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Bettors believe the Texas Senate race remains a toss-up despite Attorney General Ken Paxton\u2019s thumping win<\/a> in the GOP primary runoff Tuesday night\u2014after Democrats\u2019 odds have narrowed in recent months\u2014with some pollsters suggesting the result slightly boosts the chances of a blue upset in the red state. <\/p>\n Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks at an election night watch party held by the Lone Star Liberty PAC in Plano, Texas.<\/p>\n Getty ImagesKey Facts<\/p>\n On crypto-based betting platform Polymarket<\/a> ,bookmakers believe the GOP candidate has a 54% chance of winning the Texas Senate race compared to Democrat James Talarico\u2019s 47%.<\/p>\n Talarico\u2019s odds on Polymarket jumped slightly ahead of the Republicans after Trump announced he was endorsing Paxton\u2014deemed a more controversial candidate\u2014over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.<\/p>\n While Talarico\u2019s lead in the betting markets didn\u2019t last very long, the odds of the race have significantly narrowed from being 75-25 in favor of the Republicans at the start of the year to basically a toss-up now. <\/p>\n Bettors on Kalshi<\/a> believe Paxton has slightly better odds of beating Talarico at 55% to 45%.<\/p>\n However, the GOP\u2019s odds of retaining the seat have shrunk significantly since January, when they were 80%.<\/p>\n Tangent<\/p>\n After Paxton\u2019s victory, Cook Political Report updated its rating<\/a> for the Texas Senate race from \u201clikely Republican\u201d to \u201clean Republican,\u201d highlighting the Democrats\u2019 improved odds. In its update, the publication said Republicans were now \u201csaddled with a controversial candidate who\u2019s been a weak fundraiser,\u201d and noted that Paxon has a \u201clitany of ethical lapses for Democrats to exploit.\u201d Former FiveThirtyEight editorial director G. Elliott Morris echoed this in his forecast<\/a> and said that the Texas race was now a \u201ctossup.\u201d Morris noted that Paxton\u2019s victory has given Democrats their \u201cpreferred and weaker opponent.\u201d<\/p>\n What Do The Overall Betting Odds Say About The Midterms?<\/p>\n Despite major concerns about unfavorable redistricting, Democrats still remain the bookmakers\u2019 favorite to win the House. According to Election Betting Odds<\/a>, which consolidates numbers from multiple markets including Kalshi, Polymarket and PredictIt, bettors believe Democrats have a 75.8% chance of taking back the House. Bookmakers believe that the Senate race remains a toss-up with the GOP having slightly better overall odds of retaining control at 52.4%. The Democrats\u2019 Senate odds have surged since the start of the year and a boost after the start of the Iran war had even pushed their odds ahead of the GOP for several weeks. <\/p>\n Further Reading<\/p>\n