This is your hurricane forecast, but more importantly, it\u2019s what you need to watch for this hurricane season and how it could impact you and your family.<\/p>\n
An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. This year, most of the major forecast groups are calling for a season that\u2019s near or slightly below average.<\/p>\n
The major forecasts call for a below average number of storms to form (Copyright 2026 by KPRC Click2Houston – All rights reserved.)<\/p>\n
Colorado State University, which has issued hurricane forecasts for the past 42 years and is considered one of the most accurate groups, is forecasting 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. NOAA, the National Hurricane Center, is also forecasting a season that\u2019s close to average or slightly below average. WeatherBell, one of the forecast companies we work with, is predicting an even quieter season with 11 named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.<\/p>\n
But those aren\u2019t the only forecasts out there.<\/p>\n
There are 30 different agencies who make a seasonal hurricane forecast (Copyright 2026 by KPRC Click2Houston – All rights reserved.)<\/p>\n
More than 30 organizations, including universities, government agencies, and private weather companies, issue seasonal hurricane outlooks. When you compare them side by side, most are pointing toward fewer storms than average this year. There are a couple of exceptions, including 268Wx and the University of Arizona.<\/p>\n
All but two forecasts are below average (Copyright 2026 by KPRC Click2Houston – All rights reserved.)<\/p>\n
The University of Arizona uses machine learning and artificial intelligence in its hurricane outlook. Their forecast is more active because of the warm waters in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf could overpower some of the suppressing effects of El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n
And that\u2019s the key battle this season: El Ni\u00f1o versus the Gulf.<\/p>\n
Who wins this hurricane season<\/p>\n
You\u2019ve probably heard we\u2019re expecting a strong El Ni\u00f1o pattern this year. In simple terms, El Ni\u00f1o changes global weather patterns by warming the equatorial Pacific Ocean. One of the biggest impacts of hurricane season is increased wind shear across the Atlantic Basin. Wind shear rips apart storms and usually limits hurricane development in the Atlantic and Caribbean.<\/p>\n
At the same time, though, Gulf waters are exceptionally warm.<\/p>\n
Right now, Gulf temperatures are already running in the lower to middle 80s, and current data ranks this among the top three warmest Gulf water temperature years ever recorded. That\u2019s plenty warm enough to fuel tropical systems.<\/p>\n
Near record warmth this time of year<\/p>\n
While the overall number of storms may be lower, my concern is where storms form.<\/p>\n
History shows that even during strong El Ni\u00f1o years, it only takes one storm close to home to make it a dangerous season.<\/p>\n
In 1983, another strong El Ni\u00f1o year, Hurricane Alicia rapidly developed near the Louisiana coast and strengthened into a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall near Galveston and Houston. It went from a cluster of thunderstorms to a major hurricane in 36 hours!<\/p>\n
August 15-21 1983 (Copyright 2026 by KPRC Click2Houston – All rights reserved.)<\/p>\n
That\u2019s the type of setup we have to watch carefully this year.<\/p>\n
When storms form close to the Gulf Coast, they can sometimes avoid the stronger wind shear that\u2019s farther out in the Atlantic. That means they can organize quickly and rapidly intensify with very little warning time.<\/p>\n
Unlike storms that spend days crossing the Atlantic or Caribbean, these systems may develop close to land, giving people far less time to prepare.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s why the most important message this hurricane season is simple:<\/p>\n
Be prepared now… not later.<\/p>\n
If a storm develops near the coast, you may only have 24 to 48 hours to make important decisions for your family. The goal is to avoid scrambling at the last minute because supplies aren\u2019t ready, plans haven\u2019t been made, or evacuation decisions haven\u2019t been discussed.<\/p>\n
Preparation today brings peace of mind tomorrow.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s what the KPRC 2 Weather Team tries and do for you, to help you stay informed, stay prepared, and most importantly, keep you and your family safe this hurricane season.<\/p>\n
Anthony’s Weather Lab<\/p>\n
More Stories Like This In Our Email Newsletter<\/p>\n
Copyright 2026 by KPRC Click2Houston – All rights reserved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This is your hurricane forecast, but more importantly, it\u2019s what you need to watch for this hurricane season…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":317625,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[91777,171,46431,56,58,57,4683,92914,16973],"class_list":["post-317624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-houston","tag-el-nino","tag-forecast","tag-gulf","tag-houston","tag-houston-headlines","tag-houston-news","tag-hurricane","tag-hurricane-forecast","tag-hurricanes"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/317624","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=317624"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/317624\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/317625"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=317624"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=317624"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=317624"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}