AUSTIN (Nexstar) \u2014 With the weeklong early voting window in the past \u2014 both incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn, R-Texas, and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, R, get one last chance to make their case for the Republican nomination for Cornyn\u2019s senate seat.<\/p>\n
An hour-and-a-half before polls closed at 7 p.m. central, the Texas Secretary of State\u2019s office said over 575,000 Republican ballots had been cast across the Lone Star State. It\u2019s much smaller than the first round of voting, where nearly 1.343 million votes were cast in the two-week long early voting window.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe runoff is the day after Memorial Day,\u201d Cornyn supporter and podcast host Garrett Fulce said. \u201cPeople are closing up shop at school, they\u2019re preparing for vacations. They\u2019ve tuned out.\u201d<\/p>\n
While a large portion of Texas voters may be tuned out, the political world is locked in. Prior to the runoff, the race was already the most expensive primary in U.S. Senate history. Then on Tuesday, President Donald Trump suddenly and surprisingly endorsed Paxton \u2014 flipping the race on its head.<\/p>\n
\u201cI wouldn\u2019t say the race is over because of the President\u2019s endorsement,\u201d Rice University Political Science professor and Texas pollster Mark P. Jones said. \u201cBut this has clearly changed the dynamics of the race, taking it from being one where Cornyn was a modest underdog to one where Cornyn\u2019s a pretty substantial underdog and it would take a minor miracle for him to win on Tuesday.\u201d<\/p>\n
Cornyn still believes he has a path to victory.<\/p>\n
\u201cAt this point nothing much else matters, except votes. Make yours count. Texas is worth fighting for,\u201d he posted on X after the endorsement.<\/a><\/p>\n However, between the endorsement and the voter turnout numbers, things aren\u2019t looking good for Cornyn. In the first round of voting \u2014 in which he finished 1.5% ahead of Paxton \u2014 2,134,408 Republican ballots were cast.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re looking at Republican (runoff) turnout somewhere in the 1-1.25 million range, potentially up to 1.5 million if there\u2019s a big election day push,\u201d Jones said. \u201cGenerally, the lower turnout is, the better than it is for candidates like Ken Paxton\u2026 the people who turn out to vote in these (runoffs) tend to be more conservative Republicans.\u201d<\/p>\n Longtime Paxton supporters are struggling to contain their excitement.<\/p>\n \u201cHe\u2019ll be above 50% on election day, no doubt about it,\u201d Paxton supporter Tom Slocum said. \u201cI\u2019d imagine he\u2019s actually somewhere around 56%-57%\u2026 maybe even higher than 60%.\u201d<\/p>\n