HOUSTON \u2013 A new survey from the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs shows a tight Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate in Texas, with Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a slim lead over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn just weeks before voters head to the polls.<\/p>\n
According to the poll, Paxton has the support of 48% of likely GOP runoff voters, compared to 45% for Cornyn. With only 7% of voters still undecided, researchers say turnout could ultimately determine the winner.<\/p>\n
\u201cJust 7% of people who plan to vote haven\u2019t decided, suggesting the candidate who is able to turn out his voters will determine the winner,\u201d said Ren\u00e9e Cross with the Hobby School.<\/p>\n
Key differences among voters<\/p>\n
The survey highlights clear divides between supporters of the two candidates:<\/p>\n
Paxton voters are more focused on immigration and border security, with 40% naming it their top issue.<\/p>\n
Cornyn voters are more concerned about inflation and cost of living, with 36% selecting it as their priority.<\/p>\n
Despite those differences, both camps overwhelmingly believe their candidate is the strongest Republican to face Democrat James Talarico in the general election. About 86% of supporters on each side said their candidate is more electable.<\/p>\n
Education and voter trends<\/p>\n
Researchers also found a strong link between education levels and candidate preference. Cornyn leads by 10 points among voters with a four-year college degree, while Paxton holds a 17-point advantage among those without one.<\/p>\n
Paxton also appears to be benefiting more from voters who previously supported Wesley Hunt in the March primary. Among those voters, 53% now back Paxton, compared to 34% for Cornyn.<\/p>\n
Other statewide races<\/p>\n
The survey also examined other Republican runoff contests:<\/p>\n
In the attorney general race, state Sen. Mayes Middleton leads U.S. Rep. Chip Roy 48% to 39%, with 13% undecided.<\/p>\n
For the Texas Railroad Commission, incumbent Jim Wright leads challenger Bo French 35% to 28%, though 37% of voters remain unsure.<\/p>\n
Favorability of GOP leaders<\/p>\n
Among top Republican figures, Vice President JD Vance received the highest favorability rating at 81%, followed by Donald Trump (77%), Ted Cruz (76%), and Greg Abbott (75%).<\/p>\n
The Republican primary runoff is set for May 26, with early voting beginning May 18.<\/p>\n
The survey was conducted between April 28 and May 1 among 1,200 likely runoff voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83%.<\/p>\n
Copyright 2026 by KPRC Click2Houston – All rights reserved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"HOUSTON \u2013 A new survey from the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs shows a tight…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":282492,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[6288,288,56,3309,1967,223,287,27,28194,29,28,104073,513],"class_list":["post-282491","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-texas","tag-decision-2026","tag-elections","tag-houston","tag-john-cornyn","tag-ken-paxton","tag-news","tag-politics","tag-texas","tag-texas-gop","tag-texas-headlines","tag-texas-news","tag-uh-poll","tag-university-of-houston"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282491","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=282491"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282491\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/282492"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=282491"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=282491"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=282491"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}