A Texas Public Opinion Research poll released in late April showed Talarico defeating Paxton by 5 points<\/a> (46% to 41%) and edging Cornyn by 3 points (44% to 41%), with the Cornyn margin falling within the survey\u2019s 2.5-percentage-point margin of error, my colleague Eleanor Dearman reported.<\/p>\n My take: Polling is much more challenging than it used to be, and polling in runoffs has always been difficult because it\u2019s a smaller electorate and thus harder to reach voters certain to turn out. These results help demonstrate, though, why alarm bells are ringing loudly in Republican circles<\/a>. Talarico\u2019s campaign is well-funded, and every sign indicates that he\u2019ll remain competitive, making for an expensive, tough race to hold a GOP seat even as Republicans try to fend off a Democratic takeover of the Senate nationwide<\/a>.<\/p>\n The runoff between Paxton and Cornyn feels like a genuine toss-up. Fundamentals continue to favor Paxton, who is more aligned with the hard-core base voter likely to turn out in a runoff. But polls missed that Cornyn would lead in the first round of voting<\/a>, and a 24-year incumbent has hidden strengths, while Paxton\u2019s difficulties \u2014 including that he\u2019s an easier mark for Talarico \u2014 are apparent to all but the most blind loyalists.<\/p>\n Sen. John Cornyn leaves the Senate chamber on March 4 following a vote at the U.S. Capitol in Washington.<\/p>\n Blue Texas? Not so fast, these polls suggest<\/p>\n Star-Telegram columnist Bud Kennedy cautions that Talarico\u2019s polling strength masks a tougher structural environment for Democrats.<\/a> The University of Texas\/Texas Politics Project poll now shows voters identifying as Republican over Democrat by 10 points, up from a 3-point margin in 2018. Also, 50% hold an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party and 35% say the Bible is the literal word of God, up from 28% eight years ago.<\/p>\n My take: Texas Democrats have, with justification, gotten excited over a string of developments that include a nationwide trend their way in elections, strong turnout among their base voters even in nonpartisan local races, and perhaps most of all, the shocking win by Democrat Taylor Rehmet in a special Tarrant County<\/a> state Senate election.<\/p>\n But the mountain they must climb hasn\u2019t shrunk, even if their legs are stronger.<\/p>\n Republicans start out statewide races with an expected edge of at least 800,000 votes. Their candidates beyond Talarico are little-known and poorly funded. Their party infrastructure has withered compared with the Republican machine that dominates the state.<\/p>\n So, yes, there are more reasons for the party to hope for a breakthrough than in years. But with Gov. Greg Abbott and his vast warchest<\/a> and campaign apparatus pulling the Republican wagon, a statewide Democratic win of any kind would still be a stunning upset.<\/p>\n Hear that buzz? National Democrats are falling fast for Talarico<\/p>\n My most recent column examines whether Talarico could be tapped as a 2028 vice presidential pick<\/a>, after podcaster Scott Galloway said on \u201cPivot\u201d that a victory would make him \u201clikely or very likely\u201d to land on the Democratic ticket. In a February Editorial Board interview, Talarico pledged to serve a full six-year Senate term if elected and pushed back on the speculation as premature. Read the whole column to find a fascinating parallel from 20 years ago.<\/p>\n My take: As I\u2019ve said before, national political reporters love to come to Texas to eat barbecue and Tex-Mex on an expense account write about the next great Democratic hope. If Talarico stays close in the polls and continues his Beto O\u2019Rourke-level fundraising<\/a>, the glowing profiles and headlines about a blue Texas will be hard to dodge.<\/p>\n Democrats have a history of falling for young, handsome, articulate candidates who they believe win over the other side by presenting some new paradigm in politics<\/a>. Talarico may fit the mold, but even if he doesn\u2019t, plenty of Democrats (and journalists) will talk themselves into believe that he does.<\/p>\n Do you have an opinion on this topic? Tell us!<\/p>\n We love to hear from Texans with opinions on the news \u2014 and to publish those views in the Opinion section.<\/p>\n \u2022 Letters should be no more than 150 words.<\/p>\n \u2022 Writers should submit letters only once every 30 days.<\/p>\n \u2022 Include your name, address (including city of residence), phone number and email address, so we can contact you if we have questions.<\/p>\n You can submit a letter to the editor two ways:<\/p>\n \u2022 Email letters@star-telegram.com<\/a> (preferred).<\/p>\n![\"Sen.](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/950ff232264df92376c9c2c63c7fe640.jpeg\"\/)
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