{"id":303350,"date":"2026-05-21T19:07:07","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T19:07:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/303350\/"},"modified":"2026-05-21T19:07:07","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T19:07:07","slug":"noaa-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-hurricane-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/303350\/","title":{"rendered":"NOAA predicts a below-normal 2026 hurricane season"},"content":{"rendered":"

Audio recording is automated for accessibility. Humans wrote and edited the story. See our AI policy<\/a>, and give us feedback<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are predicting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season<\/a>, officials said Thursday, citing the expected El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern which tends to suppress hurricane formation. <\/p>\n

The agency forecasts eight to 14 named storms, with up to three potentially becoming Category 3 or higher hurricanes \u2014 which have wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour. <\/p>\n

Hurricane season starts June 1 and ends Nov. 30.<\/p>\n

Last year was particularly quiet in the Gulf of Mexico \u2014 no named tropical storms<\/a> or hurricanes made landfall<\/a> in Texas. In 2024, Texas was struck by Tropical Storm Alberto and Hurricane Beryl<\/a> \u2014 a Category 1 that left millions of Texans without electricity for days.<\/p>\n

NOAA defines an average season as one with 14 named tropical storms and seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. The agency\u2019s forecast predicts the formation of storms, not whether they will make landfall. <\/p>\n

\u201cEven though we\u2019re expecting a below average season in the Atlantic, it\u2019s very important to understand that it only takes one,\u201d said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs. \u201cWe have had category fives make landfall in the past during below average seasons.\u201d<\/p>\n

The agency\u2019s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said one of the lessons from last year\u2019s above-normal season<\/a> was continuing their messaging on early preparedness. <\/p>\n

\u201cDon\u2019t let words like below-average change the way you\u2019re prepared,\u201d Graham said. <\/p>\n

The last time forecasters predicted a below-normal season was 2015<\/a>, according to Matthew Rosencrans, NWS lead hurricane season forecaster. That year, no hurricanes made landfall and just two named tropical storms did, including Tropical Storm Bill that hit Texas in June. <\/p>\n

NOAA has a 70% confidence level in these predictions and warns that the most active stretch will occur from mid\u2011August through late September. <\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o is a naturally occurring climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean characterized by unusually warm surface water near the equator. In the Atlantic, El Ni\u00f1o is expected to strengthen upper\u2011level winds that can rip the tops off developing tropical systems and blunt their intensification. <\/p>\n

While officials did not mention climate change, the agency said El Ni\u00f1o brings competing factors: warmer ocean temperatures that could support a more active year and wind conditions that can suppress storm formation. According to climate scientists, climate change is warming the Atlantic\u2019s waters, which can super charge <\/a>hurricanes that bring more heavy rainfall and higher storm surge when they make landfall. <\/p>\n

Graham said early preparedness for storms is critical, especially because every Category 5 hurricane that\u2019s made landfall in the U.S. has rapidly intensified from a tropical storm within a few days before making landfall. <\/p>\n

He recommended that people have a clear evacuation plan, food, water and medical supplies that could last a couple weeks, a radio and a flashlight.<\/p>\n

For more tips, here\u2019s the Tribune\u2019s guide on how to prepare for hurricanes.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Audio recording is automated for accessibility. Humans wrote and edited the story. See our AI policy, and give…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":303351,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[16973,27,29,28],"class_list":["post-303350","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-texas","tag-hurricanes","tag-texas","tag-texas-headlines","tag-texas-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/303350","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=303350"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/303350\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/303351"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=303350"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=303350"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=303350"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}