{"id":368032,"date":"2026-07-10T09:08:08","date_gmt":"2026-07-10T09:08:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/368032\/"},"modified":"2026-07-10T09:08:08","modified_gmt":"2026-07-10T09:08:08","slug":"super-el-nino-odds-rise-sky-high-what-it-means-for-texas-weather","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/368032\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Super El Ni\u00f1o’ odds rise sky high \u2013\u2013 what it means for Texas weather"},"content":{"rendered":"

For months, alarm bells have been ringing about a “Super El Ni\u00f1o<\/a>” developing in the Pacific Ocean, hurling a subtropical jet stream toward the south. This means wetter seasons, higher odds of bonkers winter weather in Texas and a confusing fall for southerners. Now, forecasters say a potentially record-setting El Ni\u00f1o season<\/a> is all but guaranteed.<\/p>\n

Chances are skyrocketing that a powerful El Ni\u00f1o will flip the forecast for the foreseeable future on its head. A record-crushing El Ni\u00f1o could mean stronger snowstorms in the northern stretch of Texas, along with heavy rains and chillier winters. And that’s becoming increasingly likely.<\/p>\n

“There is an 81% chance of a very strong El Ni\u00f1o during October-December \u2026 that would rank among the largest El Ni\u00f1o events in the historical record going back to 1950,” a memo from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center<\/a> on Thursday, July 9, states. “In summary, El Ni\u00f1o continues and will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will last through early spring 2027.”<\/p>\n

This means more thunderstorms or rain are on the horizon if any East Pacific tropical activity is pulled into Texas, along with any storm patterns that might sweep in from the west.<\/p>\n

In San Antonio, that translates to upwards of 2 to 3 inches more rain<\/a> in the winter than average and an inch or two of extra precipitation in the summer. There’s already evidence of this impact as meteorologists brace for a 2-inch downpour in the coming days, as a heat dome in the northern U.S. hurls a cold front at Texas.<\/p>\n

During strong El Ni\u00f1o events, winter tends to be 2 to 3 degrees colder than normal, and summer tends to be a couple of degrees colder.<\/p>\n

“Following the end of El Ni\u00f1o, the next two to three years could end up being significantly drier, leading to drought conditions, especially in parts of the plains from West Texas to the Dakotas,” AccuWeather expert meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. “El Ni\u00f1o patterns tend to be persistent, meaning places that end up drier than average can stay that way for an extended period of time, possibly for months or even years.”<\/p>\n

While Texas could certainly use more rain after prolonged drought,<\/a> it’s unclear whether a strong El Ni\u00f1o could be the lone Hail Mary needed to restore evaporating creeks and lakes.<\/p>\n

Historically, a strong El Ni\u00f1o is followed by prolonged drought in Texas, often lasting years. According to long-range forecasts compiled by the National Weather Service, Texas tends to experience wetter and colder winters and summers.<\/p>\n

The Southwest and Southern Plains have been in drought for almost six years, meaning it’s going to take a lot of rain that actually seeps into aquifers to reverse the lasting impacts. What’s often overlooked is that brief bouts of heavy rainfall aren’t enough to replenish underground or above-ground water sources due to runoff. Saturated soil stops absorbing as much water, which would otherwise feed aquifers.<\/p>\n

Sign up for Afternoon Headlines, MySA’s free newsletter bringing you San Antonio’s top stories of the day.<\/a><\/p>\n

This article originally published at ‘Super El Ni\u00f1o’ odds rise sky high \u2013\u2013 what it means for Texas weather<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"For months, alarm bells have been ringing about a “Super El Ni\u00f1o” developing in the Pacific Ocean, hurling…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":368033,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[91777,27,29,28],"class_list":["post-368032","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-texas","tag-el-nino","tag-texas","tag-texas-headlines","tag-texas-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/368032","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=368032"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/368032\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/368033"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=368032"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=368032"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=368032"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}