\n But it\u2019s a question that\u2019s clearly legitimate in 2026. That\u2019s because Democrats got their coveted opponent in the state\u2019s US Senate race: the baggage-ridden Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. (Paxton drubbed Sen. John Cornyn in a runoff Tuesday after a late endorsement from President Donald Trump.)\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cI got a message to Republicans in Texas and nationwide: Do not take this general election for granted,\u201d GOP Sen. Ted Cruz said on a new episode of his podcast<\/a>. \u201cIt is easy to say it\u2019s Texas, it\u2019s red, we\u2019re going to win \u2014 and I believe we are going to win \u2014 but I also think the Democrat nominee James Talarico is a dangerous candidate.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n Indeed, the data suggest Democrats\u2019 chances are as good as \u2014 or better than \u2014 ever in the last three decades. History and logic suggest it\u2019s still worth being circumspect.\n <\/p>\n \n First, the basics.\n <\/p>\n \n The case for Paxton being a problematic candidate for Republicans is self-evident, while the case for Talarico being a strong candidate for Democrats makes theoretical sense but is untested.\n <\/p>\n \n CNN\u2019s Patrick Svitek recaps some of Paxton\u2019s not-so-greatest hits<\/a>:\n <\/p>\n \n As for Talarico, it remains to be seen how he\u2019ll play.\n <\/p>\n \n Democrats love that he speaks openly and comfortably about his Christian faith and hope he can make a play for conservative-leaning religious voters.\n <\/p>\n \n But he also has something of a Kamala Harris problem. That\u2019s because, like Harris, he said some rather \u201cwoke\u201d things<\/a> in recent years when that was more en vogue on the left \u2014 things like that there are six biological sexes and that \u201cGod is nonbinary.\u201d He has called the American flag a \u201ccomplicated symbol.\u201d And while Republicans have falsely accused Talarico of being a vegan, he did in 2022 talk about reducing meat consumption and said he was running a \u201cnon-meat\u201d campaign for the state House.\n <\/p>\n \n Those kinds of comments shouldn\u2019t be undersold in this race. They could be real hurdles with culturally conservative voters \u2014 signals to them that maybe Talarico, despite all his talk about his faith in God, is far from one of them.\n <\/p>\n \n But at least for now, there are some real reasons for Democrats to be optimistic.\n <\/p>\n \n That\u2019s because the environment is increasingly good for their party, and the data back up the idea that Paxton could be a drag on Republicans.\n <\/p>\n \n The national \u201cgeneric ballot\u201d keeps trending toward Democrats, to the point that some recent polls show them with a<\/a> double-digit lead<\/a>. And with Trump\u2019s approval rating falling lower than ever before, it\u2019s increasingly conceivable the environment could be better for Democrats than in 2018, when Democrat Beto O\u2019Rourke lost to GOP Sen. Ted Cruz by just 2.6 points.\n <\/p>\n \n And crucially for Texas, Trump has lost huge ground with Latino voters<\/a>, who look like they\u2019ll revert to a strong Democratic constituency after trending Republican in recent years.\n <\/p>\n \n The polls of this specific race are also quite good for Democrats right now.\n <\/p>\n \n An April University of Texas\/Texas Politics Project poll<\/a> actually showed Talarico leading Paxton by eight points among registered voters, 42%-34%. That\u2019s even as GOP Gov. Greg Abbott led his race by 6 \u2014 a whopping 14-point gap between Paxton\u2019s and Abbott\u2019s performances.\n <\/p>\n \n A more recent Texas Southern University\/YouGov poll<\/a> showed a tied Senate race among registered voters, 45%-45%. But again, Paxton underperformed other statewide candidates like Abbott (who again led by 6).\n <\/p>\n \n These are the kinds of polls you basically never see in Texas. In fact, even O\u2019Rourke \u2014 Democrats\u2019 most successful Senate candidate in decades \u2014 polled consistently behind Cruz through all of 2018.\n <\/p>\n \n Paxton has also proved he underperforms other Republicans in actual elections, at least somewhat. In 2022, he notched the smallest margin of any statewide Texas Republican that cycle, winning by 9 points even as others won by between 11 and 15 points.\n <\/p>\n \n A deeper dive into the new polls also suggests Paxton has work to do in patching things up after a brutal GOP nominating contest.\n <\/p>\n![\"AUSTIN,](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/230921163131-13-week-in-photos-092123.jpg\")
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