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El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o is expected to emerge in the next several weeks, much earlier than expected. Its effects on hurricane season can vary, depending on where tropical cyclones form.<\/p>\n
Climate Prediction Center\/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/p>\n
Earlier this year, El Ni\u00f1o wasn\u2019t expected to arrive until the fall<\/a> or early winter. However, recent forecast trends have significantly accelerated that timeline. According to the latest update from the National Weather Service, released Thursday, there is now an 82% chance that El Ni\u00f1o develops between May and July.<\/p>\n For El Ni\u00f1o to officially develop<\/a>, sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean must be at least 0.5 degree Celsius warmer than the long-term average. As of Thursday, temperatures in that region were already 0.4 degree above average, meaning that El Ni\u00f1o status could be reached within the next few weeks.<\/p>\n For El Ni\u00f1o to officially develop, sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean must be at least 0.5 degree Celsius warmer than the long-term average. Forecasters are giving El Ni\u00f1o an 82% chance of forming between May and July.<\/p>\n Climate Prediction Center\/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/p>\n Forecasts show El Ni\u00f1o continuing to strengthen through the fall and winter<\/a> months. The weather service\u2019s outlook\u00a0indicates a nearly 40% chance of a \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o, which would mean sea-surface temperatures rising to more than 2 degrees Celsius above average. That has happened only six times since 1950, with the most recent one occurring in 2024.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Some forecast models\u00a0\u2014 particularly the ECMWF global ensemble model\u00a0\u2014 even suggest the incoming El Ni\u00f1o could become the strongest<\/a> ever recorded.<\/p>\n Forecasts show El Ni\u00f1o continuing to strengthen through the fall and winter months. The weather service\u2019s outlook\u00a0indicates a nearly 40% chance of a \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o, which would mean sea-surface temperatures rising to more than 2 degrees Celsius above average.<\/p>\n Climate Prediction Center\/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s effect on\u00a0hurricanes in the summer<\/p>\n When the tropical Pacific warms during El Ni\u00f1o, stronger winds high in the atmosphere over the Atlantic and Caribbean can disrupt developing storms, making it harder for hurricanes to organize and intensify.<\/p>\n Because of that effect from wind shear, El Ni\u00f1o events typically result in fewer Atlantic hurricanes than average. During strong El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o events, hurricanes have rarely threatened the Texas Gulf Coast. Since 1850, only one storm \u2014 Hurricane Audrey in 1957 \u2014 came close, making landfall in far southwest Louisiana during a moderate El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Last month, the hurricane season forecast from Colorado State University researchers<\/a>, one of the nation\u2019s most widely trusted and highly regarded hurricane season assessments, predicted slightly below-average activity in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, largely because of the developing El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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