BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) – Texas Republicans sent a shockwave through the political world Tuesday night, ousting four-term U.S. Senator John Cornyn in favor of Trump-backed Attorney General Ken Paxton. It marks the first time a sitting Texas senator has been defeated by a member of his own party since 1970 \u2014 and sets up what could be one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country.<\/p>\n
Texas A&M political science professor Kirby Goidel broke down what the results mean for the GOP, the upcoming general election, and the enduring power of Donald Trump\u2019s political brand.<\/p>\n
According to Goidel, Cornyn\u2019s defeat may have been inevitable.<\/p>\n
\u201cI don\u2019t think there was anything he could do,\u201d Goidel said. \u201cJohn Cornyn is an establishment, institutional Republican. The one thing he could have done early on, if you remember, Trump was thinking about endorsing him during the first round of primaries. Trump backed off of it when MAGA influencers all said, \u2018don\u2019t do it. Paxton\u2019s our guy.\u2019 That\u2019s the one thing that might have changed this. He might have been able to win in that first round. Once it went to the runoff, he\u2019s an incumbent. Being in a runoff is a bad thing if you\u2019re an incumbent, almost always.\u201d<\/p>\n
Goidel noted that Cornyn\u2019s political identity \u2014 shaped across the Bush era, the Tea Party movement, and now the MAGA era \u2014 ultimately worked against him in a partisan primary environment.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s not really that ideological because Cornyn\u2019s a reliable conservative politician,\u201d Goidel said. \u201cWhat it really is about is style, right? Cornyn\u2019s an establishment Republican. He\u2019s the number two senator in the country, really influential, very important to Washington. But he\u2019s not a fighter. He\u2019s not aggressive. He\u2019s not partisan. And so that is both his strength and his weakness. It\u2019s a weakness in a partisan primary. It\u2019s a strength in a general election.\u201d<\/p>\n
Cornyn\u2019s loss sets up a general election matchup between Paxton and Democratic candidate James Talarico \u2014 a race Goidel says is the best opportunity Texas Democrats have seen in a generation.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is a dream for the Democratic Party, right? And it doesn\u2019t mean they\u2019re going to win. So don\u2019t take that too far,\u201d Goidel said. \u201cBut this is the best hand. They haven\u2019t won a statewide race in over three decades. This is the best hand if we\u2019re playing poker that they\u2019ve been dealt in those three decades. You have a scandal-plagued nominee on the Republican side. You have an unpopular president with declining approval ratings. You have a struggling economy. You have a midterm election. Everything is in their favor that way. But this is still a Republican-leaning state. So Democrats are competitive, but it\u2019s hard to see if they get over the hump.\u201d<\/p>\n
One of the night\u2019s most striking storylines was the continued strength of Trump-backed candidates \u2014 even as the president\u2019s approval ratings have declined nationally. Goidel said Trump\u2019s influence over the Republican Party is unlike anything he has seen in his lifetime.<\/p>\n
\u201cTrump has done something that there is no other party boss that I can think of in any time in my lifetime who has been effective at this. He controls the Republican Party,\u201d Goidel said. \u201cSome of his nominees have done very poorly in the general election. Some of the people he\u2019s backed. But if he comes at you in a Republican primary, he tends to win.\u201d<\/p>\n
Goidel added that while Trump\u2019s endorsement of Paxton may not have been the decisive factor, it helped boost his margin of victory \u2014 even as fellow senators lobbied the former president to back Cornyn.<\/p>\n
\u201cNot only that, but also going after people like a John Cornyn, who a lot of other senators were saying, \u2018President Trump, you\u2019ve got to support Cornyn. He\u2019s one of our guys. He\u2019s helpful to the team.\u2019 And Trump backed off of it and then ultimately endorsed Paxton. In this case, I don\u2019t think he was decisive. But I think when you look at that, he helped bump up that margin for Paxton.\u201d<\/p>\n
Tuesday\u2019s results also saw Congressman Chip Roy \u2014 known as a firebrand conservative \u2014 lose his Republican primary to Mayes Middleton, who fully embraced Trump\u2019s brand throughout the campaign.<\/p>\n
\u201cRoy has been sort of a firebrand Republican. He\u2019s been one of these fighters that you can look at. He\u2019s made noise,\u201d Goidel said. \u201cBut MAGA Mayes Middleton completely embraced Donald Trump. He didn\u2019t get the endorsement, but he completely embraced him. Everything in his ads was about Chip Roy saying negative things about Donald Trump. And this is really another statement about just Trump\u2019s hold over the political party.\u201d<\/p>\n
The bottom line from Goidel on the night\u2019s results: \u201cIn Republican primaries, Trump wins.\u201d<\/p>\n
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