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In this weather satellite image taken during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Humberto, at right, spins in the western Atlantic north of Puerto Rico. At left, a tropical depression near the Bahamas that later became Tropical Storm Imelda appears as a broad band of clouds.<\/p>\n
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites\/CIRA and NOAA<\/p>\n
Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are predicting a below normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season<\/a> in their official outlook released Thursday.<\/p>\n The U.S. government forecast calls for between\u00a08 and 14 named storms<\/a>, including 3 to 6 and 1 to 3 major hurricanes, during the six-month hurricane season that begins June 1. Major hurricanes are Category 3 storms or stronger with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.<\/p>\n NOAA gives the 2026 hurricane season<\/a> a 55%\u00a0chance of being below normal, a 35% chance of near-normal activity and a 10%chance of above-normal activity.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n The outlook comes as a rapidly developing El Ni\u00f1o appears increasingly likely to become one of the dominant weather patterns shaping the upcoming hurricane season.<\/p>\n What the 2026 hurricane season outlook shows<\/p>\n One of the biggest factors expected to limit Atlantic hurricane activity this year is the growing likelihood that El Ni\u00f1o develops during the summer<\/a> and strengthens into fall.<\/p>\n El Nino, which is not a single storm or weather event, naturally occurs when sea-surface temperatures\u00a0in the eastern Pacific Ocean just north of the equator become much warmer than the long-term average temperature. But this major transfer of\u00a0heat energy in the world\u2019s largest ocean can significantly affect weather around the world.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n The National Weather Service\u2019s Climate Prediction Center gives El Ni\u00f1o an 82% chance of developing between May and July. Sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are already nearing El Ni\u00f1o thresholds and could officially reach El Ni\u00f1o status within weeks.<\/p>\n CLIMATE CONNECTION: Super El Ni\u00f1o risk rises for 2026, new forecast shows. Here\u2019s what it means for Texas.<\/a><\/p>\n Forecasts also suggest the event could become unusually strong by late 2026. NOAA\u2019s outlook shows a nearly 40% chance of a \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o developing this fall and winter<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 something that has occurred only a handful of times since 1950.<\/p>\n Some global forecast models even suggest this El Ni\u00f1o could rival or exceed some of the strongest events ever observed.<\/p>\n Why El Ni\u00f1o matters for hurricane season<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o often suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing upper-level winds across the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean. Those stronger winds create wind shear, which disrupts developing tropical systems and makes it harder for hurricanes to organize and intensify.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Because of that, strong El Ni\u00f1o years historically produce fewer Atlantic hurricanes than average.<\/p>\n There have been no Texas hurricane landfalls during El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0years since 1950.<\/p>\n National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/p>\n Last month, Colorado State University researchers\u00a0\u2014 whose hurricane outlook is among the nation\u2019s most closely watched<\/a> seasonal forecasts\u00a0\u2014 also predicted slightly below-average activity for the 2026 hurricane season, largely because of the expected El Ni\u00f1o development.<\/p>\n Historically, strong El Ni\u00f1o years have tended to reduce hurricane threats along the Texas Gulf Coast. Since 1950, when more reliable El Ni\u00f1o data became available, only one storm associated with a moderate-to-strong El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0\u2014 Hurricane Audrey in 1957\u00a0\u2014 tracked near Texas before making landfall in southwest Louisiana.<\/p>\n No hurricane season outlook can predict landfalls<\/p>\n Although NOAA\u2019s seasonal outlook estimates how active the Atlantic basin may become overall, it does not predict where storms will track or whether hurricanes will strike Texas or the Gulf Coast.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Texas also remains vulnerable to tropical storms and hurricanes unless and until El Ni\u00f1o fully develops<\/a> and begins significantly increasing wind shear across the Atlantic basin.<\/p>\n Current forecasts suggest El Ni\u00f1o may continue strengthening through the summer, but it may not fully establish itself until later in the season.<\/p>\n That means June, July and possibly part of August could still feature conditions favorable for tropical development across the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea before El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s suppressive effects become more pronounced.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n