AUSTIN (Nexstar) \u2014 Texans can now cast their votes for the primary runoffs across the state \u2014 including in a high-profile Republican race for U.S. Senate between incumbent John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. The early voting window runs between May 18 through May 22, with the election taking place on May 26.<\/p>\n
Monday has been marked on the calendars of Cornyn and Paxton for a long time. Possibly not when Paxton officially announced his long-anticipated campaign in April 2025, but certainly after U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, joined the race.<\/a><\/p>\n Throughout his run, Cornyn\u2019s pitch to Texas Republicans has been remarkably consistent.<\/p>\n \u201cKen Paxton could well lose to [Democratic nominee State Rep.] James Talarico because he\u2019s got so much baggage,\u201d Cornyn said to reporters after voting in Austin on Monday morning.<\/p>\n Paxton, instead, has been focusing on Cornyn\u2019s sparse disagreements with U.S. President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n \u201cHe\u2019s really failed us and he\u2019s failed the country because we\u2019re sacrificing those resources that could have gone to elect Republicans,\u201d Paxton told Nexstar in April. Prior to the runoff starting, the race was already the most expensive U.S. Senate primary ever. \u201cInstead they\u2019re spending it on me.\u201d<\/p>\n \u2018We can\u2019t just win elections with Republican votes\u2019<\/p>\n In the Democratic primary between Talarico and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, one word became key \u2014 electability. Cornyn is trying to paint a similar story.<\/p>\n \u201cWe know we can\u2019t just win elections with Republican votes. You need Independents and the occasional convert from the other party and Ken Paxton will get none of those,\u201d he says. \u201cI\u2019ve spent most of my adult lifetime\u2026 trying to build the Republican party in Texas. We haven\u2019t elected a Democrat since 1994. But again, Ken Paxton puts all of that at risk.\u201d<\/p>\n On Monday morning, a Texas Southern University (TSU) poll put his hypothesis to the test. It found Cornyn and Talarico tied at 45% each, with Talarico narrowly ahead of Paxton 45%-44%.<\/p>\n \u201cThere is a tiny bit of support for [Cornyn\u2019s] theory, but overall whether it\u2019s Paxton or Cornyn as the [Republican] nominee, we\u2019re looking at a dead heat right now against James Talarico,\u201d Mark P. Jones, a political science professor and pollster who worked on the TSU poll, said.<\/p>\n TSUTexasNov2026<\/a>Download<\/a><\/p>\n However, Jones says it\u2019s too early for this poll to accurately test Cornyn\u2019s theory.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat you really can\u2019t replicate with the survey today is the effect of $100 to $150 million of attack ads against either Paxton or Cornyn if they are the GOP nominee,\u201d Jones said. \u201cThe fear that many in Washington have \u2014 as well as many in Texas have \u2014 is that if Paxton is the nominee, there\u2019s so much material to work with. Whether it\u2019s the serial adultery, the mortgage fraud, the securities fraud, the massive gain in net worth while in office (or) the retaliation against whistleblowers, the Democrats will be able to utilize that to weaken Paxton more than they would be able to use attack ads to weaken Cornyn.\u201d<\/p>\n Cornyn highlighted all of those controversies in his primary campaign, yet still finds himself neck-and-neck race. Paxton says voters see through the attacks.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s pathetic that that\u2019s where he\u2019s gone,\u201d he told Nexstar in April. \u201cHe lacks the dignity of a U.S. Senator. This is another reason he should be replaced \u2014 he doesn\u2019t want to talk about his accomplishments because there are none. And he doesn\u2019t want to talk about what I\u2019ve accomplished and so he makes it personal. Of course, he lies and I have no respect for the guy.\u201d<\/p>\n Cornyn \u2014 who has spent most of his career as a reserved, mild-mannered candidate and politician \u2014 says \u201cwe just told the truth.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cI can\u2019t help Ken Paxton\u2019s self-destructiveness,\u201d he said. \u201cHe\u2019s lied to Texas taxpayers. He\u2019s lied to his own hand-picked senior staff who turned him into the FBI because he was interfering in a federal investigation against one of his campaign donors. He was impeached by a Republican-led house. And then he\u2019s blown up his own family. I think the underlying message in all this is you can\u2019t trust Ken Paxton any farther than you can see him.\u201d<\/p>\n \u2018Both candidates are damaged\u2019<\/p>\n Many Texas Republican leaders seem unconvinced that this contentious primary will weaken Republican\u2019s chances of holding onto the Senate seat.<\/p>\n \u201cRepublicans \u2014 they\u2019re going to unite,\u201d Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, R-Texas, said after casting his ballot on Monday.<\/p>\n Jones says Talarico\u2019s strong polling numbers are made possible due to the bruising Republican primary \u2014 citing TSU\u2019s numbers which have Democratic nominee for Governor Gina Hinojosa and potential Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor Vikki Goodwin trailing their Republican opponents.<\/p>\n \u201cOverall, Texas remains a red state where the Republican camps are favored statewide,\u201d Jones said. \u201cIt\u2019s only this very nasty, very expensive and very bloody Republican primary and the potential to have a damaged candidate emerge from it that has Republican worried about the November U.S. Senate race.\u201d<\/p>\n Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n