Emily Williams Knight<\/a>, president and CEO of the TRA, says the U.S. is facing a 30-year shortage of cattle, a problem that has been building for decades and has no short-term solution.<\/p>\n\u201cWe have a 30-year shortage of beef,\u201d Knight said. \u201cAnd so what we\u2019re hearing from operators, especially our protein operators, think of steakhouses and barbecue restaurants, is really two things. One, they\u2019re being squeezed at the cost they have to buy beef at. But then also there\u2019s no room to push it on the consumer.\u201d<\/p>\n
Knight says the shortage is the result of a perfect storm of factors, a pandemic-era labor shortage that slowed meat processing plants, rising feed costs driven by fuel prices, international supply disruptions, and a surging consumer demand for protein, fueled in part by the GLP-1 movement.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve had this sort of craving of protein,\u201d Knight said. \u201cProtein is at an all-time high from the consumer wanting to have it, and you have the shortage of beef. So restaurants are trying to think about \u2018how do I re-engineer my menu? How do I maybe make a smaller portion and put a different type of protein on the plate?\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n
For barbecue restaurants, she says, there is no workaround.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf you\u2019re a barbecue restaurant, you don\u2019t really have anywhere to move,\u201d Knight said. \u201cAnd I think that\u2019s where you\u2019re seeing a lot of these smaller barbecue restaurants begin to close, because they just don\u2019t have any options as the price continues to increase.\u201d<\/p>\n
It starts with the land<\/p>\n
Bryan cattle rancher Andrea Woods has watched the beef shortage unfold from the other side of the industry. She and her family have been raising cattle in the Brazos Valley for nearly a decade, and she says the crisis starts long before the meat ever reaches a restaurant.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn Texas alone, we\u2019re losing close to 1,000 acres a day to development,\u201d Woods said. \u201cYou take away the land, you don\u2019t have the resource to raise the cattle. So it\u2019s just simple economics, when the supply goes down, the price is going to go up.\u201d<\/p>\n
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From the ranch to the restaurant, rising beef prices are squeezing every side of the industry(KBTX)<\/p>\n
Woods said the exit from the cattle industry is often generational. Large ranches get passed down, heirs disagree on what to do with the land, and development wins out.<\/p>\n
\u201cA lot of people are just wanting the money. It\u2019s all it is to it,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
And while the cattle market is currently strong for ranchers like Woods, meaning they\u2019re getting good prices when they sell, she\u2019s careful to point out that doesn\u2019t mean they\u2019re getting rich.<\/p>\n
\u201cBoth my husband and I have full-time jobs, and we have to keep those to stay afloat,\u201d she said. \u201cRight now we\u2019re getting enough for our cattle that it pays for the cattle, pays their feed bills, fertilizers, all of the things that require continuing on out here.\u201d<\/p>\n
Woods says the long-term consequences of losing ranch land go far beyond price.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf our cattle go away, we\u2019re going to have to import,\u201d she said. \u201cAnd when we do that, the quality drops through the floor. The United States has an incredible amount of beef quality. When you take away the land they use to produce it, you take away that quality.\u201d<\/p>\n
Adapting to survive<\/p>\n
Back at C&J Barbecue, Manning isn\u2019t waiting for prices to drop. He\u2019s engineering his way around the problem, finding ways to use every part of the product so nothing goes to waste.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe take the fat, and we\u2019re going to start rendering that into beef tallow and selling that,\u201d he said. \u201cSo I\u2019m trying to use 100% of that meat or that product so I have zero waste, so increasing all of my margins.\u201d<\/p>\n
Pork trimmings go into the beans. Brisket scraps become hamburger grind, chili meat, and sloppy Joes. Every cut has a purpose. But Manning is realistic about how long that strategy can carry a business.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are not making more money, we\u2019re just trying to stay profitable,\u201d he said. \u201cHow long are you going to keep doing what you\u2019re doing when you\u2019re not making any money? It\u2019s really, really hard.\u201d<\/p>\n
C&J has been a fixture in the Bryan-College Station community since 1981, and Manning said that community connection is ultimately what keeps the doors open.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe live in this community. I\u2019m from this community, so this community is everything,\u201d he said. \u201cI think people see a lot of value in coming here and supporting a family that cares so much.\u201d<\/p>\n
What comes next<\/p>\n
The Texas Restaurant Association says it is working with lawmakers at the state and federal levels to push for policies that could help offset rising costs, from work permits for meatpacking plant employees to better regulation of credit card processing fees and insurance.<\/p>\n
Knight said awareness is the first step.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf we\u2019re paying a lot in the restaurant, the consumer is paying a lot in the grocery store too, so everyone is feeling it,\u201d she said. \u201cThere\u2019s no doubt that the fuel price is also impacting the beef price right now. It goes back to the cost of feed. When fuel prices go up, it\u2019s going to cost more for that feed, and that cost is going to get passed right onto the consumer.\u201d<\/p>\n
For Woods, the hope is simple and urgent.<\/p>\n
\u201cHopes and dreams are that Texas would do something to limit the amount of development going on right now on ranch lands,\u201d she said. \u201cIt\u2019s very scary.\u201d<\/p>\n
And for Manning, a man who has spent his life in the restaurant business, the only option is to keep adapting.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe only thing guaranteed in life is change,\u201d he said. \u201cWe just have to change with it and try to figure out how to navigate. It\u2019s a crazy world.\u201d<\/p>\n
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