<\/p>\n
With El Ni\u00f1o officially in place, sea-surface temperatures are trending above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n
WeatherBELL<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o,\u00a0the naturally occurring but relatively infrequent<\/a> warming of the equatorial waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean, continues to strengthen across the tropical Pacific<\/a>, a trend that could lower hurricane activity in the Atlantic while increasing the odds of a wetter winter across Texas.<\/p>\n The latest update from NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center<\/a> shows El Ni\u00f1o firmly in place. It officially arrived earlier this month when sea-surface temperatures in the tropical waters of the eastern Pacific exceeded the long-term average by 0.5 degrees Celsius. The latest El Nino index reading this month shows temperatures at least 0.7 degrees Celsius higher than normal.<\/p>\n The Climate Prediction Center gives this event more than a 60% chance of becoming a very strong or \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o through the fall and winter months as ocean and atmospheric conditions continue to reinforce one another.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center forecasts show El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o continuing to\u00a0strengthen through the fall and winter months.<\/p>\n Climate Prediction Center\/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/p>\n El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o, wind shear and Tropical Storm Arthur<\/p>\n For Texas, the most immediate effects of a strengthening El Ni\u00f1o are expected during the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season<\/a>, which officially runs through Nov. 30.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o typically increases upper-level winds across the Atlantic basin, including the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. Those stronger winds create wind shear, a difference in wind speed or direction between the surface and higher levels of the atmosphere, which can disrupt developing tropical systems and make it more difficult for hurricanes to organize and intensify.<\/p>\n SAHARAN DUST: How does dust from the world\u2019s largest desert reach Houston, a distance of nearly 4,000 miles?<\/a><\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Texas recently saw what that can look like with Tropical Storm Arthur. Although Arthur made landfall near Matagorda Bay, the storm remained poorly organized for much of its life cycle as persistent wind shear displaced much of its thunderstorm activity east of the center. The result was a lopsided tropical storm that produced heavy rain and coastal impacts but struggled to strengthen.<\/p>\n Historically, stronger El Ni\u00f1o events have favored fewer Atlantic hurricanes overall and fewer threats to the Texas coast. Texas has not experienced a hurricane landfall during an El Ni\u00f1o year since 1950, but that does not mean tropical systems are off the table.<\/p>\n 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Arthur serves as a reminder that El Ni\u00f1o can reduce hurricane risk without eliminating it entirely.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Because El Ni\u00f1o is already established and expected to strengthen through the peak months of hurricane season, its influence is more likely to be felt across the Atlantic than if the pattern had developed later in the year.<\/p>\n What does El Ni\u00f1o mean for snow in Houston?<\/p>\n Most of the recent attention surrounding El Ni\u00f1o has focused on hurricane season, but its most reliable influence on Texas weather typically arrives during the winter months.<\/p>\n As El Ni\u00f1o strengthens, the Pacific jet stream often becomes more active and shifts farther south, increasing the number of storm systems crossing the southern United States.<\/p>\n That pattern tends to favor wetter weather than normal across much of Texas during winter and early spring. For Southeast Texas, that can mean more frequent storm systems, increased rainfall and a higher potential for flooding during particularly active periods.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n While El Ni\u00f1o often influences winter rainfall across Texas, its connection to winter temperatures is less consistent. NOAA\u2019s latest outlook shows equal chances of above-normal, near-normal and below-normal temperatures across much of Texas this winter.<\/p>\n National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/p>\n How much rain Houston ultimately receives will depend on how the atmosphere evolves in the coming months, but the broader climate signal favors a wetter winter.<\/p>\n Snowfall is one area where El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s influence<\/a> becomes less clear.<\/p>\n While El Ni\u00f1o tends to increase winter rainfall across Texas, Houston\u2019s snowiest winters have occurred during all phases of the ENSO cycle, including El Ni\u00f1o, La Ni\u00f1a\u00a0\u2014 the cooler counterpart to El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0\u2014 and neutral conditions.<\/p>\n Unlike temperatures, an El Ni\u00f1o winter is likely to produce above-normal precipitation across Texas, including in Houston.<\/p>\n National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/p>\n Since 1950, Houston has recorded measurable snowfall during four El Ni\u00f1o winters, five La Ni\u00f1a winters and three neutral winters. The city\u2019s snowiest winter on record, 1972-73, occurred during a strong El Ni\u00f1o, but several other notable snow seasons developed during La Ni\u00f1a and neutral years.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n In other words, El Ni\u00f1o may increase the odds of a wetter winter across Southeast Texas, but it does not necessarily increase the odds of snow.<\/p>\n Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures on Jan. 1, 2026, based on NOAA satellite data.<\/p>\n National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration By June 8, warmer water than normal had expanded across much of the tropical Pacific as El Ni\u00f1o strengthened. NOAA satellite data show conditions in early June.<\/p>\n National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/p>\n How strong could El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o become?<\/p>\n Over the past several months, unusually warm water has expanded across the tropical Pacific Ocean. At the same time, atmospheric patterns associated with El Ni\u00f1o have become more pronounced.<\/p>\n Trade winds have weakened across portions of the Pacific, rainfall has increased near the International Date Line and pressure patterns have shifted into a configuration typically associated with El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0\u2014 signs that the atmosphere is responding to the warming ocean.<\/p>\n HOUSTON WEATHER [SIMPLIFIED]: Sign up today to get weather forecasts and severe alerts sent directly to your phone.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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