 colleges and universities have either closed or merged with other institutions since March 2020, according to Saunders\u2019 research. With growing financial pressures and rising inflation dovetailing with lower enrollment, Saunders expects the trend to accelerate in coming years.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe high school graduating class peaks in 2025 and is projected to decline roughly 13% by 2041, with
the steepest losses in the Northeast and Midwest; tuition discount rates at private nonprofits exceed 50%; pandemic-era federal relief is spent; and tuition growth has been at or below inflation since 2018,\u201d Saunders said. \u201cNone of that improves on any horizon I can see.\u201d<\/p>\n
To document this trend, Saunders assembled his working paper \u2014\u00a0or, in academic speak, a yet-to-be-peer-reviewed scholarly article \u2014\u00a0by examining schools\u2019 institutional resilience along with how well graduates fare in the rapidly changing job market.\u00a0<\/p>\n
To determine colleges\u2019 resilience, the professor looked at whether they have the endowments, revenue diversification, enrollment trends and admissions selectivity to absorb the financial and enrollment shocks facing higher ed.<\/p>\n
To determine campuses\u2019 prospects for graduate job placement, he analyzed on-time degree completion rates, earnings-to-debt ratios for grads, exposure to artificial intelligence and demographic trajectories.<\/p>\n
\u200bUsing this data, OLLU, UIW and Texas A&M University-San Antonio all fell into the High Stress category, suggesting they\u2019re among those facing the greatest risk of closure or merger in coming years.<\/p>\n
Specifically, OLLU and UIW scored below the 50th percentile for revenue diversity, enrollment trends, completion rate, earnings-to-debt ratio for graduates and AI exposure.<\/p>\n
TAMUSA, which opened in 2009, scored poorly on endowment per student, selectivity, completion rate and AI exposure. However, it racked up better scores than OLLU and UIW on revenue diversity, enrollment trends and graduate earnings-to-debt ratio.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat pulls TAMUSA into High Stress is a very low six-year completion rate, in part because it\u2019s a relatively young institution still building its outcomes profile,\u201d Saunders said. \u201cThose are different problems with different solutions.\u201d<\/p>\n
High Risk vs. High Capacity<\/p>\n
\u200bAlthough those three Alamo City campuses face economic stress, the study found others here, including the University of Texas at San Antonio, St. Mary\u2019s University and Trinity University are thriving.<\/p>\n
\u200bAll three of those schools landed in Saunders\u2019 \u201cHigh Capacity\u201d category, meaning they are better equipped to address the challenges facing colleges and universities.<\/p>\n
U.S. higher education is exhibiting a sharp \u201ctier-level stratification,\u201d according to Saunders\u2019 research.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Colleges and universities classified as R1 Doctoral Universities, or those with a very high research activity, are far more likely to land in the \u201cHigh Capacity\u201d category, while those which primarily focus on undergraduate education and master\u2019s degrees rather than PhDs face greater uncertainty.<\/p>\n
Traditionally, research institutions tend to attract larger endowments than schools focused on undergrad education.\u00a0<\/p>\n
However, OLLU Provost Alan J. Silva took issue with Saunders\u2019 research, describing it as dated and inaccurate.<\/p>\n
\u201cHis study no longer reflects the reality of OLLU,\u201d Silva told the Current. \u201cHis research draws upon data sources from 2024 and does not represent the significant changes OLLU has made in the past two years.\u201d<\/p>\n
Some of those changes include discontinuing 19 low-enrollment programs last year, a move some students told Texas Public Radio left them with no viable options to complete their degrees. OLLU this month also launched a \u201cno-cost\u201d five-year master\u2019s program for eligible students.<\/p>\n
Saunders acknowledged that his data is from 2024, adding that it doesn\u2019t accurately reflect President Trump\u2019s research funding cuts for colleges and universities.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat\u2019s a real limitation ,\u201d Saunders said. \u201cBut it\u2019s the best data we have.\u201d<\/p>\n
Former students of the three San Antonio campuses which Saunders\u2019 paper identifies as High Risk said they\u2019re not worried about the long-term prospects of their alma maters.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cAs far as my career goes, no one has hired me because I went to UIW,\u201d said John Puga, a member of that school\u2019s Class of 2012. \u201cThey\u2019ve hired me because I worked in the UIW library for eight years. That work experience has been the most valuable to me.\u201d<\/p>\n
Others said they were surprised their schools were identified as being at risk. Andres Jose Narvaez, who graduated from UIW in 2011, said he saw significant expansion of the campus and a growth in degree options while he was there.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u200b\u201cI\u2019ve always known that growth was part of their strategy, but being landlocked in a very expensive part of town doesn\u2019t help either,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Kelly Hernandez-Villarreal, a 2015 OLLU grad, said she wouldn\u2019t be shocked if her alma mater closed its doors. Still, it would be a difficult blow given the education and career start she received.<\/p>\n
\u200b\u201cI\u2019m not too surprised if OLLU were to close down, but it would definitely be devastating,\u201d she said. \u201cTheir psychology department helped me decide to be a school psychologist, which is my career now. It made a huge impact on my career.\u201d<\/p>\n
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